economy

Stacker_Stocks

With the S&P 500 at all-time highs.

This is only the third time since 1996.

Inflation remains high, banks are under silent pressure, and valuations have never been so stretched.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108090)


The market's celebration continues

Since April, the S&P 500 has risen 35% and reached 24 record closing highs.

This is one of the largest five-month highs in the index's history, comparable to the post-2008 rally.

But this time, there's no fear in the air.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108091)



Valuation above anything we've ever seen, even with high interest rates

Price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios surpassed the dot-com bubble, the 1929 peak, and the 2021 peak.

And all this with inflation above target.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108092)



Growth remains steady

US GDP is growing at over 3% annually, a robust pace, with no classic signs of recession.

However, the labor market is beginning to show strong signs of slowing.

This doesn't appear to be the typical default scenario that usually justifies interest rate cuts.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108094)



But banks are silently feeling the pressure.

Unrealized losses at American banks currently total $395 billion.

This is the second-highest figure in history, behind only 2022.

The structure is under strain. The Fed is monitoring this closely.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108095)


Inflation is still a real problem

Core inflation (CPI) was 3.1%, above target, and remains spread across various sectors.

The PPI rose. The PCE also rose.

Meanwhile, the monetary base (M2) returned to full growth.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108096)



The Quiet Slowdown in the Labor Market

The number of Americans who say "there are plenty of jobs" fell to 34.1, the lowest level since 2021.

This indicator has anticipated every recessions in the past.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108097)



Cutting prices at highs is rare and dangerous.

Since 1996, this has only happened twice:

• In 2019, before the pandemic
• In 2024, at the beginning of the AI ​​euphoria

On Wednesday, it will be the third time. It will cut 0.25 percentage points.
But the context now is much more delicate.



Historically, the market likes this.

In 100% of the last 20 times the Fed cut interest rates to 2% from the top, the S&P rose in the following 12 months.

Average return: +13.9%

![](https://m.stacker.news/108099)



But the short term isn't always favorable.

Half the time since 1980, the S&P has fallen in the month following a rate cut.

Some of these declines were sharp and rapid.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108100)



The Fuel Behind the Cut

This time, the interest rate cut isn't due to widespread economic weakness, but rather amid:

• Inflation Still Resilient
• AI Revolution Accelerating Investment

The risk is turning what's already hot into something explosive.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108101)



Real assets have already smelled the impasse.

Gold and Bitcoin anticipated all of this.

Both are coming off strong rallies:
• Bitcoin +450%
• Gold +105%

They are pricing in what lies ahead: lower interest rates with inflation still rife and fiscal chaos.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108102)



We're on the edge between relief and disruption.

If the Fed cuts out of conviction, the rally could continue.

If it's out of necessity, the bubble could burst.

A stalemate in which no one seems able to accurately describe the current situation and what should actually be done.

And this is typically accompanied by widespread volatility!

The Fed will finally start cutting interest rates in the US on Wednesday.

Politics_And_Law

Political assassination, church massacre, train attack, 13-year-old with an arsenal at home.

Now, with the execution of Charlie Kirk, the country seems to have crossed a line beyond repair.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107639)

![](https://m.stacker.news/107640)


Charlie Kirk killed by sniper at university

During an event at Utah Valley University, the conservative activist was shot in the neck by a bullet fired from more than 200 meters away.

The moment was captured on video. Kirk fell from his chair in front of the crowd.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107641)


Founder of Turning Point and symbol of the new right

Kirk was 31 years old, had two children, and was an ally of Donald Trump.

The founder of Turning Point USA, influential among young conservatives, he was launching a tour with 15 events at universities.

He died on the first day.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107642)

![](https://m.stacker.news/107643)


Ukrainian woman stabbed to death

Iryna Zarutska, 23, was murdered on a train in North Carolina.

The attack was captured on camera: the attacker stood up and stabbed her in the neck three times.

