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42 sats \ 3 replies \ @SimpleStacker 23h \ parent \ on: Are Pro-Natalists the Real Malthusians? econ
I guess my experience with the econ field isn't what Austrians experienced when they historically started diverging.
I suspect that most modern economists have a humbler view of modeling than the typical Austrian thinks. The reason they keep making models is because that's what gets published. The modern economist would probably defend it much the same way I would: "We're not saying that the models are accurate for forecasting, or even that believable: but they help us think through a certain issue more rigorously than without it."
Ahhhhhhh …. Yes! They are getting paid to research and publish those models by the state, mostly. You are saying that is the reason besides more rigorous thinking for the models? OK, that is reasonable. The accuracy of the models is the unreasonable part of the deal, though. They seem to breakdown at their limits all the time.
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By the way, I'm not saying that modern economists are humble. Far from it, and often they're way too confident about their knowledge of the economy.
But I don't think the reason for their overconfidence is because they believe the models per se. I think it's just plain old human nature: "I'm the expert and you're not; This is what all the other experts believe; Holding this belief is what will keep me looking smart among my peers; etc"
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Yes, expertise in a given area trumps all, doesn’t it. Except when other experts say differently. But, these experts are backed by state approval, aren’t they?
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