pull down to refresh

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 7h \ on: Microstrategy will Bring Bitcoin Down? Or Merely Acting as a Channel? bitcoin
The analysis is good but there is a basic flaw in logic. He correlates MSTR to FTX/luna/GBTC discount crashes to a potential MSTR unwind. But those events caused the crashes. An MSTR unwind would occur after a 75% drawdown. Doesn’t seem the same to me.
Still it’s fair to say that’s a lot of Bitcoin in one entities hands and the market probably doesn’t continue buying MSTRs Bitcoin for 1.9x the price of Bitcoin itself for very much longer and we don’t know what the knock on effects of that will be. A 75% drawdown seems unlikely though but I suppose possible.
write
preview
20 sats \ 2 replies \ @optimism 6h
A 75% drawdown seems unlikely though but I suppose possible.
Happened 4 times thus far, the last time over the course of 2022.
reply
100 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 5h
Yes from a much lower, more volatile market cap, without institutions or passive capital involved. Again, not saying it isn't going to happen but it is a lot less likely than previous cycles. Unless of course we get some massive exogenous effect like WW3.
I suppose if Bitcoin 23x off the bottom like it did last cycle to reach a new ATH we could have another 75% drawdown. But I don't think the top will be anywhere near a 23x. Less magnitude of moves in both ways makes the most sense.
reply
40 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 5h
Maybe, I personally don't care either way. Drawdown means more extractable sats per hour... so that's great, but it gets evened out with more sats being extracted on the expense side...
reply