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1-'if tariffs are an admission of US inability to compete, then why high-tech products that are not manufactured en masse in the US, like semiconductors and chemicals, have no tariffs due to, indeed, not being manufactured in the USA en masse?' Because some exempted chemicals and semiconducters (and Canadian fossil fuels) the USA cannot produce at all or cannot produce competitively but are needed by US manufacturers and or consumers. That does not refute the argument that tariffs seek to protect US manufacturers and producers from more efficient offshore producers.
2- ' China dominates increasingly (...) "increasingly" do not equates "majority", and making advancements do not means "gaining the lead". Further, advancing on some areas do not equates advancing on all areas.' This is cherrypicking semantics and ultimately evasive nonsense- China Does Already lead and significantly on robotics, EVs, Lithium batteries, Rare earths, Drones, PVs, LEDs, and infrastructure construction.
3- 'USA cannot source the rare earths it needs to produce military equipment
It absolutely does and will scale up production soon. You're relying on outright false information here and thus, again, unavoidably arriving to wrong conclusions.'
How long does it take to get up and running US or US allies based rare earths refining of all the rare earths that are absolutely essential to many military (and high tech civilian) applications? Ten years maybe at best, but even then all agree it will come at a massive cost- the US is simply incapable of doing that complex refining in a cost competitive way. It will/would take huge subsidies which free market end users cannot logically pay - only a determined government might. Japan failed to when facing exactly the same problem many years ago. https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-strong-armed-japan-over-rare-earths-its-a-lesson-for-the-u-s-230f8379?
4- 'it's important to remark that what works on China's "mixed" economy is precisely one part of that mix, free market capitalism, while the other part has managed not to damage the other one that much, yet still does. It's a net positive, not a no-negatives.'
This is where your ideology of unalloyed belief/faith in free markets is evident. Please see the example above of rare earths and their strategic importance and Chinas state lead and deliberate investment in achieving dominance and control over the global supply. China is led by a poliburo of mostly engineers. They know that of they do not deliver real gains for most Chinese they will lose their 'Mandate of Heaven'. They would be removed, and probably quite brutally. They face incentives and consequences the corporate sponsored politicians who front wealthy US corporate capital do not. China has quite deliberately and methodically directed capital primarily toward productive infrastructure and manufacturing where it enjoys significant advantages. It has built a supply chain and raw materials and infrastructure that build on the productive competitiveness of its manufacturing. It has actively and aggressively directed capital toward investment in technology and capacity that builds long term competitive advantage. They started their energy efficiency drive in the early 2000s to get better use of energy- an area where China is still highly dependent upon imported fossil fuels and its own coal reserves. Under the system individual businesses can and do enjoy astounding success- as long as you remain within the bounds of the Party Strategy. In contrast in the US Capital (banks and corporate lobbyists) own most of the politicians and have done for decades. There is a lot of anti-competitive rentseeking cronyism because the US electoral patronage system allows and encourages it. Chinas poliburo strategy of becoming the most efficient productive economy on the planet has succeeded because they were not bound to the dictates of the IMF and World Bank agendas of perpetuating western imperialism and its hegemony over resources and markets. They have beaten the wests crony capitalism with their deliberate mercantile mixed economy approach. Now they are forced to confront and contest the US legacy hegemony over international institutional structures and protocols. CIPS and mBridge to challenge SWIFT for example. The IMF post GFC invited China to join its board of reserve currency issuers because Chinas economy was by then already pivotal to the global banking system. With Hong Kongs return to Chinese sovereignty China can and must build its own financial infrastructure. It was via the cannon that Britain seized Hong Kong and via British banks in Hong Kong that China was made subject to British imperialism. That and the Opium Trade. Chinese have not forgotten the lesson of their 100 years of subsequent humiliation. Most in the west have.
Peter Hesslers excellent books on China though now a little dated, were also rather prescient and are still well worth a read, especially 'Country Driving' if you want an economic development perspective. Most in the west are woefully unaware of Chinas incredible history and current strategy and the connections between the two. Hessler sees it and describes it as a westerner living in China and does so brilliantly.
5- 'What should we think about Evergrande's disaster on China?' It is true that China is struggling to develop suitable markets for its newly and increasingly wealthy citizens to invest in - look at US and western history for many examples of how complex and fraught this process can be. Problems of success! So certainly China has relied overly upon real estate investment for citizens investment and that has to be addressed and broader more healthy investment options and markets need to be developed- and are being...but that is a challenge for sure. Regarding Evergrande specifically it was western funds that took perhaps the largest hit. https://fortune.com/2024/02/08/evergrande-liquidation-99-percent-haircut-hedge-funds/
I understand the huge resistance to accepting that US/western dominance is waning and may be on its last legs- it is a hugely confronting/frightening topic for those who do not understand the history of empires and the crucial role governments have always played in the wealth of nations. In the US the exceptional privilege of global reserve currency issuance and corporate patronage has corrupted the entire structure of the government and economy while China has purposely and determinedly positioned itself to respond to the reality of western imperialism and its late stage decadence. Those who will not acknowledge the degree to which US hegemony dominance is now being contested challenged cannot prepare for its consequences and even those who do, face a challenging and uncertain future.
