I go all over the place on this. I think the fact that elites are so corrupt in a weird way actually helps keep the world together in a sick fashion - they have the most to lose - it occurs to me that Russia and China both have elite classes that would have a lot of incentive to insulate themselves from war.

Having said that, the youth of China have a real nationalistic bent to them, and I’ve heard some crazy shit - like shooting down Pelosi’s plane when she was visiting Taiwan. I don’t preclude it. I do think Taiwan is the main game - and likely China will blockade first, rather than risk outright war.