Here's what Claude and ChatGPT think is the most likely scenario:

"Strategy survives the next 5 years but as a shadow of its former self, with existing shareholders suffering 80-95% dilution. The company becomes a cautionary tale about the limits of financial engineering, regardless of whether Bitcoin reaches high prices. The complex web of preferred stocks and convertible debt creates a doom loop where each financing makes the next one more expensive and dilutive. The preferred stock offerings (STRC, STRK, STRF, STRD) are essentially desperate attempts to buy time, but each new debt issue continues to worsen the situation, diluting the equity they've been issuing against"

Odds:

Whether this is a good analysis, time will tell (I certainly can't).