Yes that makes sense. I just love the chance to try and predict the future and see what others think too. It is a very interesting marketplace as you put your money where your mouth is and there is a real tendency for it to tend toward the truth due to market forces. We had a similar online market here in New Zealand years ago called 'ipredict' run by one of the universities statistics department, though it used fiat, and it was shut down by the government ruling party - that government did not appear to like a free and open marketplace in peoples expectations- they would rather try to control them! They have close associates will commercial polling companies... So imo prediction markets are a vital part of freedom of speech and democracy- as well as damn good fun. Hopefully bitcoin can help keep prediction markets open and free of government meddling and censorship.

Ok Thanks for that and I stand corrected. Am impressed that the actual fees are very reasonable. Just the perception of gain is less due to market price dynamics. It must be quite a complex algorithm to price the ever changing market odds! Well done and all the best.

Yes I read the fees 1% but there are multiple markets I have placed predictions and the resulting return shows far less than they would if only 1% fee. Maybe I have not understood some aspect but will continue to monitor as the bets finalise as it seems from the current figures in my portfolio that more than 1% is extracted. For example I have 8000 shares against the prediction that bitcoin will reach USD$140k in 2025. I paid .65 for each share and market price is now .75 yet my profit is shown as only 112 sats or 2%. .75/.65 is much greater than 2%...it is over 15%.

Maybe I am not accounting for dynamics of odds/pricing if I were to sell them on market now?

If I wait until market closes and I win I should receive at least 100/65 x 8000- 1%?

I predict if you do not lower the margins charged on bets you will probably never get mass adoption. It is a highly competitive market and if I make a bet and win it I need to get charged no more than 1% of the net gain to have sufficient incentive to continue participating. At present the margin charged seems to be far higher than 1% of net gain but it also seems to vary a lot which I cannot understand. The reward from making a correct bet is not currently sufficient to encourage new users to stay and more users to join. Other than that it is excellent!

You asked questions which challenge their NGU speculative commodity narrative and so they will attack you rather than address the inconvenient questions you ask.

Most people on SNs and 'Bitcoiners' generally are now captive to the speculative commodity narrative.

The bankers and governments are clever and sly and have largely captured the narrative with the speculative commodity bait.

Most people value personal wealth and comfort over principles and freedom.

Very few governments are not owned by the fiat debt slavery bankers cartel.

MoE use of Bitcoin is outright banned in most autocracies while in supposed democracies while technically possible the tax recording obligations make its effectively impractical.

As a kyced and taxed speculative commodity its much less of a threat and so they tolerate that and only that...in fact via ETFs and Treasury accumulation they further centralise custody and reduce MoE capacity.

This is a huge and long ignored problem. I am in much the same boat as you- wanting to spend my bitcoin but hugely limited in how to because so few retailers will accept it. This is no accident! Bankers and governments have slyly obstructed MoE adoption by imposing unreasonable tax recording and reporting obligations by arbitrarily designating Bitcoin as a speculative commodity despite the white paper explicitly describing Bitcoin as a p2p payment protocol. Use BTCmap.org and find any btc accepting businesses near you- and support them because we are up against massive and very determined obstruction from the fiat debt slavery bankers cartel and most bitcoiners even here on SNs as is evidenced in the other comments here are in denial about the scale of this problem. Many of them are here just for NGU speculative greed- not monetary freedom from the fiat debt slavery monetary system. The fiat debt slavery bankers cartel who own most governments have very successfully captured and controlled the narrative around the protocol (ie it is as a speculative commodity not a p2p payments protocol) and increasingly also the custody of the protocol...yet most even on here do not want to know and acknowledge this. As a speculative commodity Bitcoin is very little threat to the fiat operators. They have slyly captured it.

Is Coinos affected?

So many of these podcasts are such shallow and annoying bullshit - but this one really does have some depth.

BTW you forgot which sock puppet you were signed in as!

It must get quite confusing.