He had 14 previous convictions, including armed robbery.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107644)

![](https://m.stacker.news/107645)



Church Massacre Kills 2 Children During Mass

In Minneapolis, a transgender shooter opened fire on worshippers with a rifle, pistol, and shotgun.

She killed two children, ages 8 and 10, and injured 21 others, most of them children.

The FBI is investigating it as a hate crime against Catholics.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107646)



Another shooting hours later in the same city

Minneapolis recorded another armed attack on the same day: 1 dead and 6 injured.
No apparent connection to the church massacre.

Just another episode in a sequence that no longer seems like an exception, but rather a symptom.



13-Year-Old Arrested With Arsenal and Plans

In Washington state, police found 23 guns, ammunition, tactical clothing, and notes glorifying massacres.

Some weapons were 3D-printed, others had no serial number.

Investigators said it was only a matter of time.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107647)



All of this happened in the last two weeks.

And if we go back in time just a little, the situation becomes even more serious.

Because before Charlie Kirk's death, Donald Trump himself had already been the target of a sniper attack during a rally.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107648)



The pattern is clear, and it's getting worse.

The string of attacks in recent days doesn't seem random.

I can't rule out a more significant social uprising in the US.

The risk is truly increasing!
And, let's face it, it's pretty hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Something very serious is happening in the USA

Trump's pressure on the Fed and the BLS is gaining momentum.

Now, the government itself is admitting it: nearly 1 million jobs reported between 2024 and 2025 never existed!

![](https://m.stacker.news/107568)


1. Official data revised: -911,000 jobs

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised payroll data for the period March 2024 to March 2025.

The correction shows that the US created 911,000 fewer jobs than the official figures indicated.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107569)


2. The impact on the monthly average is brutal

With the revision, the average rate of job creation during the period fell from 147,000 to just 70,000 per month.

In other words, less than half of what the government predicted.



3. Almost all sectors were affected

The largest cuts in the review were:

• Leisure and hospitality: -176,000
• Retail, professional services, wholesale, and manufacturing: heavily impacted
• Technology/information sector: worst performance in percentage terms



4. How was this possible?

The BLS uses a sample of 121,000 businesses and a model called birth-death, which attempts to estimate business openings and closures.

The problem is that the model failed to capture the post-pandemic slowdown and overestimated business creation.



5. This isn't an isolated error. It's happened before.

In 2024, the same BLS estimated that the previous year's data was overstated by 818,000 jobs.

Trump said the numbers were being "cooked" and fired the agency's head.

Now, another review confirms he had reason to be suspicious.



6. The revision is preliminary, but the damage is done

The estimate could still change by February, when the final fiscal data is released.

But even if it is softened, the WSJ itself states that the final number will still be "too big to ignore."



7. The market begins to absorb the bombshell

According to Polymarket:

• 79% expect a 25-bp cut at the next Fed meeting
• The chance of a 50-bp cut rose to 16.3%
• Only 3% believe the rate will be maintained

Trump again publicly criticized Powell and said the Fed is dragging its feet.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107570)

![](https://m.stacker.news/107571)



8. The credibility of the Fed and the BLS is in question

This revision comes shortly after months of data showing a strong labor market, used as justification for maintaining high interest rates.

Now, all of that is in doubt.



9. The Fed May Have Overdone Monetary Tightening

With this new baseline, it's difficult to sustain the "resilient economy" thesis.

And if the labor market has already been weak for months, the real risk is that the Fed raised interest rates too much for too long.

US Revises -911,000 Jobs: The Biggest Mistake Since the 2009 Crisis

The Bitcoin whale, which had been selling since August 20th, exchanged ~36,000 BTC (~$4 billion) for 886,000 ETH.

Although the initial movement boosted ETHBTC, it ended up correcting ~11%, and now the 886,000 ETH can only buy 34,373 BTC.

