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The US market is on a knife's edge: record debt, extreme leverage, and an explosion in options!

These three signs have preceded virtually every major collapse in recent decades.

![](https://m.stacker.news/113035)


Total U.S. debt reached $98.8 trillion—324% of GDP.

The federal government alone accounts for $37.5 trillion, or 123% of GDP.
Businesses and households also carry debts close to 140% of GDP combined.

There has never been such widespread exposure.

![](https://m.stacker.news/113036)



Margin debt rose by US$67 billion in September alone.

Over the past five months, the increase is 39%.

Investors are expanding positions with borrowed money at the same pace as in 2021, just before the peak.

![](https://m.stacker.news/113037)




This type of movement usually anticipates large declines in the S&P.

This was the case during the 2000 bubble, the 2008 crisis, the 2018 selloff, and the 2022 bear market.

The sequence is always similar: leverage increases too much, the market corrects, and forced sales accelerate the decline.




The options market has (again) broken all records.

Total volume recently hit 109 million contracts per day, the highest in history.

This reflects a market operating on an all-or-nothing basis.




Retail options volume has doubled in the last year.

Individuals are trading short, cheap, and volatile contracts at unprecedented levels.

Increased risk is concentrated at the most sensitive end of the chain.

Buying the deep is no longer enough.





This is what the market will look like in October 2025:

• Public and private debt at all-time highs
• Equity leverage breaking records
• Options trading on a historic scale
• Retailers concentrating on short-term assets
• Gold soaring and the dollar collapsing

US market on a knife's edge: record debt, high leverage, and options boom!

The most controversial policy on Wall Street.

Warren Buffett focuses everything on traditional stocks.
Nancy Pelosi bets heavily on tech, AI, and options.

Two gigantic portfolios that demonstrate opposing market views and may make you rethink your investments.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112919)

![](https://m.stacker.news/112920)


2. Buffett plays the same old game.

Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio totals $258 billion.
And 22% is in a single stock: Apple.

Apple, American Express, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola represent more than half of the portfolio.

It's the classic: few names, lots of weight, and a long-term focus.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112921)



3. Pelosi plays the modern game—and Congress's.

The congresswoman's (or rather, her husband's) portfolio is filled with tech:
• NVIDIA = 19%
• Broadcom, Alphabet, Visa, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft…

Furthermore, she frequently trades options—especially tech calls.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112922)




4. Pelosi's fame is not without reason.
Her portfolio gained notoriety with far above-average performance:
• Estimated +700% accumulated since 2014
• In 2024, it returned over +90% for the year

Such visibility even generated apps and ETFs trying to replicate her movements.

But it also raised significant suspicions of insider trading.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112923)



5. Buffett vs. Pelosi: Two Ways of Looking at the Market.

Buffett invests based on fundamentals, predictability, and value.
Pelosi seeks growth, innovation, and hype cycles, capitalizing on issues that frequently pass through Congress.

It's Berkshire vs. Nasdaq.
It's conviction versus agility.
It's stability versus leverage.

And both are making money.



5. What does this say about the market?
That there's not just one way to invest.
But also that each portfolio reveals how its owner views risk, cycles, and opportunities.

And understanding these contrasts can give you much more clarity about where to allocate your money.

The greatest investor in history.

Debt exploding.
Tech sector dominating everything.
Gold inaccessible.
Investors operating with leverage to the limit.

Is this rally grounded or out of touch with reality?

Understand the dynamics of the current mess!



1. US public debt has gone parabolic.

Total debt has already reached US$37.9 trillion!

It rose an incredible US$400 billion in September alone, and has already increased US$1.7 trillion since July, when the debt ceiling was lifted.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112800)



2. And the trajectory is one of continued explosion

At the current pace, the US will reach $40 trillion in debt by 2026.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is already at 124%, the highest level since the peak of the pandemic.

This is the backdrop behind everything that is happening.



3. Meanwhile, the market focuses on a single horse: tech.

Tech stocks now account for 38% of the US market value.

The highest level in history—even higher than the 33% seen in 2000, the height of the dot-com bubble euphoria.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112801)



4. But this is an isolated phenomenon in the US.

In the rest of the world, the tech sector represents only 12% of the global market excluding the US.

In other words, no other country is investing so heavily in a single sector.

This concentration makes the market more vulnerable to specific shocks. Although it seems to make sense given the scale of the current revolution.




5. Buying gold with an American salary has never been so expensive.

Today, an average worker in the US needs 116 hours of work to buy a single ounce of gold.
This is the highest level since 1929.

It's not just gold that's risen; purchasing power is plummeting.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112802)



6. The price of gold won't stop—and wages haven't kept up.

The metal is already worth almost $4,300, while the average hourly wage in the US is only $36.50.

Gold is rising because the dollar is melting. Official inflation doesn't show it, but real wages are getting weaker.



7. And market leverage hits all-time high

Margin debt in the US reached $1.1 trillion, the highest level ever.

