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The Jobs Market Puzzle (Financial Times, Robert Armstrong)www.ft.com/content/f20c215b-755e-476d-98f6-2c9af683ff44
1101 sats \ 6 comments \ @denlillaapan 12h econ
Some conflicting and interesting graphs here:
Basically: is U.S. unemployment rising or falling? is the economy doing well or poorly? Fuck knows, really. Sideways, mostly (...while Rome burns, we might add)
it is worth revisiting the labour market today, both to provide context for tomorrow and because the data is interesting and remains something of a puzzle. Both the unemployment rate and the prime age participation rate are equally consistent, and are at strong levels relative to history (4.2 per cent and 83 per cent). All of this supports the Federal Reserve’s view that the job market is strong enough for interest rate cuts to wait until we know more about the effect of tariffs on inflation.

TL; DR: Not many people are getting laid off, but those that are laid off are having trouble finding jobs.

...While these numbers are not big enough to hit the overall employment picture, the trend here is ugly enough to keep an eye on.
Archived here: https://archive.md/sFXrZ
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114 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 11h
There are about 100,000 feds on administrative leave right now. They don’t count as unemployed yet but as far as the job market is concerned they are unemployed.
Some of them are getting hired into new jobs which crowds out other job seekers.
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @denlillaapan OP 8h
tots forgot that thing... the only lasting, memorable event of Elon madness?
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7 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 8h
Killing USAID was probably his crowning achievement.
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @optimism 11h
Good point.
Interestingly in dealing with federal workers in the past there weren't much I'd want to hire... Mindset thing?
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105 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 11h
They got used to less demanding jobs.
I recall a study from many years ago that showed a huge difference in how many different things private sector workers do than government workers, for the same job description.
The takeaway is that government experience should be heavily discounted when comparing applicants.
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33 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 11h
TL; DR: Not many people are getting laid off, but those that are laid off are having trouble finding jobs.
Wasn't that the same in the 1980s and the early 2000s? Trouble always starts with hiring freezes and small reorgs with limited layoffs, but the latter doesn't automatically mean that there is actually going to be larger scale trouble.
I'm not sure how much elasticity there is right now. If watching everything from a sats standard then everything normie is on fire. But that's probably the echo chamber building in bias?
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