A loss of ~1,600 BTC ($177 million)

![](https://m.stacker.news/106811)

Swapping 36,000 BTC for ETH results in a loss of $177M

In the first 8 months, they invested US$12.5 billion, surpassing the entire year of 2024, and today they hold more than 6% of the total BTC, 21 times more than in 2020.

![](https://m.stacker.news/106809)

Firms amassed $43B in Bitcoin in 2025, marking the largest influx in history

Never in history has there been such a large gap between financial assets and real money.

This is the highest level ever recorded, exceeding the dot-com bubble (2000) and the peak of COVID-19 (2020).

![](https://m.stacker.news/106455)


The meaning of "money in the economy"

We're talking about M2: the entire US monetary base.

In other words, the money in circulation in cash, account deposits, and monetary funds.

It's the most commonly used measure to calculate the economy's liquidity.



The current contrast

Today: Nasdaq ≈ US$32 trillion | M2 ≈ US$22.1 trillion
One year ago: Nasdaq ≈ US$27 trillion | M2 ≈ US$21.7 trillion

In other words: M2 grew only US$400 billion, while the Nasdaq soared US$5 trillion.

The jump came from price, not liquidity.



This movement didn't come from the entire market.

It was basically seven companies: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla.

They already account for half of the index.

Without them, this ratio would fall by half.



The engine of the rally

• Over $1 trillion in borrowed money to buy stocks (record leverage)
• ETFs increasingly concentrating resources on the same giants
• Options inflating movements and creating squeezes

This combination sustains the rally — but also increases the risk of aggressive declines.



Why is it worth paying attention?

M2 has been virtually stable since 2022.

In other words, there is no new money supporting this rise.

It's pure asset repricing, supported by concentration and leverage.



History is unforgiving.

Whenever assets have grown much faster than real money, the correction has been painful:

• 2000: dot-com bubble
• 2008: subprime crisis
• 2020: pandemic followed by monetary tightening

The extremes never lasted long.



The 2025 Difference

In previous cycles, peaks came with abundant liquidity.

Now, they happen with high interest rates and monetary tightening.

The market rose, but the monetary base did not follow.




Conclusion

The Nasdaq at nearly 150% of M2 doesn't mean an immediate crash.

But it does indicate the most vulnerable point ever recorded.

At the limit, it's worth being cautious!

The Nasdaq is now worth 1.5x all the money in the US economy.

Trump's tariff policy runs counter to what many economists have been saying—and, so far, it's been a success.

If the current pace continues, the US could raise $500 billion annually from tariffs alone. This is an unprecedented figure in American history.


A Month That Made History

In July 2025, the country collected US$29.6 billion from import tariffs alone.

This is a 300% increase compared to the same month last year and the highest monthly figure ever recorded.

To put this in perspective, this is equivalent to almost all annual tariff revenue in 2016.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104437)


When the past seems small

During Trump's first "trade war," between 2018 and 2020, there was not a single month with tariff revenues exceeding $10 billion.

The current performance is so superior that it makes that dispute a blip on the charts.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104438)



The month-over-month increase

The growth was rapid and consistent:
•March: US$8 billion
•April: US$15 billion
•May: US$22 billion
•June: US$26 billion
•July: US$30 billion

In just five months, more than US$100 billion has already flowed in—and this even with a 90-day pause on some tariffs.


The $40 billion barrier is in sight

Projections indicate that August could surpass $40 billion in revenue.

This boost comes from new tariffs imposed by Trump:
🇮🇳 India: +25%
🇧🇷 Brazil: +40%
🇯🇵 Japan: +15%

The message: allies or not, everyone is in the crosshairs.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104439)



Market Effect: Gold and Bitcoin Soar

The combination of high tariffs, a growing deficit, and expectations of interest rate cuts creates a perfect scenario for alternative risk and hedging assets.

Gold is up 13% this year, and Bitcoin is up over 56% in the same period.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104440)



The deficit remains the biggest challenge

Even with the increase in revenue, July 2025 ended as follows:

•Revenue: US$338 billion
•Expenditure: US$630 billion (historical record)
•Deficit: US$291 billion

In other words: tariffs covered only ~10% of the monthly deficit.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104441)



Revenue greater than corporate tax

At the current rate, tariffs will generate +1.6% of GDP in annual revenue—more than the entire corporate income tax collected in the US.

