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The Long-term Price Structure of Bitcoin
171 sats \ 5 comments \ @rothbardllc 29 Nov 2022 bitcoin

The price chart of bitcoin can only be understood in logarithmic terms.

Read that sentence again. Inscribe it indelibly into your prefrontal cortex.
Because it’s the most important thing, financially-speaking, you’ll ever read:
The price chart of bitcoin can only be understood in logarithmic terms.
Every other chart in market history is readily understood in normal, linear form -- where the number lines go from, say, 10 to 20 to 30 to 40, and so on.
With bitcoin, that doesn’t work. We can only understand bitcoin by switching to the logarithmic view, where the number lines go from 10 to 100 to 1000 to 10,000, and on from there.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lkEDQxNK/
This is a first in the history of financial markets. It’s a seemingly simple thing, but the implications are profound.
Bitcoin is different. It’s unfolding on a much bigger and grander scale than any other market in history.
If we look at the logarithmic chart of bitcoin since the beginning in 2010, it does indeed pass the eyeball test on looking much different than other charts. After all, it has gone from 1 cent to the current $16,250 in 12 years.
Most people on a lengthy perusal of this chart will get a sense that there may be an underlying pattern in the way the bitcoin price is developing over time. But it’s hard to pin down.
There IS a long-term price structure here. It’s just a bit difficult to tease out. But once you see it, it’s obvious.
We’ll start with the most apparent feature, the periodic long corrections.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CV7WQbrA/
The first correction took place when bitcoin was just getting rolling on its logarithmic path and was steeper and more exaggerated. But it’s shape and timing are similar to ensuing trends, it just happened at double-speed. This first trend took 3 years, and covered a massive distance, from 1 cent to just under $1,200.
The next chart highlights these trends from the lows to the highs. This is where it gets a little tricky, because the corrections (red lines) are only at the half-way point to the spike top.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zZLzbPdv/
Perhaps the easiest way to understand this is that the red corrections are the top of the uptrend that started about 6 years prior, and the halfway point to the top that’s coming in about 3 years.
It’s worth a bit of time and attention to understand how these 6-year uptrend lines form on the bitcoin price chart. It’s the main characteristic of the price structure.
The propagation line for the 6-year trend is established at the very beginning, as the eigenvector that defines the path to the eventual spike top.
In other words, the initial market action at these massive bottoms tells us how it’s subsequently going to develop. We don’t have to guess.
The first trend happened when bitcoin was new and illiquid, so events happened more quickly and with exaggerated effect. But interestingly, the underlying structure was still there – only at double speed, with massive volatility.
The second trend started at the low in late 2011 and ended at the famous spike top in Dec 2017, the one that stretched up to $20,000.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/OXdIAkqM/
The third trend went from the 2015 double bottom, around $200, up to the May 2021 peak around $65,000.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Db2L39rS/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CkR6zdwr/
The top of this 6-year trend should arrive in late 2024, and should come in around $160,000 per bitcoin.
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3 sats \ 1 reply \ @pillar 29 Nov 2022
Drawing lines again eh?
For anyone reading this, remember that this guy is as clueless as everyone else.
Again, as in your previous posts, I ask: I assume you will be happy to take x100 leverage right now to go long, and that you would also be happy to take millions on future contracts at any price below $160,000 at around late 2024 since you are confident that you will be able to flip those to achieve a profit. Have you already done all of this?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @rothbardllc OP 29 Nov 2022
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/EM-Wave.gif
All energy in our universe propagates the same way -- electromagnetically -- orthogonally along a propagation line -- including markets.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @02405aafd2 4 Jan 2023
Once everyone who wants to short, leverage and earn using bitcoin has been properly slapped by events, all downward action should end.
Turnover, the price insensitive will drive it, and no one accepts a Bid, monotonicity achieved.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Kaffi 29 Nov 2022
only thing I agree with is bitcoin will be up in the next 2 years. News distorts bitcoin alot. like it shot up because of covid but the blow off top was stunted by the china ban (super cereal this time) making your chart stuff kind of invalid.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @01xCc 29 Nov 2022
Биткоин это инструкция. тебе это позволит заработать миллионы долларов. но что делать если однажды цена не сможет опустится просто потому что нет продавцов? тогда мнгоие смогут заработать трилионы долларов на этом ралли! Делай что считаешь нужным. мы просто наблюдаем.
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