That does not refute the argument that tariffs seek to protect US manufacturers and producers from more efficient offshore producers.
It absolutely does, in the most extreme way possible for it's the limit case: tariffs are not being imposed in an almost non-existent internal industry. Should your tariff logic apply, importing said products should be directly forbidden, and it's not, so your logic is false.
This is cherrypicking semantics and ultimately evasive nonsense
It's not, and indeed your cherry picked examples of leading industries are proof of that. You named 7 examples out of the literally millions the economy is composed off, and left outside equally important industries like, to name the most obvious, space launchers.
How long does it take to get up and running US or US allies based rare earths refining of all the rare earths that are absolutely essential to many military (and high tech civilian) applications? Ten years maybe at best, but even then all agree it will come at a massive cost- the US is simply incapable of doing that complex refining in a cost competitive way. It will/would take huge subsidies which free market end users cannot logically pay - only a determined government might.
God forbid the US tries to "invest" in mining and processing. Any state-dirven policy can only end in massive catastrophe. If the US is to do this right, it will simply reduce taxes and allow for free export and imports, and the industry will thrive quickly. The tech is already in place and operative, scaling might take time but with the help of Chinese imports it will be steadily sustainable. At that scale, 10 years are a blink of an eye, and if the US government makes sure entrepreneurship can develop freely and at low taxes, it will develop as fast.
China is led by a poliburo of mostly engineers.
Which is why China is still decades away from it's true potential. The day said politburo stops intervening, China will thrive in ways unprecedented in history.
They face incentives and consequences the corporate sponsored politicians who front wealthy US corporate capital do not.
The day the US gets rid of its crony capitalism and embraces the full free market, it will get back to its old glory days, indeed.
Chinas poliburo strategy of becoming the most efficient productive economy on the planet has succeeded because
it relies on slave labor.
It is true that China is struggling to develop suitable markets for its newly and increasingly wealthy citizens to invest in
Which is why said markets must never be developed by state intervention, for it can only lead to a predictable disaster like Evergrande which is, by the way, a blatant example of crony capitalism at the extreme in China.
I understand the huge resistance to accepting that US/western dominance is waning and may be on its last legs- it is a hugely confronting/frightening topic for those who do not understand the history of empires and the crucial role governments have always played in the wealth of nations.
I have no resistance either way, I'm ready to embrace China whenever it develops freely, for it will only be good for all. There is not and has never been anything remotely close to a "crucial role" of governments on economy other than causing damage to it, and China is an excellent example of a great population permanently hindered by interventionism. If today's China is what's left, imagine what it would be if the state would once and for all take off their boots from China's head! It would be the most epic revival in history. Just a glimpse of that is exactly what happened on Guangdong, which thrived exponentially only by being freed from the boot of the politburo.
Those who will not acknowledge the degree to which US hegemony dominance is now being contested
There hasn't been a single time since its inception in which the US dominance wasn't contested, and if everything goes well, this tendency will remain and hopefully equilibrate, for an equilibrium would mean that another power is at its level of producing goods and leading commerce, which is a good thing for all involved. Thinking in terms of "winners and losers" is a classical socialist fixed-pie fallacy. In reality, everyone wins, which is what's happening right now, in real time, right in front of you, otherwise China wouldn't sell and the US wouldn't buy, and vice versa. The only thing hindering further prosperity is the nefarious interventionism from both governments.
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1- No it does not- you have identified where tariffs are exempted on imports where there is no significant US production- this is an except, it is not the broader role and purpose of the tariffs- again these are exceptions and the exceptions are anyway to preserve supply for remain US producers who need the materials as inputs for for consumers. 2-The 'free market' cannot and will not produce refined rare earths outside of China because China has the competitive advantage in the refining! Please read the article I linked where Japan faced exactly the same problem in 2010 and could not fix it even with a large investment in one supplier in Australia- it is not a problem 'free markets' can fix! That is the problem with your blind faith in 'free markets'! 3-Chinese wages have increased in real terms at an astounding rate- far exceeding any western economy. Certainly there are low wages relative to western values still but women can recieve a state funded pension at 50, and men at 55 and a lot of basic goods are still much more affordable. The US economy is heavily reliant upon illegal immigrants for domestic help and manual labour. 4-US wealth and power is not and never was solely derived from 'free markets' Remember the Banana Republics and the how many foreign interventions since the democratically elected leader of Iran was removed in the 1950s. The US is an empire built upon power projection and resource and trade hegemony. 5- I suspect you do not have a deep understanding of China (please see Hesslers excellent and informative book/s on China!) and what a Chinese global dominance could mean. IMO its a bit like predicting the future price of Bitcoin- there are a very wide range of potential outcomes. Yes Chinese hegemony could be better in some ways to western imperialism, but in some ways it could be worse.