The problem isn't revenue; it's curbing spending, which is still on an explosive trajectory.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104442)



China: The Missing Piece 🇨🇳

On August 11th, Trump extended the pause on tariffs on China for 90 days.

If there's no agreement by November 10th, the tariffs will go into effect—and that alone could boost annual revenues above $500 billion.



Explosive growth in one year

Tariffs already generate more than US$300 billion annually, compared to approximately US$80 billion in the same period in 2024.

This represents nearly fourfold growth in just 12 months.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104443)

Trump's tariffs surprise pessimistic economists and could reach $500 billion

This week, he sold everything for US$9.6 billion.
Profit: +17,700,000%

👀 For every US$1 invested, he returned US$176,000.

![](https://m.stacker.news/101132)

But the strangest part?
He spent 14 years without selling ANYTHING.
He went through cycles, crashes, FTX, China banning, ETF rejections...

And he decided to sell everything at once now!

Where does this money go?
What do those who waited 14 years in silence and decided to leave know?

The market is trying to figure it out.
You should too.

He bought 80,000 BTC for US$54,000 in 2011.

But now, the side effects are knocking:

• Gold outperforms the S&P
• Bitcoin hits all-time high again
• Treasuries experience worst decade in 200 years
• Crypto ETF crushes institutional flow
• Fed stalls
• And insiders bail out of Nvidia

![](https://m.stacker.news/100178)

2. Gold > US stocks🏅
Over the past 25 years, the gold ETF (GLD) has appreciated +596%
The S&P 500 with dividends (SPY) has delivered +556%

That's right: in the era of big tech and infinite QE, gold has beaten stocks.

There's something very wrong (or very right) here.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100193)


3. The interest rate cut has become a mirage

A few weeks ago, the market saw a 94% chance of a cut in September.
Now, it's only 60%.

The Fed is stuck: inflation, debt, and geopolitics have blocked the pivot.

And meanwhile, real interest rates continue to crush everything.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100194)


4. The Greatest Treasury Collapse

US 10-Year Bonds Are on Track for the Worst Decade in Modern History

📉 Nominal Returns Near 0%
Neither war, nor pandemic, nor the 1980s have caused anything like this.

This is the collapse of the safest asset on the planet.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100195)


5. Intelligent money migrated to crypto

Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF ($ Ibit) was the fastest in history to reach $ 80 billion

⏱️ Did this in 374 days
📊 Flight (ETF do S&P) took 1,814 days

The market understood what the game is.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100196)


6: And today Bitcoin broke through the peak.

🚨 For the first time in history, BTC hit $119,000.

The $120,000 barrier is now in sight.
It's no longer possible to ignore the asset that has become a safe haven in times of distrust regarding the dollar and the US Treasury.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100197)


7. Meanwhile… Nvidia suffers an internal exodus

Since the beginning of June, $720 million in Nvidia shares have been sold by insiders.

Jensen Huang, CEO alone, sold more than $150 million.

Important counterpoint here: there's a huge chance the sales were just to "pocket" the unrealistic stock appreciation of recent years. 👀

![](https://m.stacker.news/100198)


8: In summary, look at the map of the turnaround:

• Gold outperforming the US stock market
• Bitcoin breaking records
• Crypto ETF attracting capital the fastest in history
• High interest rates for longer
• Treasuries turning to dust
• Insiders bailing out

This cycle is not like previous ones.

The power of money printing has transformed the world in the last 15 years.

In 18 months, its market value tripled.
It's now the largest increase in any company's market value in history!

![](https://m.stacker.news/99660)


1. The valuation was absurd:

📈 June 2023: $1 trillion
📈 July 2024: $2.5 trillion
📈 July 2025: $4 trillion

It became the most valuable company on the American stock market.


