TomK

econ

The German real estate market is facing ongoing challenges, both in the short and long term. Factors such as rising interest rates, economic fragility, and consumer adversity contribute to the current crisis. Additionally, a looming demographic downturn further exacerbates the situation, suggesting a prolonged period of decline in real estate prices across Central Europe.

The latest data from the Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (VDP) reveals a persistent downward trajectory in real estate prices. The VDP's real estate price index dropped to 174.7 points in the first quarter, marking a 5.3 percent decrease compared to the previous year and a 0.3 percent decline from the preceding quarter. Since its peak in the second quarter of 2022, prices have plummeted by 10.3 percent, according to the association's findings.

Residential property prices experienced a 4.3 percent decline in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, commercial property prices saw an even steeper decline, with a 9.6 percent drop year-on-year.

This persistent downturn not only impacts property owners but also exerts pressure on banks and lenders, as declining asset values affect their balance sheets. Looking ahead, analysts predict continued challenges for the German real estate market.



German Real Estate Market Continues Downward Trend: Implications and Forecasts

Good news for the Americans: the Biden administration may be using the same rhetoric on energy policy as the completely out-of-control Europeans! But if we put action before words, we have to realize that the USA has massively upgraded its conventional energy sources and continues to produce them. This gives them a geostrategic advantage in this difficult transformation phase, in which the world is falling apart into two large economic blocs. 

If we look to Europe at this point, we have to realize that here in Brussels, among the capitals of the eurozone, they have completely lost their way and are backing the wrong horse. In view of its energy poverty, Europe should be investing massively in nuclear technology and capacity. But there is no sign of this. 

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USA achieves energy self-sufficiency

De-dollarization: China picks up the pace

The US decision to confiscate Russian assets appears to be accelerating the move away from the dollar-based monetary system by major antagonists such as China. Data shows that the China is dumping US government bonds like never before! And the sad attempt by US Secretary of State Blinken to talk China out of cooperating with Russia must also be interpreted as a farce against the backdrop of the ostentatious move away from the dollar. The bifurcation of the world into two large trading blocs is gathering pace and the pressure on the dollar is growing.

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World reserve currency: dollar erosion progresses slowly

Of course, use whatever You like. If You take parts of the text mentioning me would be nice.
Greets

The Japanese economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024, outpacing economists' expectations of a 0.4% decline, according to recent government data. On an annualized basis, the contraction reached 2%, marking the third consecutive quarter of weak economic performance. The economy had previously declined in the third quarter and stagnated in the fourth quarter of the previous year.

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Japan's Economy Faces Continued Challenges as GDP Shrinks in Q1 2024

Over the past few years we have all been able to observe the rapid growth of the BRICs countries as a new financial-, currency and economic bloc. The biggest problem facing these countries, however, is to implement a transaction system that eliminates the considerable mistrust among member states. There is a clear desire to move away from the dollar, not least since the Americans armed the dollar via the Swift system and positioned it against its geopolitical opponents.

 However, the figures show that moving away from the dollar and US dollar-based collaterals such as short-dated US government bonds is a gradual and difficult process, as the global financial system largely functions on US dollar-based assets. Who wants to have a large amount of programmed Chinese Yuan on their balance sheet? A partial return to a gold standard is on the cards, but would be an evolutionary step backwards given the problems of concentration and manipulation of the gold market and asset expropriation. It has already failed several times and would do so again. And so we can observe the erosion process of the dollar as the world reserve currency in all serenity, there seem to be no serious interruptions on the way to the bipolar global economy.

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The world of debt

those were the so-called maastricht rules. they have been systematically undermined and circumvented by the socialists for some time now

The debt ranking of the world's countries is truly impressive. The national debt is accelerating, and this does not even include the excessive payment obligations that politicians have entered into over the course of time in their social and pension systems. This is a multiple of the debt that awaits future generations and is by no means financed. The question is, which ponds and economic waste dumps will absorb the forthcoming issue of new government debt? One thing seems certain: the central bankers have a lot of work ahead of them to inflate away the mountains of debt and deprive the private sector of its purchasing power. 

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European Companies Using Far More Debt Than American Peers

Here in Europe, of course, there is also a different financing culture, which is based on the foundation of regional banks and lending, as seen in Germany. but years of zero interest rate policy have really made credit seem damn cheap in contrast to equity financing.

Here we see the consequence of the ECB's years-long zero interest rate policy: private companies in the Eurozone are operating with much more debt than their competitors in the USA. This makes them much more vulnerable!

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Household debt in the USA reaches record level

Congratulations, we've made it! Private household debt in the United States has reached a record high. Despite, or perhaps despiteCongratulations, we made it! Household debt in the United States has reached a record high. Despite, or perhaps because of, the rapid rise in interest rates, people are plunging deeper and deeper into debt to get through the month. We can see this very clearly in the rising credit card debt. 

This is good news for all those who have switched their currency to hard assets these days and can now watch in peace and quiet as the fiat credit circus enters the next round and opens the gates again for new liquidity. The election-related proposal by both governments to give homebuilders a gift of $10,000 paid out of $400 a month to finance a mortgage alone shows where the journey is headed.coupled with the exploding national debt of Western economies, this is a toxic cocktail that we can no longer banish from the system out of pure economic growth. 

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China finds Keynesian 'solution' to the real estate disaster

Eurozone Economy Shows Moderate Growth in Q1 Despite Challenges

No. Clearly down. Gov holds about 50% of the GDP, running deficits between 2.5 and 4.5%

The Eurozone economy experienced moderate growth in the first quarter of the year, according to Eurostat's latest report. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter, in line with expectations and confirming the initial estimate released on April 30.

Despite robust government spending, the real economy in the Eurozone is facing challenges, evident in the struggles of industries and the construction sector. This indicates a recessionary trend in the actual economic performance of the private sector which (only!!) provides goods and services we need as consumers and is able to allocate scarce ressources to invest where it is demanded. 


On an annual basis, first-quarter GDP growth stood at 0.4 percent, consistent with earlier projections. Economists had anticipated this confirmation.

However, economic performance varied across Eurozone countries. Cyprus saw the strongest growth with a 1.2 percent increase, followed by Ireland at 1.1 percent. Conversely, Estonia experienced the sharpest decline at -0.4 percent. Germany and France both reported a 0.2 percent growth, while Italy saw a 0.3 percent increase.


bitcoin

Lyn Alden  On Scaling

siggy47

Hey, sorry for the harsh debate. I guess we're fighting on the same team in the end.
OK?

How do you solve the problem of a lack of demand in the Keynesian financial system, which has arisen due to massive manipulation of interest rates? You create new demand, with new manipulation of interest rates and new credit, executed by state actors. The crisis in the Chinese real estate market, the largest single market in the global economy, has taken on unspeakable proportions. The ongoing intervention of the communists to stimulate economic growth has resulted in 3.6 billion square meters of vacant housing, ghost towns and a huge overcapacity in the construction sector.

 The Chinese are also unable to escape the failed economic thinking of the Keynesians and are now trying old-fashioned recipes. Regional state institutions are now supposed to lend developers a helping hand and take over empty housing to inject new liquidity into the system and stabilize prices. This is all the more important as the collapse in real estate prices is putting regional banks under massive pressure and has caused the credit mechanism to falter. China is turning into a typical stupid fiat economy that knows nothing other than intervention spirals and manipulation of the credit market, which is destroying the economic foundation that would be necessary to authenticate political totalitarianism.

https://shorturl.at/bjvwz
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