Augur builds on the mempool-based approach pioneered by Felix Weis's source code powering WhatTheFee estimates. The core insight is that Augur focuses on what actually drives future confirmations: current mempool state, transaction arrival rates, and the inherent randomness of Bitcoin mining.

Augur calculates the minimum fee rate required for your desired confidence level. For a 6-block target with 95% confidence, we determine the fee that accounts for worst-case scenarios—like only getting 3 blocks in an hour instead of the expected 6.