In September alone, investors borrowed an additional $67 billion to buy assets.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112803)



8. The risk isn't just in value—but in speed and complacency.

Today, margin debt is equivalent to 2% of the S&P 500, more than during the 2000 bubble.

And there's pressure on the SEC to release ETFs with leverage of up to 5x per day.

This could turn any correction into a collapse.



9. When the tide turns, the system can't handle it

With so much leverage, it only takes one slip to turn into an avalanche:
• Margin calls
• Forced liquidations
• Domino effect on prices

This is what happened during the crypto crash on October 10th.



10. The math doesn't add up

Record public debt.
Extreme concentration in tech.
Gold out of reach.
Investors leveraging to the limit.

This rally is supported by excess.

The market is euphoric — but the warning signs have never been clearer.

The Russians want to build the "Putin-Trump Tunnel" under the sea, connecting Alaska and Siberia.
With Elon Musk on board.


The market is in disarray. And no one can explain exactly what's going on.


And Trump, when asked, replied: "It's interesting."

![](https://m.stacker.news/112739)

 

1. The Proposal: A Tunnel Between Siberia and Alaska

The plan was presented by Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund.
It would be a rail and freight tunnel connecting the two countries under the Bering Strait.

Suggested name: Putin-Trump Tunnel.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112740)



2. Elon Musk was hired to lead the project with the Boring Company

Musk's company specializes in digging urban tunnels. He has already pitched the idea of ​​connecting cities with high-speed underground trains.

Dmitriev estimates the tunnel would cost $65 billion, but with Musk's technology, it would drop to $8 billion—and be completed in eight years.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112741)




3. Trump said, "That's interesting. I'll think about it." Zelensky replied, "I'm not happy with that idea."

The exchange was public, during a White House press conference.
Trump heard the tunnel proposal from the Kremlin and expressed curiosity.
Zelensky cut him off immediately.

All this one day after a two-hour call with Putin.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112742)




4. The Kremlin wants more: it proposed a consortium with the US and China in the Arctic

With the ice retreating, the Arctic has become a target of competition for trade routes, oil, and gas.

Dmitriev said the tunnel would be the starting point for joint projects between Russia, China, and the US in the region.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112743)




5. The Bering Strait is the closest point between Russia and the United States.

It lies between Alaska and Siberia—82 km wide at its narrowest point.
In between are the Diomede Islands: one American, the other Russian, separated by only 4 km.

This is where the tunnel would pass.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112744)




6. The terrain makes everything nearly impossible

The Bering Strait has ice, earthquakes, nothing around it, and freezing temperatures.

The Boring Company has only dug in places like Las Vegas.

It has never come close to such an extreme environment.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112745)

![](https://m.stacker.news/112746)



7. Musk has a history with the Kremlin and China

- Tesla buys aluminum from Rusal, which is linked to Russian oligarchs.
- In 2022, he spoke with Putin.
- And according to the WSJ, Putin asked him to limit Starlink to please Xi Jinping.

Musk plays on several fronts, and not always on the side he seems to be on.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112747)





The great underwater tunnel connecting the US and Russia proposed by the Kremlin

Credit defaults, regional banks collapsing, liquidity drying up, gold hitting record highs, and the Fed poised to intervene again.

All of this together paints the same pattern that always precedes major shocks: the system begins to dry up before things change.

Understand what's at stake!



1️⃣ The first domino has fallen: regional banks plummet again

Shares of Zions (-13%), Western Alliance (-12%), and First Horizon (-3%) plummeted after fears of further losses from nonperforming loans and other factors—explained below.

It all started with the bankruptcies of First Brands Group and Tricolor Holdings, which brought to light long-standing problems in the American credit system.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112570)



2️⃣ The First Brands case raised a major alarm.

The auto parts company vanished with $2 billion, leaving losses at several banks and asset management companies.

The episode revealed the extent of the fragility of US corporate credit—a highly interconnected system in which no one knows exactly who bears the ultimate risk.



3️⃣ Jamie Dimon issued the strongest warning yet

The JPMorgan CEO, who lived through 2008 from the eye of the storm, compared the cases of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands to the first signs of the subprime crisis.

"When you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be alert," he said.

JPMorgan itself lost $170 million with the Tricolor collapse — and Dimon made it clear: the problem is returning in the shadows of credit.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112571)



4️⃣ Behind this lies modern "shadow banking."

Much of this risk is hidden in the private credit market, which already totals $2 trillion.

These are loans outside the traditional banking system—transferred in a chain, with little transparency and high leverage.

This was precisely the type of mechanism that preceded the 2008 crisis, only now with different names and instruments.




5️⃣ While credit shows signs of weakness, the backdrop worsens

The Fed's bank reserves have fallen below $3 trillion, a level the central bank itself considers the "red line" between abundant and scarce liquidity.

When reserves dwindle, banks become more cautious, restrict lending to each other, and the repo market begins to strain—the same symptom that preceded 2019.




6️⃣ The liquidity cushion has also dried up — and this explains the rise in SOFR.

The Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), created during the pandemic to absorb excess bank cash, reached US$2.5 trillion in 2022 and is now virtually zero.

Money Market Funds, the RRP's main creditors, had three possible options:
– leave the money parked in the RRP;
– buy Treasuries;
– or lend to banks in the repo market, which defines SOFR.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112572)




7️⃣ The first sign of real stress has already appeared

With the RRP drying up and funds already sitting in Treasuries, there was a lack of liquidity to lend to banks—and the cost of overnight cash soared.

The market went into defensive mode: the system still works, but the gears began to creak.

The use of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF)—which provides emergency liquidity to banks—soared to $6.75 billion, the highest level since the pandemic.

And this time, it's not an end-of-quarter effect (for the balance sheet): it's a lack of cash.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112573)




8️⃣ Powell already knows what's ahead

This week, the Fed chairman admitted that he could halt the balance sheet tightening "in the coming months"—ending the liquidity drain earlier than expected.

Goldman Sachs is talking about February, Barclays is talking about January.

But if the pressure continues, the Fed will be forced to inject money again—via repo, QE, or a new emergency program.




9️⃣ And it's in this context that gold soars.

With the system showing signs of liquidity shortages and the Fed close to ending its tightening, the flow of money has gone where it always goes in times of uncertainty: real assets.

Gold broke $4,300, is now approaching $4,400, becoming the first asset in history to be worth over $30 trillion, and today is the most visible reflection of the global flight of confidence in paper money.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112574)



Credit, liquidity, and confidence are all eroding simultaneously—and the Fed is cornered.
Gold, Treasuries, and crypto are reacting before the stock markets, showing that the search for protection has begun.

Markets are full of signals that no one wants to see.

As currencies melt, debts explode, and trust in institutions erodes, gold has taken on the role of a global safe haven.

It's up 58% in 12 months and has just broken through $4,200, renewing its all-time high.

This rally isn't just technical: it's a clear sign of a breakdown in trust in the traditional system!

![](https://m.stacker.news/112412)

![](https://m.stacker.news/112413)



2. It simply stopped reacting to inflation and interest rates.

Gold doesn't need to pay a yield. It just needs to continue existing, without counterparty risk.

It simply reflects the search for credibility.

The world no longer seeks returns.
It seeks to maintain value and reduce external dependence.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112414)



3. There are no sellers in the market.

– Central banks continue buying
– ETFs raising capital at the fastest pace in history
– Institutional investors consistently increasing their positions

The few occasional declines are always followed by new highs.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112415)



4. There have been faster rallies, but not more solid ones.

In the 1970s, gold exploded 400%.

Now, the rally is supported by a structural change:

geopolitical fragmentation, a flight from Treasuries, and a collapse of confidence in the fiat system.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112416)



5. The monetary system begins to be redesigned.

The post-war order that made the dollar untouchable is being questioned.

Gold has once again become plan A for central banks and those who no longer trust anything.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112417)



6. Central banks anticipated the move.

Since Russia's dollar reserves were frozen, emerging markets began stockpiling heavily.

The playbook has changed.
Gold is not controlled by the US; it is "outside the system"—and that's what these countries need now.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112418)



7. China Leads the Substitution Race

Gold reserves rose from 1% to 6.5%.
Meanwhile, exposure to US Treasuries fell sharply.

Strategic Repositioning for Sovereignty.
The map of global reserves is being redrawn.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112419)

![](https://m.stacker.news/112420)



8. Developed economies also don't sell.

Their stocks have remained virtually unchanged for decades.
Not even during previous price peaks has there been a reduction.

When those who print money refuse to sell gold, it's because they know what's really going on.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112421)



9. This is no longer a price action.

It's a silent referendum on paper wealth.

Gold doesn't rise out of fear, but because faith in the system is fading.

And when trust breaks, the question changes:
it's no longer "how much is gold worth?"
it's "what still has value?"

![](https://m.stacker.news/112422)

Let's understand what this changes for the 2025 global cycle?

The biggest rally of the year in the US and Australia was triggered by a movement called a military plan—and a geopolitical objective.

The new game is now played with strategic metals and trillions on the table!

![](https://m.stacker.news/112109)

![](https://m.stacker.news/112110)


JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion announcement

The bank announced today its "Security and Resilience Initiative," with investments of $1.5 trillion over 10 years.

The $10 billion equity investment will be from companies linked to:
• Defense and aerospace
• Supply chains and manufacturing
• Energy and critical minerals
• Artificial intelligence and semiconductors

All under the "America First" umbrella.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112111)



The market exploded

Rare earth stocks soared in the US and Australia.

🇺🇸 USA
• CRMLW: +72%
• USAR: +32%
• MP Materials: +24%
• UAMY: +36%
• Energy Fuels: +17%

🇦🇺 Australia
• Northern Minerals: +40%
• Arafura: +14%
• Larvotto: +17%
• Viridis: +10%

These are companies that extract the most sought-after metals of the moment.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112112)

![](https://m.stacker.news/112113)



But what are rare earths?