2. Now look at this:

💰 Nvidia: US$4 trillion


3. But what does it actually do?

Nvidia manufactures GPUs—graphics processors.

Once used for gaming, they are now the heart of artificial intelligence.

Without Nvidia chips, there would be no ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, or Sora.


4. What changed was the boom in generative AI.

After ChatGPT, all the big tech companies started developing their own AIs.

And they all needed the same thing:

🔌 Computing power
🎯 Nvidia GPUs


5. The company has become a critical supplier to:

🔹 Microsoft
🔹 Google
🔹 Meta
🔹 Amazon
🔹 OpenAI
🔹 ByteDance
🔹 Tesla
🔹 Spotify
…and many others.

Today, it is the infrastructure behind the next digital era.


6. Fundamentals reflect the current situation:

🟢 Net income: US$18.8 billion in the last quarter
🟢 Revenue: US$44.1 billion (+69% in 12 months)
🟢 Weight in the S&P 500: largest in the index

Even with US restrictions on China, which could cost US$8 billion in sales.
The market doesn't care.
Because the thesis is bigger: AI will dominate the world.

And Nvidia has become the shovel and pickaxe of this new gold rush.



7. But there are serious risks along the way:

⚠️ Taiwan: Nvidia's chips are manufactured by TSMC, which is based there. A conflict with China would bring everything to a standstill.

⚠️ Technological disruption: What if another type of processor is more efficient than the GPU?

⚠️ Customer concentration: A few big tech companies account for most of the revenue.

⚠️ Stretched valuation: Any misstep could result in a major fall.

Nvidia and the highest value reached by a company in history!

Trump threatens to deport Elon Musk and reignites crisis within the government

Tesla fell 7% today due to the new political clash and closed down 5.34%

![](https://m.stacker.news/98742)

1. Now the fight is under threat of deportation

The tension between Trump and Musk is not new. Musk, who supported Trump in the 2024 campaign and even led the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), is now criticizing the government's fiscal direction.

The crisis escalated with a post by Trump on Truth Social:

“Elon's companies, like Tesla and SpaceX, receive billions in federal subsidies – without that, he would have to go back to South Africa. No more rockets or electric cars. Maybe DOGE should look into that!”

![](https://m.stacker.news/98743)


2. Trump does not ignore deportation in interview with journalists

Asked if he would deport Musk, Trump replied: “I don’t know… we’ll have to take a look.”

Musk is a South African who has been a naturalized American since 2002, so the threat sounds more like political provocation, but it impresses investors.



3. The trigger: Trump's spending bill

The pivot of the crisis is a billion-dollar bill, approved in the Senate and now in the House.

The proposal is a priority for Trump, who promises tax cuts, but Musk criticizes the $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling and suffers from the end of incentives for electric vehicles, such as the $7,500 tax credit, essential for Tesla.



4. Musk: “Spending without a cap? Insane!”

Musk blasted the bill as “insane spending” and accused Congress of leading the US into “debt slavery.” He also said:

“What’s the point of having a cap if it keeps getting higher and higher?”

He also promised to fund campaigns against lawmakers who support the bill.

![](https://m.stacker.news/98744)


5. Bill passed by a narrow margin in the Senate

The Senate approved the proposal by a narrow margin, with a decisive vote from Vice President J.D. Vance.

It now goes to the House and could be sanctioned by July 4.

Among the cuts are environmental subsidies, which could directly impact the electric vehicle sector.


6. Musk’s response: a new party

Musk has threatened to create the “America Party,” a movement to represent the political “center” and break away from the two-party system.

He has also promised to increase investment in the campaigns of candidates aligned with his vision.



7. Tesla feels the impact on the stock market

Tesla shares closed down 5.34% at $300.71, after falling as much as 7% during the session.

The continued decline throughout the year demonstrates investor fears over the possible withdrawal of subsidies for EVs and the political instability involving Musk.

