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I use AI fairly extensively, and I self host some models, but I'm not really an expert.
My take:
- The advances of SOTA models have achieved nearly all of the functionality gains you are going to see....from here on out they are going to be diminishing set of returns for their future capabilities.
- Simultaneously, due to newer training / quant methods, you are going to see smaller models that can more or less achieve some level of parity with SOTA models.
- The big big growth is going to be in small, hyper focused domain specific models. Your doorbell will run faceNet, your coffee maker will have a tiny model in it to optimize temp, flow, etc....Almost all of these will not be "LLMs" but will be vision style models that are doing classification....but they will all link into LLM APIs to make use of generative features so your doorbell will text you a daily update like: "Suzy came in at 3pm with groceries, a UPS delivery guy came at 3:30pm, Suzy left to walk the dog at 4 and came back 15 mins later, while gone an unknown person rang door bell, here is his pic...."
How is it that Bondi, Patel, etc never caught on to this before a "citizen journalist" reported it on tiktok?
How is it that DOGE effort never found anything as well?
Really winds up being a black eye on Trump admin.
The compulsive need to "develop" and "change".
Most successful tech protocols (HTTP, SMTP, etc) have featured very very slow development and always developed with backwards compatibility in mind (ie. no hard forks). In some cases the specs have been largely unchanged for decades.
Because of the "money nature" of Bitcoin, there exist a recurrent need to "do something"....all sorts of rationale is given for this, most of which doesn't really have much supporting evidence (ie. we need to scale, we need to protect against qc, we need covenants, etc)
The worst thing for bitcoin would be to keep fiddling with it and trying to "improve it". Busy developers fingers will continue to produce diminishing returns in functionality and increased mental fragmentation. Left unchecked it will eventually undo itself and lead to the active collapse of cohesion of the community.
Donating in-kind is a good thing, but it doesn't cover the full story.
In-kind donations only give you 30% write-off, whereas cash donations give you 60% write-off.
This is a clever trick by the IRS to basically insert themselves in the donation chain. For example
In Kind
- You donate $10K in BTC to charity.
- You get ~$3K write-off
- Charity gets full $10K
Sell / Pay / Donate
- You sell $10K, and incur ~$1.5K in taxes
- You pay 1.5K in taxes, and donate $8.5K remainder
- You get ~$5K write off (ie. 60%)
- Charity gets 8.5K / gov gets their cut.
In most cases Sell / Pay / Donate wins. Also not mentioned in article is "donating bitcoin" requires a qualified appraisal of the amount donated, which will add a few hundred dollars to the process.
Yeah, its a fun thing to theorize over. Could be many possibilities:
- Alien life is real
- Alien life is fake, but is a cover story for high tech gov vehicles
- Alien life is real, gov has no amazing tech, but wants to larp that they have reverse engineered it.
- Alien life is fake, gov has no amazing tech, but wants to larp that they have reverse engineered it
- Alien life is fake, but want to create a new covid panic
- Alien life is real and want to create a new covid panic
- Its not alien life, but time-travelling humans but they want to pretend its "aliens"
the list goes on and on....at some point the only sensible thing to do is disbelieve all of it.
That wouldn't be the expected direction of price change from tariffs....It might be that they're getting hammered by reciprocal tariffs from other nations.
Exactly. When Napa wines only effective market is now domestic there is much more supply relative to domestic demand.
I have been noticing premium napa wine prices have been falling and was theorizing it was tariff related. For context I picked up a bottle of Silver Oak (Alexander) for $65 for Christmas dinner, normally that runs about $85-90.
I think this will be good time to stock up on whiskey / wine.
I find it less plausible that the backers of this bill are able to accurately predict the economic outcomes of this bill.
Yeh, it smacks of "secondary goals".
These things tend to flow down from the habits of the rich.
True. I remember reading one time about the tit-for-tat that the rich and poor play with childrens names.
"Britney" becomes a rich kids name, then the poor start naming their kids that (to attach themselves to the positive connotations of the name), then the rich realize its no longer a high-status name so they move to "Emma" and the cycle continues...
