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If that is based on onchain TX it should be a lot more. I guess LN is a lot harder to quantify due to things like MPP or streaming sats.
Its also hard to compare with visa or master card as all of their TX are commerce where as Bitcoin also includes TX that aren't like sending to cold storage or coin joins.
Yes, it refers to on-chain transactions. LN is not really quantifiable due to the reasons you mentioned, and also because of private channels.
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