Despite the name, they're not that rare.
There are 17 chemical elements used in chips, batteries, turbines, and defense systems.

Without them, there would be no cell phones, electric cars, guided missiles, or artificial intelligence.
Today, China accounts for 70% of global production.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112114)



Jamie Dimon unleashed the lyrics: the US has become vulnerable

"It has become painfully clear that the US has become overly dependent on unreliable sources."

In other words: the movement is more than economic. It's strategic.

A bank entering the dispute for productive sovereignty.



The Minerals Cold War Has Already Begun

In recent weeks, China has restricted exports of rare earths.
Trump responded with 100% tariffs on Chinese products.

Meanwhile, the US government was buying stakes in companies like MP Materials, Trilogy Metals, and Intel.

Now, JPMorgan Chase is stepping in as the White House's private equity arm.



Trump pressed, Wall Street caved

He had been accusing banks of "ideological debanking" and demanding internal investment.

With this plan, JPMorgan aligns itself with Trump's rhetoric and also secures a position in infrastructure projects, public contracts, and incentives.

Apple, Nvidia, and SoftBank have also already taken action.



The risk: this is all just political theater

The FT and NYT warned: this move could be a corporate stunt to please Trump and garner funding.

But the effect was significant:
• Volumes exploded
• Mining companies soared
• The issue became the center of the economic narrative



This war is new—and the US isn't ready.

It's not just about interest rates, inflation, or fiscal pressure.
It's a new power struggle—where whoever controls the elements of technology has a strategic advantage.

And markets are racing to price this in.

JPMorgan enters the rare earth wars!

US$19.5 billion liquidated.
1.6 million traders forced to close their positions.
Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted.
All this... because of a misreading of an old news story?


The full story

![](https://m.stacker.news/112083)


1. Trump's announcement sent the market into a frenzy.

On Friday, he declared 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.

The market interpreted this as the beginning of a new trade war.
And the result was immediate: panic, evaporating liquidity, and record selloffs.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112084)


2. But the reason for the tariff was already public—and no one cared.

China had announced rare earth export controls on October 9th, more than 24 hours before Trump's tweet.
It was treated as irrelevant news until it became the trigger for a collapse.


3. Hours later, China clarified: there is no blockade.

Exports remain permitted for those who meet the technical requirements.
There was no ban. There was no disruption.
It was just a misperception.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112085)


4. The market got it all wrong. And it's already correcting itself.

• Ethereum surpassed $4,000
• Bitcoin is back at $113,000
• BNB surges over 11%
• Solana, XRP, and Lido continue their momentum

![](https://m.stacker.news/112099)


5. The collapse was real. But the cause was false.

• Largest crypto selloff in history
• $2.5 trillion evaporated from the S&P
• All because of a misinterpreted news story

![](https://m.stacker.news/112101)


6. What now? "Crash canceled."

The market is already talking about a new trade agreement.
At Polymarket, the chance of a tariff being imposed plummeted to 13%—a 41% drop.

![](https://m.stacker.news/112105)

The biggest crypto crash in history was caused by a misunderstanding.

Friday ended with a heavy start.
But Sunday completely changed the mood: Trump's post, crypto prices soaring early, futures soaring.

Monday starts with a completely different backdrop!


The turnaround began in the crypto market, even in the morning.

The market was already showing signs of recovery—even without a clear trigger.
Bitcoin bounced back from its lows, Ethereum accelerated, and altcoins like Solana and BNB rallied.

Friday's selloff began to be absorbed well before Trump spoke.

![](https://m.stacker.news/111954)


The big relief for the rest of the market came after lunch.

Trump posted that the US "wants to help China, not hurt it"—a clear gesture to defuse tensions.

The tone was friendly. And that was all the assets needed to respond.

![](https://m.stacker.news/111955)



The reaction was intense:

US futures opened significantly higher:

• Nasdaq +1.6%
• S&P 500 +1.2%
• Small Caps +1.1%
• Dow Jones +0.8%

Almost half of Friday's decline has already been reversed—even before Monday began.

![](https://m.stacker.news/111956)



But the risk hasn't gone away.

Trump reaffirmed that tariffs against China remain scheduled for November 1st.

The market chose to focus on the tone—and ignore the harsher content. On Polymarket, only a 15% chance was priced in.

![](https://m.stacker.news/111957)


Tomorrow there's an important detail:
It's Columbus Day in the US.

• Stock markets open as usual
• But the interest rate market remains closed

In other words, there's less liquidity in Treasuries, more room for noise and off-axis movements.

This improvement will prevent a correction that could be quite ugly.


Sunday Recap:
• Crypto had been reacting since early morning
• Trump calmed the mood in the afternoon
• Futures rose sharply
• A significant portion of the decline was reversed
• Monday begins with a very different atmosphere than Friday

You need to know this before the week starts!

With the S&P 500 at all-time highs.

This is only the third time since 1996.

