I do not stand to gain anything on Chinas rise - much more to lose in fact. However denying the reality of all the evidence I have already given when you requested it would be pure stupidity. It scares me what is happening and scares me more how many westerners like you are in such dogged and irrational denial of the facts. I am facing facts- you are in denial.

Anyway I have given more than enough time to this dialogue and wish you well but do not wish to waste any more time with someone incapable of fact based reasoned debate. Good luck and good bye.

You fail to make any credible reasoned argument. I am not arguing from a patriotic point of view but from a neutral sense of simply recognising what is happening. Denying reality as you appear to be doing is not in any sense patriotic. It is just kind of sad really.

I am in New Zealand and say what I like.

China has won the trade war-

Evidence-

USA cannot build much at all anymore -its corporates off-shored manufacturing over the last 3-4 decades. Even Musks Teslas are largely Made in China! Just some are 'assembled' in USA.

BYD builds EV batteries at half the cost Tesla can. BYD sells more EVs and Tesla cannot compete- that's why Musk is supporting Trump to protect Tesla from Chinese imports via tariffs. Crony Capitalism 101.

Plus USAs $37 Trillion debt and the fact that it cannot sell USTs as more and more buyers move away from USTs.

USA faces imminent insolvency.

Plus the fact that Trump has already backpeddled substantially upon his trade sanctions buffonery re China- USA is fucked without Chinese supply chains...just wait and see who wins the tariffs standoff. Just study how China already enables trade payments for Iran, Russia and others and how mBridge looks like it will finish of whats left of the petrodollar that USA is insolvent without.

Plus the fact that Trump cannot end the Ukraine war as he promised he would 'within 24 hours' Trump is shown to be a blustering buffon loser.

Russia has sided with China and USA is losing the petrodollar it is addicted to.

China is standing up to his threats and I wager any sum you like that USA will lose the tariffs standoff.

Again you fail to put forward a convincing rebuttal or refutation- now you just parrot what I have said while also failing completely to credibly refute what I have said.

Your 'Lets talk about Tainanmen Square' in simplified Chinese does not actually make any logical argument refuting what I have said about Chinas domination of global trade and supply chains...and the fact that all nations must now trade with China or suffer considerable economic disadvantage.

I could equally refer to the USAs many moral failings, slavery, torture via 'extraordinary renditions' 'lets talk about Guantomino' - interventions, sabotage, drone attacks and war upon the governments of other nations etc, but it would be equally irrelevant and fail to address the issues raised.

You continue to make assertions without any credible fact based or reasoned support for those assertions. It is rather tragic. You leap from asserting that Bitcoin Standard is inevitable, to asserting China is about to collapse. Such absurd baseless assertions only identify you as someone who cannot deal with reality. I do not like the prospect of China becoming increasingly dominant but I do acknowledge the facts and evidence that show this is happening. USA cannot last very long without the Chinese supply chains it is addicted to. Trump cannot end the war in Ukraine- Russia now sells its oil and gas to China and does not need the USA. Saudi Aramco has signed up to Chinas mBridge trade payments protocol and is already selling oil denominated in Yuan. The petrodollar is dying, dying, dead. Some Americans are naturally in denial as its not a great prospect to see that the global wealth and resource hegemony you enjoyed and squandered since WW2, looks like its over. Bitcoin may serve to preserve some of your wealth but it is very unlikely to emerge as the dominant means of exchange globally when China is diametrically opposed to Bitcoin as a MoE and China has already won the trade war. All nations now need to trade with China or suffer significant economic disadvantage- this reality is what you cannot yet accept- no hurry, take your time.

'No debate is neccesary' Sounds like a very authoritarian and irrational assertion.

That is not a convincing reasoned support for your initial assertion. It is more of a statement of faith or conviction.

It does not explain or even provide causative factors or logic as to why centralised fiat would decline or why Bitcoin would overcome fiats current domination of MoE monetary systems.

It is more like you are hoping something will happen but cannot argue convincingly why it could or would happen.

That is a claim you can make, and a hope you may have invested in, but your assertion is not backed by any supporting reasoned argument. Can you provide such a reasoned argument in support of your assertion?

Related content from Joseph Stiglitz explaining the delusion of US Exceptionalism and the Economic Rise of China.

I agree you have addressed some of the issues and I may have missed some and more responded to the name calling as tends to happen when name calling starts and reasoned dialogue suffers as a result.

It is probably more a question of emphasis that is the issue for me.

I prefer to emphasize the risk involved in the 'bitcoin as digital gold' narrative- the risk that people do not see where the real power and importance of Bitcoin is- as an alternative to the nation states monopoly over money and our MoE.

I believe that is a real risk- as I acknowledged at the start- sure you can say Bitcoin is digital gold and that is not untrue- but what I want to emphasize is that the digital gold narrative plays into a perception of Bitcoin that enables capture by bankers and governments by reducing the awareness and emphasis on P2P payments.