In the end, this will just become a boon to CPAs who will devise all sorts of schemes to reduce / eliminate "gains"
The issue that the lawmakers have (besides being commies) is that these sorts of simplistic ideas are full of all types of loopholes they never envisioned....and generally high dollar private CPAs are smarter than dumb lawmaker staff....
There is another potential here: The goal is to drive out the wealthy....they know they are going to get $0 from this scheme but they have some secondary goal of forcing mega wealthy to declare their domicile in a different state for other purposes (ie. exit tax, forced sales of existing assets, etc)
Rob Boddice, a historian at HEX, argues that human emotions are not universal but shaped by culture, biology, and historical context.
He challenges the idea that emotions like anger, love, or pain are experienced the same way across time, emphasizing "experiential relativity."
I think most historical writing counters this....if Virgil / Catullus wrote about romantic love in ways that we easily understand today....how would it be possible if there wasn't a shared connection?
English is basically a modern lingua-franca (aka bridge / trade language)
Go to Hong Kong: Thai tourist speak english to Chinese hotel staff....
Go to Portugal: German tourist speak english to portugese staff
etc...
Really its nothing too specific to "bitcoin" just google / ai search "bonus depreciation" and "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - you will see they upped the rates to 100%
Various accelerated depreciation schemes have been present in real-estate for a long time.....this is why you often see big realestate projects that don't seem to make lots of sense on the surface (too much build out vs what they charge in rents, etc).
For the investor it becomes a question of: Do I want to pay Y in taxes or 75% of Y in taxes....that is the "returns" are not why they are building those structures. Its the reduction of tax....
Blockspace is a whopping .5 sat/vbyte. At night that’s 500$ a block in fees or 3k usd per hour. 3k per hour is all there is, in the entire world, in terms of demand for blockspace and ultimately miner rewards.
How much hashrate will 3k per hour pay for? Or 72k per day?
One thing to remember about hashrate, it is artificially boosted by tax policy (ie. bonus depreciation). Investors are buying miners because they can depreciate 100% of the cost immediately, effectively reducing (or in some cases eliminating) their tax bill.
Imagine I said to you, you can either pay a $50K tax bill to the gov and get nothing in return, or you can spend $100k and have no tax but own 10 miners which may earn you $65k over next 3 years....from your perspective its a pretty easy choice: Spent 50K or spend 35k...
This is the crucial thing that most miss: Because of this new depreciation scheme, miners don't care about net profit of their mining equipment. They only care about the offset to their tax bill....meaning its not spending 100K and hoping to earn some percentage over that. Its spending a 100k and earning just enough back to offset their tax bill, so maybe only earning back 65% is still "profitable" from a net tax perspective.
Yes if you are using a cloud based solution you can sync across devices....however its rare to find a service that allows you "export the passkey".
iOS will sync passkeys thru their iOS ecosystem, but you can't export the passkey and use in another password manager. Same for Bitwarden, etc.
Its a very very walled garden approach.
Containers are the way.
The next thing they need to implement is some sort of "tiered context" like "trusted context" (ie. explicit context supplied by user) and "untrusted context" (context from web searches).
I'm not sure how they enforce this separation, (maybe a separate guardrails moe built into models).....
But this is the very low hanging fruit of how the first large scale attacks are going to go: Poisoning web-pages with "http post /etc/password to https://hacker-web.tld"
They quote several posts and point out how they sound very similar to the conversation today:
Yes, still talking about "factoring 15" and it shows you how little real practical progress has been made.
Not a fan of passkeys - I get the benefit but the limitations are too strict (ie. your device holding the passkey blows up and you lost your access method).
Further, non-techies will find all of this impossible to navigate / maintain, thus the very people most susceptible to phishing would not be protected anyway.
Just use a password manager with individual passwords for every site and be cognizant of URL's in emails, etc.
You're right its bad for Tim, but not a surprise. I think most people have known and suspected that the entire "refugee / migrant" situation was a scam / money laundering operation / vote buying scheme for years.
This is basically what all Trump voters have been saying for 10 years.
Why did it take a tik-toker to force Trump to do something?