Inflation remains high, banks are under silent pressure, and valuations have never been so stretched.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108090)


The market's celebration continues

Since April, the S&P 500 has risen 35% and reached 24 record closing highs.

This is one of the largest five-month highs in the index's history, comparable to the post-2008 rally.

But this time, there's no fear in the air.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108091)



Valuation above anything we've ever seen, even with high interest rates

Price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios surpassed the dot-com bubble, the 1929 peak, and the 2021 peak.

And all this with inflation above target.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108092)



Growth remains steady

US GDP is growing at over 3% annually, a robust pace, with no classic signs of recession.

However, the labor market is beginning to show strong signs of slowing.

This doesn't appear to be the typical default scenario that usually justifies interest rate cuts.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108094)



But banks are silently feeling the pressure.

Unrealized losses at American banks currently total $395 billion.

This is the second-highest figure in history, behind only 2022.

The structure is under strain. The Fed is monitoring this closely.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108095)


Inflation is still a real problem

Core inflation (CPI) was 3.1%, above target, and remains spread across various sectors.

The PPI rose. The PCE also rose.

Meanwhile, the monetary base (M2) returned to full growth.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108096)



The Quiet Slowdown in the Labor Market

The number of Americans who say "there are plenty of jobs" fell to 34.1, the lowest level since 2021.

This indicator has anticipated every recessions in the past.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108097)



Cutting prices at highs is rare and dangerous.

Since 1996, this has only happened twice:

• In 2019, before the pandemic
• In 2024, at the beginning of the AI ​​euphoria

On Wednesday, it will be the third time. It will cut 0.25 percentage points.
But the context now is much more delicate.



Historically, the market likes this.

In 100% of the last 20 times the Fed cut interest rates to 2% from the top, the S&P rose in the following 12 months.

Average return: +13.9%

![](https://m.stacker.news/108099)



But the short term isn't always favorable.

Half the time since 1980, the S&P has fallen in the month following a rate cut.

Some of these declines were sharp and rapid.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108100)



The Fuel Behind the Cut

This time, the interest rate cut isn't due to widespread economic weakness, but rather amid:

• Inflation Still Resilient
• AI Revolution Accelerating Investment

The risk is turning what's already hot into something explosive.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108101)



Real assets have already smelled the impasse.

Gold and Bitcoin anticipated all of this.

Both are coming off strong rallies:
• Bitcoin +450%
• Gold +105%

They are pricing in what lies ahead: lower interest rates with inflation still rife and fiscal chaos.

![](https://m.stacker.news/108102)



We're on the edge between relief and disruption.

If the Fed cuts out of conviction, the rally could continue.

If it's out of necessity, the bubble could burst.

A stalemate in which no one seems able to accurately describe the current situation and what should actually be done.

And this is typically accompanied by widespread volatility!

The Fed will finally start cutting interest rates in the US on Wednesday.

Politics_And_Law

Political assassination, church massacre, train attack, 13-year-old with an arsenal at home.

Now, with the execution of Charlie Kirk, the country seems to have crossed a line beyond repair.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107639)

![](https://m.stacker.news/107640)


Charlie Kirk killed by sniper at university

During an event at Utah Valley University, the conservative activist was shot in the neck by a bullet fired from more than 200 meters away.

The moment was captured on video. Kirk fell from his chair in front of the crowd.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107641)


Founder of Turning Point and symbol of the new right

Kirk was 31 years old, had two children, and was an ally of Donald Trump.

The founder of Turning Point USA, influential among young conservatives, he was launching a tour with 15 events at universities.

He died on the first day.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107642)

![](https://m.stacker.news/107643)


Ukrainian woman stabbed to death

Iryna Zarutska, 23, was murdered on a train in North Carolina.

The attack was captured on camera: the attacker stood up and stabbed her in the neck three times.

He had 14 previous convictions, including armed robbery.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107644)

![](https://m.stacker.news/107645)



Church Massacre Kills 2 Children During Mass

In Minneapolis, a transgender shooter opened fire on worshippers with a rifle, pistol, and shotgun.

She killed two children, ages 8 and 10, and injured 21 others, most of them children.

The FBI is investigating it as a hate crime against Catholics.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107646)



Another shooting hours later in the same city

Minneapolis recorded another armed attack on the same day: 1 dead and 6 injured.
No apparent connection to the church massacre.

Just another episode in a sequence that no longer seems like an exception, but rather a symptom.



13-Year-Old Arrested With Arsenal and Plans

In Washington state, police found 23 guns, ammunition, tactical clothing, and notes glorifying massacres.

Some weapons were 3D-printed, others had no serial number.

Investigators said it was only a matter of time.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107647)



All of this happened in the last two weeks.

And if we go back in time just a little, the situation becomes even more serious.

Because before Charlie Kirk's death, Donald Trump himself had already been the target of a sniper attack during a rally.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107648)



The pattern is clear, and it's getting worse.

The string of attacks in recent days doesn't seem random.

I can't rule out a more significant social uprising in the US.

