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Literally the wealthiest generation in human history is the first one to think they're too poor to have kids.
On one hand, I can certainly relate to the sentiments, but on the other, it's clearly incongruous with reality.
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We may be the wealthiest generation, but has median income kept with the median cost to raise a kid? A couple of factors are pushing costs of raising a family up:
  • Prevalence of dual income families. This not only increases the demand for things like childcare by sheer number of families requiring it, but also by making it so that those families are able to pay more by having a higher income.
    • This has the side effect of making it even more cost prohibitive to raise a family on a single income.
  • Shortage of housing, at least in western countries. For whatever reason, housing production isn't keeping pace with demand, probably due to regulations and NIMBYism.
  • Shortage of quality educational resources. Unsurprisingly, in such a heavily regulated sector, supply isn't keeping up properly with demand because of the lack of price signal. Some of that price signal is actually loaded onto the housing market, because of attendance zoning. But because the revenue of the housing market isn't always tied directly into the education suppliers, there are all sorts of incentive misalignments.
  • Braindrain of female workforce from educational sector. I heard this thesis from someone and don't know how true it is statistically, but it seems to make sense. As more jobs have opened up to females in different industries, one side effect has been a drain of female talent away from teaching. IMO the solution isn't to go back to relegating females to teaching, but it's to increase the desirability of the teaching profession overall.
  • Outdated expectations. All of the above could still be affordable for most people, if they're willing to spend a huge fraction of their income on their children. In fact, most of us could probably do that and still live a materially more abundant life than our parents (except in terms of housing, probably). But because most of us grew up in families where it wasn't the norm to spend so much income on the children, we see that as abnormal. I think if people reorient their financial expectations, it would feel less daunting to have kids.
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Your last bullet point is basically what my response was going to be and it points to the resolution of what I was perceiving as a contradiction.
It is more unaffordable (costlier) to have kids than it used to be, because there are more other things adults spend their resources on now. Even if it's easier than it ever has been to afford kids (which we may disagree on), the opportunity cost is higher than ever too.
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Globally, all countries with GDP per capita > $5000 except Israel have fertility rates below replacement, and those below that line are largely above replacement. Generally, income inversely correlates with fertility.
Anecdotally, it feels like people don’t want to sacrifice to have kids in the middle income levels here in the states. Households over $500k income are above replacement, then below that threshold households are below replacement, so it seems like people who are by all means well off (ie $250k) would rather have more money for lifestyle spending than additional kids.
That all being said, we all do feel poorer, but I think people need to be quite well off to trade money for more kids.
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@k00b I just zapped you 4 sats. Use that to fund another kid. Thx
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timmy can get braces now thank you
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Bro don't get your braces on TEMU
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Then you also need to give him 4 days
At least
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amazon's braces are so overpriced and there's probably no difference anyway
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