To believe that the euro will play a larger role in international monetary affairs is laughable. To the very small extent that asset managers and foreign currency reserves are shifted away from dollars, they’re replaced not by euros (or pounds) but by smaller, non-traditional currencies.
Fact checked this with COVER data up to 2024. Below is relative growth (as part of the whole) of each currency, indexed with Q1 2017=100 (because that's since when CNY got tracked)
USD shrank to .9 but has been there since 2021; EUR is stable. Everything else grew, with "other", AUD, CAD and JPY keeping some momentum, and GBP slowly growing. CNY... looks like love-hate. Would be interesting to learn what 2025 will bring and see if CNY can regain the momentum, and whether EUR actually does something.
I share the bearish sentiment on EUR, fwiw. Not because I think Europe is incapable of reversing the trend, but rather because the EU overlords are distracting themselves in too many problems (the "over-regulated" part) and therefore will always be mediocre, unless they get lucky.
Many Euros seem to be eager for change though: but it won't be done by the current elites, and I have sincere doubts about all the runner ups. It all feels like the same totalitarian democracy crap that just causes stagnation. If Euros ever figure out that government is the last resort, not the first, maybe there will be a recovery.
COVERdata up to 2024. Below is relative growth (as part of the whole) of each currency, indexed withQ1 2017=100(because that's since when CNY got tracked)