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42 sats \ 3 replies \ @OT 7 Aug \ on: Best future price models bitcoin
A 20% CAGR might be conservative enough to make plans for the future.
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42 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Aug
Is it realistic though? Other than starting from very specific tops, has that happened over a multi year period?
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @OT 7 Aug
I think that's a pretty low ball expectation. You could start it at a lower point like 100k, 80k or 58k.
Bitcoin can surprise you to the upside or down. I really think that the 4 year cycles are gone and that we won't see the large drawdowns we used to.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Aug
I’ll start playing around with different scenarios. It does look like 20% is more plausible than I thought and CAGR has been steadily declining (as should be expected).
I think the cycles partly depend on our belief in them. If we stop expecting big drawdowns, then we might start seeing them again.
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