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again these are exceptions and the exceptions are anyway to preserve supply for remain US producers who need the materials as inputs for for consumers.
Which proves that tariffs are not driven by a "recognition of lack of competence", otherwise those products would be either forbidden or have the highest tariffs. Thus tariffs are exactly like the Berlin Wall: not a way to prevent others from getting in but only a way to keep the US citizens from breaking free from the governmental caste.
The 'free market' cannot and will not produce refined rare earths outside of China
Already doing it and on it's way to scale up operations. Natural consequence of allowing the free market to take the lead once and for all.
The US economy is heavily reliant upon illegal immigrants for domestic help and manual labour.
Which in all cases are always much better off than an average chinese citizen, both in terms of wages and workload. Wages are nothing if you can not live and the chinese people have been indoctrinated by the state to be willing slaves with the 996 slave work culture.
US wealth and power is not and never was solely derived from 'free markets'
Do the math. Do you really think that current US wealth and power comes from the fact it harvested bananas from Guatemala? Really? It doesn't, it comes from the fact it established itself as a world free-trade leader, of which even China benefited from greatly.
and what a Chinese global dominance could mean
I don't need to know anything to certainly predict that any dominance established on the basis of governmental intervention will be bad from any country. That's why I praise Chinese openness and condemn Trump's brute protectionism. But I'm certain both powers will equilibrate at some point, the key factor being that they depend heavily on each other.
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Exempting tariffs on some products which US does not or cannot produce does not disprove that tariffs generally are designed to protect un-competitive US manufacturing. That is simply flawed logic. US is investing in some rare earths processing but if you read about the topic with any depth including the article I linked earlier you will understand experts say it will not be competitive and will take decades to get supply of the full suite of rearte earths essential to military and high tech application- at that would come at huge cost to government and is impossible without subsides! The 'free market' cannot and will not fix this problem despite your blind faith in it.
US imperialist strong arming other nations has been absolutely fundamental to current US wealth and dominance...ever since and increasingly since the Banana Republics era set the pattern. Post WW2 US took over the operations of the Britsh Empire in a relatively peaceful transition- do not expect Chinas rise to dominance, if it occurs, to be so amicable.
Your blind faith in free markets solving all problems is flawed- just look at history- there has never been sustained wealth anywhere without government leadership, providing property rights, security, strategy and infrastructure.
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Exempting tariffs on some products which US does not or cannot produce does not prove that tariffs are designed to protect uncompetitive US manufacturing. That is simply flawed logic.
Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. That's the opposite of what you where affirming at first.
is impossible without subsides! The 'free market' cannot and will not fix this problem despite your blind faith in it.
I just showed you it's already happening. The "free market" is about pure reality only. I just showed you that what's happening, in real life, is the opposite of what your articles cite in imaginary theory. Imaginary theory is for socialism and state-driven policies. Free market is about real life and actual facts.
ever since and increasingly since the Banana Republics era set the pattern
Please give me an example. Harvesting bananas once from Guatemala 100 years ago do not justifies the US today's wealth and dominance. Give me a modern day example.
do not expect Chinas rise to dominance to be so amicable
It will have to or it will fail. And as of now, in its actions, China shows it understands it can only rise on amicable terms.
just look at history
I did, that's why I know from the facts that only free markets are capable of producing wealth. Anything that says different is invariably government propaganda, and indeed comes only from government. Stop reading government propaganda, start reading history books, and you will see by yourself.
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The article I referenced refers to rare earth processing/refining being uneconomic in the west compared to Chinas efficiencies. Where have you shown the free market developing refining capacity for these rare earths without the help of government subsidies- such developments simply do not exist or are so small they will never credibly provide a viable alternative to the multiple rare earths Chinas mixed economy produces as part of it strategic mercantile government led economy. Please read the article about Japans experience with this and how now, 15 years later they have not developed their own supplies but are instead dependent upon China for most refined rare earths supply.
China is increasingly bold in its approach especially since Trump was forced to back down on his absurd 100+% tariffs. As soon as the Chinese responded by cutting of supply of rare earths Trump was forced to go begging for a return to more amicable negotiations- it is USA that is now on the back foot in many ways- with its decimated productive and infrastructure capacity and its chronic addiction to debt- while China continues to enjoy Trillion dollar annual trade surpluses compare to USAs 50 plus years of chronic trade and fiscal deficits.
Yes free markets do produce wealth- but nowhere in modern history has enduring wealth and prosperity existed without strong stable government, rule of law and centralised power projection enabling resource and market access.