P2P payments is where we are going to have to fight to gain the right to use Bitcoin.

It is already quasi banned in most 'liberal' western democracies - How many p2p LN payments do I make that are legally compliant? Almost NONE -certainly not when I zap or by a coffee or kebab at a LN accepting merchant (which I do often as I can!) - because the law is such a fucking ass and requires unreasonable and extraordinary recording and reporting obligations. Most people however are not wanting to expose themselves to such risk. They do not see the right to use Bitcoin as a MoE as such an important issue. They blindly accept the state banker monopoly over MoE. I do not take law breaking lightly either- it is only where the law is obviously and extremely unjust that I believe it is sometimes justified.

How do we remove such unreasonable and undue obligations that have been imposed on all Bitcoiners wishing to use Bitcoin as a MoE?

Not by ignoring the problem.

Lightning now is ready and capable of widespread adoption but would Youtube be party to mass scale unlawful use, which such a tipping scheme would be- unless they somehow create the tax recording and reporting and payments methodology capable of compliance. I do not see how they could do that under the current BTC tax requirements laws and cannot see why governments who have put those laws in place would change them.

Why would the governments that have arbitrarily decreed Bitcoin as a speculative commodity then reverse this convenient description and thus allow and enable its mass scale adoption as a competitor to their fiat money?

Yes Bitcoin is better money, from the point of view of the individual user, but not from the point of view of the bankers and governments who gain huge power and wealth via fiat.

MBridge does not propose to make the Yuan a SoV vehicle- what mBridge does is makes trade payments between member nations faster, cheaper and capable of denomination in their respective currencies.

I recently made a payment for goods manufactured in China (because they can produce this product at 1/3 the cost a NZ factory can) and that payment goes via a New York bank which charges a fee on top of the fee I pay my NZ bank and eventually the payment is received by the Chinese factory in Yuan. So from NZD to USD to Yuan.

Under mBridge (if NZ was part of it) I could send payment denominated in NZD, USD or Yuan, but PAID directly from digital form NZD-Yuan.

Trial mBridge paymenets have been made and they are settled within seconds and cost a fraction of the SWIFT network cost. This is a huge reduction in trade payments friction- its not about what currency you might choose for SoV- I would always prefer Bitcoin for that!

My point being most businesses will see considerable advantage with the mBridge trade payments protocol over SWIFT which is slower and more expensive. And as China and Saudi Arabia and others are aware, subject to the risk of US sanctions.

mBridge is focused solely on cross border MoE, not SoV. However mBridge in challenging the USD SWIFT MoE hegemony in a significant manner does have indirect implications for the SoV viability of the USD.

mBridge enables bilateral trade payments settlements using the respective digital currencies of the trading nations - those payments could be denominated in any currency to preserve the value of the payment between agreement and settlement but no exchange via US banks or USDs would be required, even if the payment was denominated in USD.

In money MoE is the primary strategic property. SWIFT has (had?) strategic power because it can sanction nations and entities the USA disapproves of. But Chinas already operational alternatives to SWIFT (CIPS and shadow banking) can and do already provide N.Korea, Iran and Russia with effective trade payments MoE alternative to SWIFT...thus they can wage ongoing war against the US and its allies while maintaining trade payments.

SoV is more based upon the perceived and real integrity of those who control issuance and derivative of MoE fungability.

In a world where more and more trade is paid via mBridge how wealth would be stored would change and probably move away from USD denominated assets as the USA would have lost a significant monetary system hegemony but wealth storage might not move primarily toward Yuan denominated assets. Gold and Bitcoin might be preferred by some.

Making drugs illegal makes them very profitable. Making MoE use of Bitcoin illegal seriously reduces the number of people willing to use Bitcoin as a payment protocol as breaking those laws exposes them to risk of prosecution.

Thailand once led in adoption of Bitcoin then the military dominated Thailand government banned MoE use of Bitcoin and adoption plummeted. There are still a few brave Thai businesses who ignore this law but the law has resulted in considerable suppression of adoption and use of Bitcoin. Note Thailand is working directly with the Chinese in the development of the CBDC mBridge trade payments protocol and Thai government has used its own quasi CBDC payment system provide citizens with targeted payments during Covid- payments you can only use for essential like food not alcohol or cigarettes. Government who want to introduce CBDCs ghave a strong motive to prevent Bitcoin from getting popular uptake.

Even where Bitcoin MoE use is not outright banned as it is in most authoritarian countries the tax reporting obligations will discourage most people from using it as a MoE- most people don't want to break the law unless they really have a strong motive/reason to and there is no strong enough reason for most people to use Bitcoin as a MoE when that requires either absurd levels of recording and tax reporting, or ignoring the law and risking prosecution.

Here in New Zealand if you go to open a bank account you are asked whether you will be or ar involved in any 'crypto' activity- if you declare yes then you are very unlikely to be accepted by the bank. This applies equally to businesses. The banks and governments do not want citizens using Bitcoin as an alternative to fiat.