The risk is truly increasing!
And, let's face it, it's pretty hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Something very serious is happening in the USA

Trump's pressure on the Fed and the BLS is gaining momentum.

Now, the government itself is admitting it: nearly 1 million jobs reported between 2024 and 2025 never existed!

![](https://m.stacker.news/107568)


1. Official data revised: -911,000 jobs

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised payroll data for the period March 2024 to March 2025.

The correction shows that the US created 911,000 fewer jobs than the official figures indicated.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107569)


2. The impact on the monthly average is brutal

With the revision, the average rate of job creation during the period fell from 147,000 to just 70,000 per month.

In other words, less than half of what the government predicted.



3. Almost all sectors were affected

The largest cuts in the review were:

• Leisure and hospitality: -176,000
• Retail, professional services, wholesale, and manufacturing: heavily impacted
• Technology/information sector: worst performance in percentage terms



4. How was this possible?

The BLS uses a sample of 121,000 businesses and a model called birth-death, which attempts to estimate business openings and closures.

The problem is that the model failed to capture the post-pandemic slowdown and overestimated business creation.



5. This isn't an isolated error. It's happened before.

In 2024, the same BLS estimated that the previous year's data was overstated by 818,000 jobs.

Trump said the numbers were being "cooked" and fired the agency's head.

Now, another review confirms he had reason to be suspicious.



6. The revision is preliminary, but the damage is done

The estimate could still change by February, when the final fiscal data is released.

But even if it is softened, the WSJ itself states that the final number will still be "too big to ignore."



7. The market begins to absorb the bombshell

According to Polymarket:

• 79% expect a 25-bp cut at the next Fed meeting
• The chance of a 50-bp cut rose to 16.3%
• Only 3% believe the rate will be maintained

Trump again publicly criticized Powell and said the Fed is dragging its feet.

![](https://m.stacker.news/107570)

![](https://m.stacker.news/107571)



8. The credibility of the Fed and the BLS is in question

This revision comes shortly after months of data showing a strong labor market, used as justification for maintaining high interest rates.

Now, all of that is in doubt.



9. The Fed May Have Overdone Monetary Tightening

With this new baseline, it's difficult to sustain the "resilient economy" thesis.

And if the labor market has already been weak for months, the real risk is that the Fed raised interest rates too much for too long.

US Revises -911,000 Jobs: The Biggest Mistake Since the 2009 Crisis

The Bitcoin whale, which had been selling since August 20th, exchanged ~36,000 BTC (~$4 billion) for 886,000 ETH.

Although the initial movement boosted ETHBTC, it ended up correcting ~11%, and now the 886,000 ETH can only buy 34,373 BTC.

A loss of ~1,600 BTC ($177 million)

![](https://m.stacker.news/106811)

Swapping 36,000 BTC for ETH results in a loss of $177M

In the first 8 months, they invested US$12.5 billion, surpassing the entire year of 2024, and today they hold more than 6% of the total BTC, 21 times more than in 2020.

![](https://m.stacker.news/106809)

Firms amassed $43B in Bitcoin in 2025, marking the largest influx in history

Never in history has there been such a large gap between financial assets and real money.

This is the highest level ever recorded, exceeding the dot-com bubble (2000) and the peak of COVID-19 (2020).

![](https://m.stacker.news/106455)


The meaning of "money in the economy"

We're talking about M2: the entire US monetary base.

In other words, the money in circulation in cash, account deposits, and monetary funds.

It's the most commonly used measure to calculate the economy's liquidity.



The current contrast

Today: Nasdaq ≈ US$32 trillion | M2 ≈ US$22.1 trillion
One year ago: Nasdaq ≈ US$27 trillion | M2 ≈ US$21.7 trillion

In other words: M2 grew only US$400 billion, while the Nasdaq soared US$5 trillion.

The jump came from price, not liquidity.



This movement didn't come from the entire market.

It was basically seven companies: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla.

They already account for half of the index.

Without them, this ratio would fall by half.



The engine of the rally

• Over $1 trillion in borrowed money to buy stocks (record leverage)
• ETFs increasingly concentrating resources on the same giants
• Options inflating movements and creating squeezes

This combination sustains the rally — but also increases the risk of aggressive declines.



Why is it worth paying attention?

M2 has been virtually stable since 2022.

In other words, there is no new money supporting this rise.

It's pure asset repricing, supported by concentration and leverage.



History is unforgiving.

Whenever assets have grown much faster than real money, the correction has been painful:

• 2000: dot-com bubble
• 2008: subprime crisis
• 2020: pandemic followed by monetary tightening

The extremes never lasted long.



The 2025 Difference

In previous cycles, peaks came with abundant liquidity.

Now, they happen with high interest rates and monetary tightening.

The market rose, but the monetary base did not follow.




Conclusion

The Nasdaq at nearly 150% of M2 doesn't mean an immediate crash.

But it does indicate the most vulnerable point ever recorded.

At the limit, it's worth being cautious!

