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It used to be common in the UK to hire women to breastfeed, instead of the mother doing it, at least for the affluent.
I don't think unions will skyrocket.
More likely is just a wave of bankruptcies for those firms that can't afford the labor they'd need. Then, all those unemployed people cut back on their spending and cause more bankruptcies.
Fed printing basically backfills the demand loss and prevents a full correction.
Yes. I expect it to become the default for electric heating and eventually displace gas heating.
The business model might not require self-custody. Perhaps manufacturers will sell products at a discount to cost while receiving mining output. Or, maybe they'll just come preset with some custodial LN situation for receiving sats.
it's hard for me to imagine that actually happening.
Why is that? It's hard for me to imagine a bitcoin future that doesn't have extensive heatpunkery.
The waste-heat/ideological/security dividends take otherwise an perfect break-even arb opportunity and drive it negative.
This changes what it means for mining to be profitable. It'll be a profitable way for people to produce heat, unless the ideological element is a lot stronger than I anticipate.
it would cost the US less in the longrun with people actually saving for retirement than relying 100 percent on Social Security, Medicare
Only if they cut those benefits, since they aren't currently means tested. Medicaid and other means-tested programs might see significant savings.
The other thing is that this will be an enormous subsidy for corporate America and will create a lot of lobbying pressure from companies wanting to get in on it.
True, but if my grandma smoked a bunch and died early of lung cancer, that doesn't really tell me much about my cancer risk if I don't smoke.
Is there a particular direction that the overconfident ought to be wrong in?
If so, that would be something to trade on. If not, it's not a problem, right?
Maybe all the overconfident are offering is incentive for insiders to participate.
why should anyone without insider knowledge participate?
Irrational confidence?
It seems to me that the only kind of market which could get any sort of volume is if you have insiders who disagree.
"Insider" isn't really a Boolean category. There are degrees of insiderness and you don't know who else is in the market or how aligned their knowledge is.
Even more interesting then. The only people I know moving abroad, or thinking about doing so, are affluent liberals, but that also describes most of the people I know.