![](https://m.stacker.news/98745)



8. Operational problems worsen the crisis

In addition to the political clash, Tesla faces increasing competition from companies such as BYD and is expected to report a drop in quarterly deliveries tomorrow.

Analysts expect a decline in sales in 2024, the first in years, while Musk promises recovery throughout the year.

New political clash sends Tesla shares down more than 5%

Zohran Mamdani is expected to be the next mayor of New York.
He won the Democratic primary — and since Republicans have no power in the city, this practically guarantees victory in November.
But the surprise was not only on the right.
Until a few days ago, the favorite was Andrew Cuomo, the former governor of the state, known for his more moderate style.
Mamdani turned the tide at the last minute with the support of unions, grassroots activists and the most radical wing of the party.

📍 Who is he?

• Born in Kampala, Uganda, son of Marxist intellectual Mahmood Mamdani
• Grew up between Africa, India and New York
• Became a socialist organizer and entered politics with the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America)

📌 What he advocates:
• Defund the police
• Tax the rich
• Create a “socialist New York”
• Reduce police power in poor and racialized communities
• Link public policies to identity issues: queer liberation, racial justice, etc.

His tweets explain his thinking well:

“We need to defund the police, get them out of matters they have no business in […] and invest the savings in those most impacted by state violence.”

“Together, we can tax the rich, heal the sick, house the poor, defund the police & build a socialist New York.”

🚨 Trump reacted furiously today:

“Zohran Mamdani, a 100% lunatic communist, horrible, annoying voice, not smart… with the support of AOC and other idiots. Our country is SCREWED.”

And he also mocked:

“Put Jasmine Crockett as president, AOC as vice president, Mamdani as mayor. It would be the definitive end of the USA.”

Why is the right really worried?

• Because Mamdani left the niche and reached real power — he will lead the largest city in the country
• Because his history, speech and tweets reinforce the narrative of the “far left taking over”
• Because he has become a symbol of a new cycle: socialism, identity and militancy reaching the mainstream
• And because even moderates in his own party have been run over — which raises red alerts even among Democrats

Zohran Mamdani should be the next mayor of New York.

Over the past three days, the US has bombed nuclear facilities in Iran. Russia has responded by saying there are countries willing to supply Tehran with nuclear weapons. And the Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes.

If the market were truly pricing in a long-term conflict, the impact would be MUCH greater. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz alone would justify oil above $120, analysts say.

But the most interesting detail is off many people's radar: the uranium ETF (URA) has soared more than 80% since its April bottom.

The market may be ignoring the risk of a long war, but it is not ignoring a possible nuclear escalation.

The market is saying a lot of things

This spending has already surpassed health and defense by more than US$ 300 billion.
It is currently the government's second largest expense, behind only Social Security.

Interest consumes almost 18% of all federal revenue, close to the record of the 1980s, when Fed Funds reached 19%.

The biggest fiscal crisis in the US today is not about the primary deficit. It is about the cost of the debt itself.

![](https://m.stacker.news/97290)

The US is already paying $1.2T/year in debt interest — $3.3B every day.

Israeli-linked hackers have destroyed 95% of the assets of Nobitex, Iran’s largest crypto exchange. Meanwhile, the Iranian attack “that would be remembered for centuries” has failed completely.

![](https://m.stacker.news/97011)


 Nobitex collapses after hacker attack

Israeli group Predatory Sparrow has wiped out $1.7 billion from Iranian brokerage Nobitex.

A true destruction of digital wallets that plummeted from US$1.8 billion to just US$100 million.


Nobitex: key piece to circumvent sanctions

The brokerage was used by the Tehran regime to:

• Evade international sanctions,
• Laundering government money,
• Financing networks linked to the IRGC and the nuclear program.

![](https://m.stacker.news/97013)

![](https://m.stacker.news/97014)


Sensitive documents in Israeli hands

In addition to destroying the funds, hackers gained access to:

• Nobitex source code,
• List of clients linked to the regime,
• Compromising information for the Iranian government.



