it's probably best to begin this analysis by looking at the following trends: demographics, cultural, economic. but first, we gotta imagine some scenarios.
this is gunna be based on the western world. the collectibles market will probably be completely different in places like asia, africa etc. for example recently spoke to a freind of mine in Nigeria and asked him what people collect there, he said people like to collect lots of things, like beads and african tribal art, e.g. masks. beads really caught my attention, guess that's a throw back to african bead money.
anyway, i think that before you can imagine what's gunna be the best performing collector item over the next 25 years, you gotta image what the world will look like in 25 years and how we'll get there.
there's always the possibility of a break from the current trajectory, a black swan. many things could trigger that. historically we'd be talking about natural disaster, war, social upheaval or plague. however in todays era there are further threats, such as the pending GAI apocalypse, environmental collapse triggered by human activity and large scale environment pollution, nuclear and other big boy weapon systems being developed that can wreak havoc, bio-engineered plague, economic collapse from the largest monetary expansion bubble in history. anyway you get the idea, we face a lot of unknowns and potential risks.
in most of these scenarios you can picture a fragmented society, with weak or no central state the way they exist today. we'd imagine local communities banding together and forming self governing bodies that start to scale and form into larger units such as confederations and small city states.
demographics - this type of society would skew young
cultural - probably a preference towards autocratic patriarchal and militaristic
economic - likely a very basic economic system. informal tit-for-tat exchange based on trust, barter, hard assets & food hoarded
i imagine this type of society to thrive in a rural setting with an emphasis of agriculture, self-reliance and self-defense. probably the most collectible items would be things that also convey status and that could be worn, since people likely wouldn't have a huge amount of possessions and would like to stay ready to move any moment.
i imagine high-quality knives from before the black swan would do very well, as well as other weapons. however in such an apocalyptic scenario there'd probably be a huge supply glut relative to the surviving population, so there'd probably be enough to go around, at least until the extant supply has rusted, rotted or been forever lost.
high-proof alcohol would fetch a hefty premium, especially aged products like whiskeys. these require a lot of stability and a decent amount of infrastructure to produce, and as they are consumed the supply will dwindle
cigarettes, same as prison yards - this is the defacto currency in hard times.
assuming current trends continue, without a big break from the trajectory humanity is on, we can identify some trends:
boomer generation will be gone, and all of their wealth will be in the hands of other generations. this will be a big shift because currently, the boomer gen. holds a large percentage of the worlds net worth.
continued digitalization of everything. young people being born today will be immersed their entire lives in a digital matrix. entertainment, socializing an gaming, shopping. even things like travel all be done immersively without leaving your screen.
the rich get richer, although the boomers wealth has been spread across the generations, those generations will be unlikely to hold onto it. they'll have to spend it to survive, not being able to afford a home, the money will be spent on rent, trickling up the food chain to the wealthy. inflation and taxes will eat away at it
business will continue to grow bigger, food, technology, clothing, etc all manufactured by large companies. mom and pop stores will continue to close en-mass
as the work-force is replaced with automation, increasing unemployment for the unskilled.
cost of living will continue to rise
demographics - continue to skew old, as people have fewer and fewer kids
cultural - highly digitalized, extreme celebrity/infuencer culture. some counter-culture trends are taking root such as dropping out and moving rural to cheap locations and becoming self-sufficient, populist political movements,
economic - stagnant, the masses struggle to get by with high stress, long work hours. but pockets of lavish wealth exist living in gated opulence.
the best collectibles gains here will be in the high end of collectibles. the plebs won't have disposable income to spend, so focusing on high end stuff would be best.
whoever said clothes is is probably on to something. but i'd not choose run of the mill adidas tops or trainers, etc. if you pick out some clothes that are high-end today, $1k-10k per items - carefully selected - store them well, kept in perfect condition, in 20-25 years they could fetch a large premium.
although it's probably not a popular opinion around here, NFTs could have a comeback. much like how pokemon cards made a comback 20 years after their initial hype, we could see a nostalgic comeback among the high-end NFTs that fetched insane premiums during the 2022 hype cycle.
now days you can buy high quality english made tools for next to nothing. the demand is low because most people don't work with their hands anymore, and the supply is still quite high. however, as those boomers pass on, their old tools end up at yard sales and dumping grounds. the supply will shrink and, additionally, as people struggle to make ends meet they'll be forced to fix their own leaks, do their own house renovations, fix their broken furniture, etc and also to learn new hands on skills that can't be automated. money will be tight and they won't be able to afford new expensive tools, or new cheap tools that last a few months. they'll buy up these old tools and the prices will 10x. for example right now you can buy an 100 year old english made hand-plane, made out of high quality steel, cast iron with rosewood handles. $30. ridiculously cheap, easily has room to 10x and still be a good deal.
although it's not a collectible asset, rural housing in cheap locations around the world will out-perform it's stagnanting urban counterpart. my knowledge only extends to europe here, but for example, right now you can purchase houses in rural parts of italy and spain for well under $10k. as people struggle to make ends meet in big expensive cities, people will move to the countryside. especially young families looking for a higher quality of life. and those who can work remotely.
in this future society becomes less divided and more unified. we see a flourishing of human potential, ideas flow freely, new forms of art and self-expression burst into the collective imagination, patroned by wealthy bitcoiners like in 15th century florence. many bitcoin citadels have sprung up across the world and act oases of freedom and sovereignty. the overbearing nation state that seems so powerful today, is all but an anachronism. people are freer, wealthy, happier, healthier, have more leisure and less stress. bitcoin, digital capital, empowered humanity and drives progress.
I think in an optimistic future like this where people can clearly see that bitcoin has helped to bring about a new era, we'd see a lot of nostalgia for cypherpunk material. problem is, most of it is digital.
demographics - i'd like to think that in a healthy and flourishing society people will have more kids. they'll have time to dedicate to their children, as well as more quality time to spend with their partners 🛌💘
cultural - ??? - needs thought
economic - more evenly distributed but with wealthy capital holders allocating their resources as they see fit. less wealth redistribution towards counterproductive ends such as war and over-prices social services
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Can you fill the in the above for the hyper-bitcoinization scenario?
I'm taking a break from this exercise now but will come back to it later. Great way to spend an hour or two :)
drivers
scenarios
doom scenario
nothing ever happens
human flourishing