All governments who use fiat money to empower themselves and banks (nearly all governments! have strong motivation to prevent Bitcoin MoE use.

I cannot understand Bitcoiners who cannot see how Bitcoin being used as a MoE is a real threat to fiat operators and how fiat operators have either banned MoE use (eg China, Thailand etc) or stringently obstructed MoE use via tax requirements and threats of debanking(ie most of the 'liberal' democracies of the west).

@kepford cannot see and does not accept that China has won the trade war despite Trump already backing down and reframing his China tariffs ~ because USA cannot survive without the Chinese supply chains it has become dependent upon like a drug addict over the last 30-40 years.

Kepford ignores how the Bitcoin as Gold narrative encourages use of Bitcoin as a speculative commodity and discourages use as a MoE. Kepford cannot see how a world where Bitcoin is mostly used as a speculative commodity tracked and traced and taxed substantially reduces the threat it poses to fiat as fiats power comes primarily from its state backed monopoly over MoE.

Kepford calls me a troll when what Kepford does is exactly that which trolls do- they attack the messenger calling names while refusing to engage in good faith reasoned debate and contest of ideas - because they cannot accept the argument of the respondent but they cannot credibly refute them either.

The sly strategy of western bankers and governments has been to steer the Bitcoin narrative toward use as a speculative commodity and this has been largely successful with the vast majority of Bitcoin held by people under their jurisdictions held as a speculative commodity, taxed and tracked and traced and as a result posing very little threat to the fiat hegemony over MoE.

I do not accept that the outcome is inevitable- I do not want Bitcoin to end up completely captured and controlled as happened to gold in USA after Order 6102 and until 1971...if not since 1971 via ETFs and rehypothecation...

Yes we in most western democracies can still theoretically use Bitcoin as a MoE, but with hugely onerous technical barriers if we want to do so lawfully. Onerous barriers which have and will diasuade most businesses and consumers from bothering.

It is clear imo, that MoE use has been deliberately, slyly and successfully suppressed and that if we want to retain and expand the right to use Bitcoin as a P2P payments protocol the hugely obstructive tax requirements upon legal MoE use need to be acknowledged and removed.

Look at the pressure El Salvador has come under for simply declaring Bitcoin as legal tender.

Bitcoin as a MoE alternative to the state imposed bankers operated fiat monopoly is what the bankers and governments fear. It frees us of their domination and control over all our market place exchanges.

Bitcoin seen as and used as a KYCed, taxed, speculative commodity ('digital gold') is of little threat to them.

P2P payments are where the revolution lives and hopefully thrives, or dies, due to the sly and the sly serial obstruction of the fiat hegemony operators.

Trump knows the petrodollar is dying and 'crypto' will be useful just like the British rich pricks established their tax haven network as the British Empire faded away...

Warren Buffett

;)

'Im sick of all this statism.'

Then go live somewhere there is no functional government...

Libertarians struggle to understand that the wealth of nations is largely dependent upon their governments.

That is why a nation might operate a Bitcoin wallet.

Good luck with Donald Pinochet Trumps economic miracle.

All the best and brightest are already leaving the USA.

USA is looking more and more like a Banana Republic.

The claim that General Pinochet begat an economic powerhouse was one of those utterances whose truth rested entirely on its repetition.

The claim that Pinochet ruled for the benefit of the country can no longer be sustained.

In 1973, the year General Pinochet brutally seized the government, Chile’s unemployment rate was 4.3%. In 1983, after ten years of free-market modernization, unemployment reached 22%. Real wages declined by 40% under military rule.

In 1970, 20% of Chile’s population lived in poverty. By 1990, the year “President” Pinochet left office, the number of destitute had doubled to 40%. Quite a miracle.

Pinochet did not destroy Chile’s economy all alone. It took nine years of hard work by the most brilliant minds in world academia, a gaggle of Milton Friedman’s trainees, the Chicago Boys. Under the spell of their theories, the General abolished the minimum wage, outlawed trade union bargaining rights, privatized the pension system, abolished all taxes on wealth and on business profits, slashed public employment, privatized 212 state industries and 66 banks and ran a fiscal surplus.

Freed of the dead hand of bureaucracy, taxes and union rules, the country took a giant leap forward … into bankruptcy and depression. After nine years of economics Chicago style, Chile’s industry keeled over and died. In 1982 and 1983, GDP dropped 19%. The free-market experiment was kaput, the test tubes shattered. Blood and glass littered the laboratory floor.

Yet, with remarkable chutzpah, the mad scientists of Chicago declared success. In the US, President Ronald Reagan’s State Department issued a report concluding, “Chile is a casebook study in sound economic management.” Milton Friedman himself coined the phrase, “The Miracle of Chile.” Friedman’s sidekick, economist Art Laffer, preened that Pinochet’s Chile was, “a showcase of what supply-side economics can do.”