Bitcoin briefly cracked new all time highs this year, but recent Polymarket odds suggest we may already be past the 2025 peak. The market now gives BTC about a 61% chance of reaching $110,000 in 2025, but only 29% odds for hitting $150,000 and a mere 14% chance for $200,000.

That’s a notable shift in sentiment, especially given the halving tailwinds, ETF inflows, and renewed institutional interest. A parallel market predicts a correction down to ~$70k before year end, indicating growing caution.

Is this a signal that we've overheated too fast? Or are prediction markets underestimating longer term momentum from Layer 2s, ordinals, and macro tightening relief?

Also interesting: the same markets tie in election odds, showing Trump’s potential return could impact crypto’s trajectory. Are these contracts just noise, or valuable signals?

Are you using Polymarket or Kalshi to hedge BTC exposure or just to speculate? Do you think prediction markets are more accurate than technical analysis or analyst projections?