The Nasdaq is now worth 1.5x all the money in the US economy.

Trump's tariff policy runs counter to what many economists have been saying—and, so far, it's been a success.

If the current pace continues, the US could raise $500 billion annually from tariffs alone. This is an unprecedented figure in American history.


A Month That Made History

In July 2025, the country collected US$29.6 billion from import tariffs alone.

This is a 300% increase compared to the same month last year and the highest monthly figure ever recorded.

To put this in perspective, this is equivalent to almost all annual tariff revenue in 2016.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104437)


When the past seems small

During Trump's first "trade war," between 2018 and 2020, there was not a single month with tariff revenues exceeding $10 billion.

The current performance is so superior that it makes that dispute a blip on the charts.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104438)



The month-over-month increase

The growth was rapid and consistent:
•March: US$8 billion
•April: US$15 billion
•May: US$22 billion
•June: US$26 billion
•July: US$30 billion

In just five months, more than US$100 billion has already flowed in—and this even with a 90-day pause on some tariffs.


The $40 billion barrier is in sight

Projections indicate that August could surpass $40 billion in revenue.

This boost comes from new tariffs imposed by Trump:
🇮🇳 India: +25%
🇧🇷 Brazil: +40%
🇯🇵 Japan: +15%

The message: allies or not, everyone is in the crosshairs.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104439)



Market Effect: Gold and Bitcoin Soar

The combination of high tariffs, a growing deficit, and expectations of interest rate cuts creates a perfect scenario for alternative risk and hedging assets.

Gold is up 13% this year, and Bitcoin is up over 56% in the same period.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104440)



The deficit remains the biggest challenge

Even with the increase in revenue, July 2025 ended as follows:

•Revenue: US$338 billion
•Expenditure: US$630 billion (historical record)
•Deficit: US$291 billion

In other words: tariffs covered only ~10% of the monthly deficit.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104441)



Revenue greater than corporate tax

At the current rate, tariffs will generate +1.6% of GDP in annual revenue—more than the entire corporate income tax collected in the US.

The problem isn't revenue; it's curbing spending, which is still on an explosive trajectory.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104442)



China: The Missing Piece 🇨🇳

On August 11th, Trump extended the pause on tariffs on China for 90 days.

If there's no agreement by November 10th, the tariffs will go into effect—and that alone could boost annual revenues above $500 billion.



Explosive growth in one year

Tariffs already generate more than US$300 billion annually, compared to approximately US$80 billion in the same period in 2024.

This represents nearly fourfold growth in just 12 months.

![](https://m.stacker.news/104443)

Trump's tariffs surprise pessimistic economists and could reach $500 billion

This week, he sold everything for US$9.6 billion.
Profit: +17,700,000%

👀 For every US$1 invested, he returned US$176,000.

![](https://m.stacker.news/101132)

But the strangest part?
He spent 14 years without selling ANYTHING.
He went through cycles, crashes, FTX, China banning, ETF rejections...

And he decided to sell everything at once now!

Where does this money go?
What do those who waited 14 years in silence and decided to leave know?

The market is trying to figure it out.
You should too.

He bought 80,000 BTC for US$54,000 in 2011.

But now, the side effects are knocking:

• Gold outperforms the S&P
• Bitcoin hits all-time high again
• Treasuries experience worst decade in 200 years
• Crypto ETF crushes institutional flow
• Fed stalls
• And insiders bail out of Nvidia

![](https://m.stacker.news/100178)

2. Gold > US stocks🏅
Over the past 25 years, the gold ETF (GLD) has appreciated +596%
The S&P 500 with dividends (SPY) has delivered +556%

That's right: in the era of big tech and infinite QE, gold has beaten stocks.

There's something very wrong (or very right) here.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100193)


3. The interest rate cut has become a mirage

A few weeks ago, the market saw a 94% chance of a cut in September.
Now, it's only 60%.

The Fed is stuck: inflation, debt, and geopolitics have blocked the pivot.

And meanwhile, real interest rates continue to crush everything.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100194)


4. The Greatest Treasury Collapse

US 10-Year Bonds Are on Track for the Worst Decade in Modern History

📉 Nominal Returns Near 0%
Neither war, nor pandemic, nor the 1980s have caused anything like this.

This is the collapse of the safest asset on the planet.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100195)


5. Intelligent money migrated to crypto

Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF ($ Ibit) was the fastest in history to reach $ 80 billion

⏱️ Did this in 374 days
📊 Flight (ETF do S&P) took 1,814 days

The market understood what the game is.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100196)


6: And today Bitcoin broke through the peak.

🚨 For the first time in history, BTC hit $119,000.

The $120,000 barrier is now in sight.
It's no longer possible to ignore the asset that has become a safe haven in times of distrust regarding the dollar and the US Treasury.

![](https://m.stacker.news/100197)


7. Meanwhile… Nvidia suffers an internal exodus

Since the beginning of June, $720 million in Nvidia shares have been sold by insiders.

Jensen Huang, CEO alone, sold more than $150 million.

