Over the past three days, the US has bombed nuclear facilities in Iran. Russia has responded by saying there are countries willing to supply Tehran with nuclear weapons. And the Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes.

If the market were truly pricing in a long-term conflict, the impact would be MUCH greater. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz alone would justify oil above $120, analysts say.

But the most interesting detail is off many people's radar: the uranium ETF (URA) has soared more than 80% since its April bottom.

The market may be ignoring the risk of a long war, but it is not ignoring a possible nuclear escalation.