 Iran threatened a historic attack, but…

Tehran promised there would be an “action that the world would remember for centuries.” The result?

• 25 missiles launched against Israel,
• Zero casualties recorded.

An absolute fiasco for the regime.


Israel's immediate response

Shortly after the failed Iranian attack, Israel carried out:

• Dozens of attacks near Tehran,
• Destruction of ammunition depots,
• Attacks against strategic nuclear centers.


War is now physical, digital and financial

The action against Nobitex shows that the war between Israel and Iran has gone beyond missiles and is now in the digital and financial fields.

Who will be the next target?

Predatory Sparrow attacks Iranian brokerage as Iran fails “historic strike”

 Iranian state media promises “a surprise the world will remember for centuries” later today.

🇺🇸 US troops on high alert at bases in the Middle East

🗣️ Trump is expected to make an important speech

![](https://m.stacker.news/96945)

Meanwhile, odds on Supreme Leader Khamenei leaving power in 2025 have soared to 63% on Polymarket (+39% in 1 month)

![](https://m.stacker.news/96947)

⛽️ Oil price soars more than 5%

In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, the US president said the target was “easy to hit” but that the US “won’t kill him, at least not yet.” Trump also said Washington’s patience was “running out.”

![](https://m.stacker.news/96924)

Donald Trump threatens Irans supreme leader and says he knows where he is hiding

The market has already realized the risk

The likelihood of U.S. military action against Iran before July has jumped from 10% to 67%, according to Polymarket.

Investors are pricing in a major war, not just a passing whiff.

![](https://m.stacker.news/96867)

The Market Already Prices in War: Bets on Conflict with Iran Soar to 67%

• CNN reports that an Iranian official has said the country will step up attacks on Israel and target the regional bases of any country that tries to defend it.

• The Israeli military says its air force bombed a nuclear facility in Iran's Isfahan region.

• The Financial Times editorial board says the conflict between Israel and Iran is “the war that should have been avoided” and that “the world is rightly worried.”

• Israel claims it destroyed bases belonging to the Iranian air force.

• Large fires and columns of smoke have been reported near Mehrabad Airport in Tehran. (Video below)

• Large-scale explosions were heard near Tehran airport.

• One dead and 70 injured in total after ballistic missile attack launched by Iran.

• Reports of sirens and attack in Baghdad.

• Israel says people can now leave shelters as Iranian attack ends.

![](https://m.stacker.news/96498)

🇮🇱🇮🇷 This is the latest news from the war

Israel Reportedly Kills Iran’s Armed Forces Chief, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri

Security has been beefed up and barriers have been erected around the Israeli embassy in Washington, DC, following the Israeli bombing of Iran.

![](https://m.stacker.news/96383)

![](https://m.stacker.news/96380)


Oil soars over 11% NOW!

Why doesn't the movement stop?

The attack was VERY serious!

These are the latest reports 

![](https://m.stacker.news/96381)

![](https://m.stacker.news/96382)


1️⃣ Israeli officials say there is a “very high chance” that the entire top brass of Iran’s military and several senior Iranian nuclear scientists were killed in tonight’s Israeli strikes, according to CNN.


2️⃣ The AP (Associated Press) reports that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard headquarters is on fire after the Israeli attack.


3️⃣ Iranian state television reports that the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards is presumed dead following tonight's Israeli strike.


4️⃣ Iran's state television says Deputy Commander-in-Chief of all armed forces General Gholam Ali Rashid has been killed, along with nuclear scientist Fereydoon Abbasi.


5️⃣ Reuters reported that security sources said Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is alive.


6️⃣NOW: Iran's state TV said new explosions were recorded at the Natanz nuclear facility following an Israeli strike.


7️⃣ Iran plans to "give a tough and decisive response" to the Israeli strike, an Iranian security source told Reuters.


8️⃣ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the country is experiencing a decisive moment in its history.