@davidw210
2,065,438 sats stacked
stacking since: #50879longest cowboy streak: 210npub1xfp0e...p0dsxae7an
10 sats \ 0 replies \ @davidw OP 9h \ parent \ on: Is our culture setup to handle scarcity? culture
Glad to hear it. Generally I post what is on my mind. It allows me to think things through more. Do a bit of digging to find a few insights on my own and then I ask the stackers for their thoughts. Nothing ground-breaking and nothing that can’t be bettered by you all.
About time I put some real PoW into a post though, like several days or weeks. The last ones were the SN metrics posts. Life can be distracting sometimes.
Yes, feels like this is really just a blip. For thousands of years prior to the last 100, it seems people mostly understood the value of scarce resources. Yet many would rather $100 to a gold bar today.
Wasn't aware of that, thanks. I definitely don't think we're setup for scarcity ahead, which is how I uncovered that chart when writing about the topic here #528956
An interesting observation back in 1995. Not only is water a precious human resource for life, but it is also increasingly required for cooling for compute power. A worrying trend and one to watch.
Appropriate timing. And so it starts, Elon adopting memes as payment methods.
Imagine being supremely intelligent, working on cutting-edge tech and planning out the future at Tesla… as a Bitcoiner 🤦♂️
Some great research but some strange conclusions. I wish the same effort had gone into explaining why bip300 is superior, besides fees and it’s opt-in nature.
In other words, every L2 will be “run by the miners”. ARK, BitVM, etc – they will be “run by miners”, and all of their special security guarantees will cease. The cryptography they employ will be useless. Bip300 is the only security model that is unchanged if a miner-coalition runs the L2.
Binary flippant conclusions like this damage some of the discussion and progress. Wish more people today were open-minded to being wrong or to alternative futures or viewpoints. Sidechains for sure have a place in the mix, especially as we want to incentivise more people to mine for security. But the thinking that LN is a “dead carcass” already because it is not paying miners is pretty laughable.
LN is the only L2 with any sort of traction today, in spite of all its flaws & issues. The first LN transaction was in 2018, so we’re still in 2015 (in Bitcoin terms) as far as Lightning is concerned. Just because it doesn’t process 6.45 trillion transactions a year doesn’t mean in the future when necessity arises it cannot. Humans are compelled into action when the pain of not building something is greatest.
I predict the world will have 13 L2 payment-sidechains, distributed geographically: East NA, West NA, Central America (+Caribbean), South America, West &North Europe, East Europe + Central Asia, Middle East, China, India, Japan, Oceania, Africa, Rest of World / Internet Native.
Then the idea that the world will organise itself around using 13 geographic sidechains is also an interesting take. Who would organise that? Isn’t the whole point of bitcoin to make geography irrelevant?
So yeah, some great research but some very premature conclusions, for me.
I would argue that we are all to an extent all of the above. But it’s very nuanced and so tricky to categorise.
To get better insights you may need a lengthier survey to group respondents into these categories. Questions may be easier to answer that way, without the context. But I know SN doesn’t yet facilitate 30-question surveys 😄
E.g: am I willing to delay a purchase:
- for myself for 4 years
- for my family for 4 years
- for my business for 4 years
- for my neighbourhood for years
- none of the above
E.g: am I willing to spend half a day a week to educate/help
- improve my own knowledge
- improve the knowledge of my family
- improve the knowledge of colleagues/employees
- improve the knowledge in my local community
- none of the above
Excellent article. Love Lyn’s writing style. Always dense with logic & explanations. Here’s the TLDR:
📈 Lady Leverage NOT Luck
Within the current financial system, those who do not use leverage generally lose. Those who leverage too much or too unskillfully and “go over” also lose. But those who leverage moderately and skillfully have been the winners. They enjoy a multi-trillion-dollar annual arbitrage by shorting abundant fiat currency for long durations at low interest rates and using it to buy scarcer business equity or properties. If you don’t play the game as an investor, you usually lose because leverage drives up the valuations for your potential investments.
🌬️ ”Investing” will now have headwinds
So, the effectiveness of this global financial Blackjack strategy is likely going to diminish, although entities that already locked their debt in for long durations are potentially in a position to ride the momentum for quite a while longer. The types of investments that worked well during the past four decades are less likely to work quite as well over the next four decades …And in that shifting environment, it’s important to remember that most investments are bad.
🧐 PoW Required
So in that environment, from the perspective of a passive outside investor looking to deploy capital, it’s important to either seek out the businesses that have durable competitive advantages (network effects, powerful brands, intangible property, economies of scale, oligopoly participation, and so forth), or to be very sensitive to valuations when buying mediocre companies.
🏀 New Ball Game
The prior four decades are unlikely to be a good dataset for back-testing and forming strategies that will work for next four decades, because the conditions will likely be quite different.
🎖️ Scarce Money Wins
Additionally, hard monies become a serious alternative once again in this context, and are worth serious consideration for a portfolio slice, because the hurdle rate for stocks to outperform them is high when there are not a lot of tailwinds at the backs of stocks.
Said it elsewhere in #523167 also…
Of course many will say ‘good luck’ but this is a powerful precedent that will impact millions. So many more downsides than benefits of living in 🇬🇧 these days.
If you feel the same, may be wise to consider your options.
Of course many will say ‘good luck’ but this is a powerful precedent that will impact millions.
So many more downsides than benefits of living in 🇬🇧 these days.
The 2001 version went nowhere.
The 2023 version is being validated.
the history of propellant-less drives is filled with seemingly positive results that are eventually dashed upon the rocks of scientific reality
Wake me up when it’s ready for prime-time. I imagine it will show its face on the military scene if and when it is.
The CBDC product is a symptom of the black hole financial system that exists today. No one wants it and yet it’s growing in influence, in order to continue surviving. Destroying everything in its path and creating massive distortions in order to ensure that existing wealth does not escape its grasp, with conditions of spend.
Bitcoin is its own system. To acquire bitcoin in a CBDC world will require providing PoW to either the network (mining) or to existing participants. It is expanding and emitting light, like a white hole as described in #360669.
Currently we are somewhat privileged that a bridge or portal exists, connecting both systems. I don’t believe it will always be so, for everyone everywhere.
So yes, liquidity may be reduced for several years, but would it be the end of the world, if you could buy 50% less freedom vs absolutely none at all?