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At this point treasury companies doing what they do is well-worn, and we'll see how it all shakes out in the end (#1019584, #1019573). But that's a question for later.
A question for now is: how much is this insanity propping up the price? Everyone keeps asking how there are all these ETF inflows, and Saylor is buying this staggering amount, and other companies are copying him, and there are conferences in Washington, and the President keeps talking about it, and the price is only a little bit up? With literally everything going right?
What happens when the music stops?
60 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 10h
I guess this has always happened. Early adopters sell as price goes up. It's just now they're selling to a different type of buyer. Saylor likes to say that once these companies have their bags that they are off the market forever. I don't think we can assume that until it happens.
Still, it's a bit disappointing seeing individuals selling to corporates.
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108 sats \ 0 replies \ @xz 14h
I think the delay between psychology of market participants and the historical price movement keeps growing. I dont mean the marketcap, just longer delays for the psychological changes to affect charts. Probably also the past few years of growing fomo in precious metals, central banks and retail.
I don't know whether ETFs that have mNAV valuations are schemes devised by bad people but I'd sure like to read into the South Sea Bubble sometime. I guess that probably financed debt which was not all written off by bankruptcy? Marrying global finance schemes with Bitcoin seems to have weakened price volatility.
My guess is psychologically, whenever there will be negative news on paper markets, sell-offs will gyrate the long-term psychology, but short-term and long-term are on seperate trajectories.
Is the music stopping on 21m? I feel we're approaching the stages in issuance and hash-rate when this is just how it plays out.
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27 sats \ 1 reply \ @Scoresby 14h
Isn't another way to read the headline: People sell $531.9 Million in Bitcoin! What happens when this stops?
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Yeah. The question is, which of those actions is more entropic? After you shake the snow globe, where does the snow settle?
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73 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 17h
The price goes down. Then people step in and buy and it goes back up over time. Just like every cycle.
Everyone seems so focused on the fact the price isn’t going up despite all the demand but that’s because there is a ridiculously low amount of leverage in bitcoin right now considering it’s a bull market.
Bitcoin moves in impulses. I think once the Fed starts cutting rates we will see another impulse up and then another consolidation.
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45 sats \ 1 reply \ @0410e50295 12h
Very similar to ODELL prediction, solid shouts from both of you. I'm here for it 🫡
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Sounds about right to me. I am not sure we stay above 100k in the next bear market. I think we might pull back to 70-80k but we will see. I do expect the next bear to be less deep than others.
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Depends what kind of shenanigans they're getting up to. If they're simply custodying bitcoin on peoples' behalf and not lending it out, rehypothecating it, borrowing against it, or playing other such games, then these companies and their shareholders should be able to weather a storm. Otherwise, this whole thing could end in tears.
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There will be less Bitcoins for everybody else.
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I didn't know the music had started playing yet.
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