https://beta.predyx.com/market/nba-champion
I was about to post this - but who can be faster than ⚡️@grayruby. But still there's some opportunity.
pull down to refresh
https://beta.predyx.com/market/nba-champion
I was about to post this - but who can be faster than ⚡️@grayruby. But still there's some opportunity.
@mega_dreamer is Predyx a LMSR-based AMM model?
seeing the current percentages for this market do you think this would be a cheat script?
import numpy as np import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # LMSR Cost function: C(q) = b * ln(sum(exp(q_i / b))) # Here, we track two outcomes: Pacers and Thunder def lmsr_cost(q1, q2, b): return b * np.log(np.exp(q1 / b) + np.exp(q2 / b)) # Marginal price of outcome 1 (Pacers) def lmsr_price(q1, q2, b): return np.exp(q1 / b) / (np.exp(q1 / b) + np.exp(q2 / b)) # Simulate cost of buying shares def simulate_lmsr_buy(initial_q1, initial_q2, b, buy_shares, outcome='q1'): # Determine which quantity we are increasing q1, q2 = initial_q1, initial_q2 new_q1 = q1 + buy_shares if outcome == 'q1' else q1 new_q2 = q2 + buy_shares if outcome == 'q2' else q2 # Initial and final cost initial_cost = lmsr_cost(q1, q2, b) final_cost = lmsr_cost(new_q1, new_q2, b) # Total cost to buy `buy_shares` of the selected outcome cost = final_cost - initial_cost # Final probability (price) final_price = lmsr_price(new_q1, new_q2, b) return cost, final_price # Parameters b = 10000 # liquidity parameter (higher b = more stable market) initial_q1 = 0 initial_q2 = 0 buy_shares = 50000 # Simulate buying 50K shares for Pacers (q1) cost_pacers, final_price_pacers = simulate_lmsr_buy(initial_q1, initial_q2, b, buy_shares, 'q1') # Now simulate how many shares of Thunder (q2) are needed to bring the price back to 0.50 # We'll iterate to find that point def find_thunder_shares_to_balance(q1, initial_q2, b, target_price=0.5): for shares in range(1000, 100000, 100): q2 = initial_q2 + shares price = lmsr_price(q1, q2, b) if abs(price - target_price) < 0.001: cost = lmsr_cost(q1, q2, b) - lmsr_cost(q1, initial_q2, b) return shares, cost, price return None, None, None thunder_shares, cost_thunder, final_price_thunder = find_thunder_shares_to_balance(buy_shares, 0, b) (cost_pacers, final_price_pacers), (thunder_shares, cost_thunder, final_price_thunder)Result
((43135.68167929173, 0.9933071490757152), (50000, 6864.318320708269, 0.5))
I just mean to ask if it works, I won't be using it real time, I was thinking of incorporating something of this sort in one of my projects
Yes - Predyx is LMSR based at this time, but eventually we'll upgrade to Continuous Double Auction (CDA) as we gain more trading traction.
I don't understand python much - but from first glance I can tell LMSR cost and price function looks correct.
initial_q1 = 0, initial_q2 = 0I'm assuming this is number of shares in each option (OKC = 0, IND = 0)Let me know if you're able to make this work correctly:
find_thunder_shares_to_balanceOn Predyx - I don't think you can see the exact numbers of shares on each options in GUI(we'll make it available soon), but I can get you the exact number from the database so that you validate your code against it.
People like @Undisciplined would love to get their hands on a clean executable of this code. If you throw in a minimal GUI - I'm sure people would happily give you some 💰fat bounty for it.
On it cap!
Indeed and then I need the time to play around with it.
That's will make the market more accessible to both sellers and buyers!
The real arbitrage opportunity is there in the Fifa Club World Cup.
Botafago defeated PSG and noone's bought them yet... Obviously except me. ;) https://beta.predyx.com/market/fifa-club-world-cup-winner-1749816663
That's a loot! @ 0.03 sats/share
That's 0.03/share.
I was surprised to see @grayruby and @Undisciplined weren't following it. Or maybe they have already decided that PSG is a winner. They need to learn about LatAm teams are much stronger on paper.
That team is currently +2900 to win on FanDuel. I have no idea who they are. I know nothing about these teams. I am just putting sats on the top 4 or 5 favourites. If that changes I will recalibrate my bets.
I don't want you change your strategy but here's what I take guidance from.
https://polymarket.com/event/fifa-club-world-cup-winner
I don’t look at shitcoin platforms. Regardless they also have PSG favourite and this team 3%. It’s the same.
OMG 😱
Fanduel is a Bitcoin platform?
Anyways, I don't look for bets on other platforms. I just looked at them to show you but will you stay away from Fanduel and some others you've mentioned before.
No it’s not a bitcoin platform. It’s Vegas odds.
Dang, no link?
Gracias Amigo!