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Pretty cool chart.
That being said, unfortunately the problem is something else. The asset that the miners protect also goes up in price/value in that process. And the existing ASICs go down in price as they become unprofitable.
So the security budget should be expressed as a percentage of whatever they are protecting. You can measure it in sats or fiat, since the unit is in both the numerator and denominator, it goes away.
If you have a safe full of gold, and your security guards get their salary paid in gold but constantly halved, your gold safe becomes less secure with time even if gold price goes up. Maybe never unsecure enough, but it's undeniable that the security budget decreases relative to the “jackpot” size.
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Block work is cumulative (that's why we call it a
block chain), so all this means is that you have to wait more confirmations before you consider something safe, and actually monitor getchaintips - which you should already be doing but realistically, there's a 99% chance that a reader of this comment doesn't even know what the hell that is.You want to be keeping a real eye on reorgs the more sats you have at stake in recent blocks, and the lower the block reward, the more you want to keep an eye out. If this is what you mean, you are correct. You should also do it today though. If you don't, your complacency will come back to bite you when you get doublespent.
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Maybe, but the further down you re-org, the more mining rewards you reverse too. So let's say you have a 100 BTC utxo you got from me at block
t. I selfish-mine, without publishing, a doublespend to myself in block t'. At t+100 I publish my superior work chain of t'+105, but now, not only do I economically harm you, I also harm 100 blocks worth of block rewards that I've just reversed.The question is now: are 100 miners + your 100BTC enough to make y'all say
naw brah, and preciousblock t (and with that invalidate t')? I think yes. Now I have to start all over, lost ALL my fiat and you still have your 100BTC.This is why the real enemy is the one with a fiat printer: the state, the bank, the saylor.
BTC/<fiat>, but note that it could also become<energy>/BTCon a Bitcoin standard - there is an element inside the "security budget" that can be adapted to any reduction on the reward side. Since miners collectively control the liquidity of newly minted coins and fees, they have a large influence on these exchange rates.BTC/<fiat>miners need the exchange rate to go up and they have some influence over this, or in the case of an<energy>/BTCpair, the cost of energy has to go down.