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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Turdinthepunchbowl 25 Jul \ parent \ on: With Tesla's Sales Slumping, Its Valuation Looks Ludicrous. Stacker_Stocks
Thanks for the response. Here are my thoughts. Sorry for the long wall of text, hope it makes sense.
- from a household perspective, I envision a future where less people actually buy/own/maintain a household robot helper...instead you pay a company like a cleaner to come in and those are bots. Which while cool, would mean a smaller addressable market than a bot in every home which is the stated goal. Maybe I'm different and it's obviously one person account, I don't even want a Roomba vacuum or ring door bell, I'm probably not gonna want a human sized bot walking around haha.
1a) This addresses thoughts on point 1 and 3. From an industrial/commercial application, I think they are maybe way behind, and perhaps too broadly focused. Industrial process are highly specialized. You can't necessarily use the same hardware/software/AI to pick apples in a grove as you would manufacture things or auto sort/retrieve parts in a warehouse. There are large and established companies already in this space. Check out ABB out of Switzerland, Boston Dynamics, or even AutoStore an automated sort and retrieval for distribution. It's a crowded space with real life applications already in use. I don't pay too close attention, but I've only ever heard of Optimus and not other ambitions of Tesla robotics. If Optimus is it, then they may carve out a niche in household, but Boston Dynamics also has done some impressive humanoid robot things. Can't forget whatever the Chinese create either. So I'm of the opinion this is not the game changer for their valuation it's believed to be and maybe more difficult/crowded than you think.
- While it can never be exactly proven, a huge amount of Tesla valuation is tied to Musk himself. That premium gives them access to capital to do massive gambles like the cyber truck/cab/solar city/Optimus. But the shine is wearing off a bit with his behaviors and external focus (not just with DOGE, but SpaceX, Boring, xAI, etc). With revenues/profits shrinking, that Musk premium could reduce dramatically. I see the parallel to Steve Jobs, but there was a time the board would have ousted Jobs. That same control is not there as the board would never oust Musk. Tim Cook came in after Jobs and is as vanilla as it comes to keep the ship steady. Apple is also hugely profitable. Net income of like $95 billion with a PE ratio of 33. Tesla on the other hand net income last year was $7 billion with a PE ratio of 183. So I guess what I'm getting at it Tim Cook could take over from Jobs without issue because the valuation of Apple was not hugely tied to Jobs and the business was massively profitable, just needed a steady hand to keep the train going, didn't need new game changers to justify the valuation. Tesla is quite different from that where Musk is as much of the brand as the products, but the valuation needs game changing innovations to justify. So if Musk left, tons of that value is gone with it, and much of the things Musk developed outside of Tesla (Rockets/AI/etc) Tesla need to either lease from his other companies or will eventually need to pay/but those companies.