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40 sats \ 2 replies \ @Wumbo 8 Jul \ on: Run Differential Be Damned Stacker_Sports
I am not Statistician but I have never felt run differential is a great stat (Total RS - RA).
I would like to see average of each game run differential over the season.
Game 1: Won 10-4
Game 2: Won 3-2
Game 3: Lost 2-4
Game 1 Delta: 6
Game 2 Delta 1
Game 3 Delta -2
Average: 1.667 (5 runs / 3 Games)
I think (I could be mathematically mistaken) it would show better how close the team is winning games by.
I think it is useful but can be pretty messy. Especially the way teams give up on games now. The Dodgers lost 18-1 the other day and had position players pitching. Maybe it evens out over the course of the year and they win a game by 17 runs but maybe not and it takes two weeks to make up those -17 runs. I don't think the Dodgers are any less of a team because they punted on a game they knew they couldn't win.
I would like to see a version of run differential that throws out games over a certain spread. I want to know how well teams perform in 1-4 run games not how well they perform when losing or winning by 10. Last night is a prime example for the Blue Jays. They were ahead 8-1 against the White Sox and tried to use a guy who has never pitched in the majors before to finish the last 3 innings of the game. He gave up 3 runs. In that case I don't think the final score 8-4 really captured how dominant the Jays were.