Important counterpoint here: there's a huge chance the sales were just to "pocket" the unrealistic stock appreciation of recent years. 👀

![](https://m.stacker.news/100198)


8: In summary, look at the map of the turnaround:

• Gold outperforming the US stock market
• Bitcoin breaking records
• Crypto ETF attracting capital the fastest in history
• High interest rates for longer
• Treasuries turning to dust
• Insiders bailing out

This cycle is not like previous ones.

The power of money printing has transformed the world in the last 15 years.

In 18 months, its market value tripled.
It's now the largest increase in any company's market value in history!

![](https://m.stacker.news/99660)


1. The valuation was absurd:

📈 June 2023: $1 trillion
📈 July 2024: $2.5 trillion
📈 July 2025: $4 trillion

It became the most valuable company on the American stock market.


2. Now look at this:

💰 Nvidia: US$4 trillion


3. But what does it actually do?

Nvidia manufactures GPUs—graphics processors.

Once used for gaming, they are now the heart of artificial intelligence.

Without Nvidia chips, there would be no ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, or Sora.


4. What changed was the boom in generative AI.

After ChatGPT, all the big tech companies started developing their own AIs.

And they all needed the same thing:

🔌 Computing power
🎯 Nvidia GPUs


5. The company has become a critical supplier to:

🔹 Microsoft
🔹 Google
🔹 Meta
🔹 Amazon
🔹 OpenAI
🔹 ByteDance
🔹 Tesla
🔹 Spotify
…and many others.

Today, it is the infrastructure behind the next digital era.


6. Fundamentals reflect the current situation:

🟢 Net income: US$18.8 billion in the last quarter
🟢 Revenue: US$44.1 billion (+69% in 12 months)
🟢 Weight in the S&P 500: largest in the index

Even with US restrictions on China, which could cost US$8 billion in sales.
The market doesn't care.
Because the thesis is bigger: AI will dominate the world.

And Nvidia has become the shovel and pickaxe of this new gold rush.



7. But there are serious risks along the way:

⚠️ Taiwan: Nvidia's chips are manufactured by TSMC, which is based there. A conflict with China would bring everything to a standstill.

⚠️ Technological disruption: What if another type of processor is more efficient than the GPU?

⚠️ Customer concentration: A few big tech companies account for most of the revenue.

⚠️ Stretched valuation: Any misstep could result in a major fall.

Nvidia and the highest value reached by a company in history!

Trump threatens to deport Elon Musk and reignites crisis within the government

Tesla fell 7% today due to the new political clash and closed down 5.34%

![](https://m.stacker.news/98742)

1. Now the fight is under threat of deportation

The tension between Trump and Musk is not new. Musk, who supported Trump in the 2024 campaign and even led the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), is now criticizing the government's fiscal direction.

The crisis escalated with a post by Trump on Truth Social:

“Elon's companies, like Tesla and SpaceX, receive billions in federal subsidies – without that, he would have to go back to South Africa. No more rockets or electric cars. Maybe DOGE should look into that!”

![](https://m.stacker.news/98743)


2. Trump does not ignore deportation in interview with journalists

Asked if he would deport Musk, Trump replied: “I don’t know… we’ll have to take a look.”

Musk is a South African who has been a naturalized American since 2002, so the threat sounds more like political provocation, but it impresses investors.



3. The trigger: Trump's spending bill

The pivot of the crisis is a billion-dollar bill, approved in the Senate and now in the House.

The proposal is a priority for Trump, who promises tax cuts, but Musk criticizes the $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling and suffers from the end of incentives for electric vehicles, such as the $7,500 tax credit, essential for Tesla.



4. Musk: “Spending without a cap? Insane!”

Musk blasted the bill as “insane spending” and accused Congress of leading the US into “debt slavery.” He also said:

“What’s the point of having a cap if it keeps getting higher and higher?”

He also promised to fund campaigns against lawmakers who support the bill.

![](https://m.stacker.news/98744)


5. Bill passed by a narrow margin in the Senate

The Senate approved the proposal by a narrow margin, with a decisive vote from Vice President J.D. Vance.

It now goes to the House and could be sanctioned by July 4.

Among the cuts are environmental subsidies, which could directly impact the electric vehicle sector.


6. Musk’s response: a new party

Musk has threatened to create the “America Party,” a movement to represent the political “center” and break away from the two-party system.

He has also promised to increase investment in the campaigns of candidates aligned with his vision.



7. Tesla feels the impact on the stock market

Tesla shares closed down 5.34% at $300.71, after falling as much as 7% during the session.

The continued decline throughout the year demonstrates investor fears over the possible withdrawal of subsidies for EVs and the political instability involving Musk.

![](https://m.stacker.news/98745)



8. Operational problems worsen the crisis

In addition to the political clash, Tesla faces increasing competition from companies such as BYD and is expected to report a drop in quarterly deliveries tomorrow.

Analysts expect a decline in sales in 2024, the first in years, while Musk promises recovery throughout the year.