I identify and state the facts and issues. You seek to avoid them with cheap shoot the messenger name-calling, sophistry, evasion and trollery. It is what it is. A once great but now decadent empire in decline and denial. For all to see.

Yes NZ and other tributaries to the US military and monetary hegemony definitely follow the lead of the Fed. It began really pumping early 2000s with Bush2s war on Iraq and massive loosening of housing lending discipline- pumping the middle classes wealth perception. It has gone right back to 1990 since interest rates declined globally from 20%+ until Covid when they reached zero or even below zero. The constant easing of monetary discipline combined with cheaper and cheaper mortgage finance inflated house prices- but from here on the price of fiat debt cannot go much lower and incomes are constrained- the rentseeking fiat debt slavery bankers/military industrial combine its extracting maximum tribute but the whole shebang is unravelling. Thats my hapennyworth view on it. You can only financialise, rentseek and debt farm up to a point and then it stops. We are at that point or close to it. We need to actually return at some point to producing things that other people want/need to buy to earn an honest crust- but the west has mostly forgotten that and needs a wake up call. NZ grass fed lamb beef and dairy are the best value BTW- not that I'm biased ;)

They are not allowing citizens to use Bitcoin- only importers and exporters. This is probably Putin seeking to reduce dependence upon Chinese shadow banking which has come to route a lot of Russian international trade payments. Putin has made Russia a subservient tribute state to Chinese energy imports and manufactured goods exports. Again it is China that is leading the increasingly direct challenge to US hegemony via its growing alliance of autocratic militaristic associates...because China has already won the trade war and USA cannot seriously put sanctions on China or it would suffer immense damage to the remnants of US military industrial capacity. Not to mention China now being a crucial member of the IMFs board of reserve currency issuers...the only one that is not a military and monetary tribute state to USA.

You keep misinterpreting and misrepresenting what I have actually said. In the above comment I am describing the (misguided) intent of participants, not the nature of the protocol.

Do you understand the distinction? Perhaps not.

Its very annoying and makes have a decent constructive and rational dialogue very difficult when you lack basic comprehension and reasoning skills.

Actually take your time to read and comprehend what I and others say before spouting off such pure banal nonsense.

Its 16 here in New Zealand- any older is oppressive, surely? Women mature significantly earlier than men. 16/28 might be frowned upon by some but some people are never happy when others find love.

Now you are begging me to shut up. Do realise you could not give me stronger encouragement. You have a lot to learn about politics and human nature.

Tesla helped show the Chinese how to build EVs, (just as they have reverse engineered most significant western technology via a similar process) but today Tesla is no longer the leader- BYD is, by a huge profit and market share margin.

This seems to have gone woooosh over your head...clouded perhaps by a haze of US Exceptionalist delusion?

'A major part of creating a robust EV industry is to establish a local supply chain instead of being dependent on other countries. As mentioned, this is one thing that China is extremely good at and one that they were able to innovate and reduce its cost at a rapid pace. Remember the Volvo EX30 and its surprisingly affordable base price? This is due to a base version that uses a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery. While it's something that Western companies have shunned as they've mostly favored lithium nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) batteries, Chinese companies continued to innovate on LFP batteries. LFP batteries are cheaper and safer, and though they initially did not meet the energy density and low-temperature performance of NMC batteries, Chinese battery companies, most prominently Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) managed to narrow the energy gap of LFP whilst keeping its cost down.

Lastly, China also controls a whole lot of necessary materials for batteries. It doesn't have the most abundant natural resources for batteries, but it has the majority of the world's refinery capacity for nickel, cobalt, sulfate, lithium hydroxide, and graphite. Right now, a lot of countries are forging partnerships with countries like Chile in order to have greater access to their mines for rare-earth metals, but that's the critical part--it's still being established. China, on the other hand, already had a solid battery supply chain from raw materials to production for nearly a decade. As a result of all of these investments, CATL is already dominating battery supplies globally, accounting for 34 percent of worldwide EV batteries as of the end of 2022. Following in second is LG Energy Solution from South Korea, accounting for 14 percent of EV batteries globally. CATL, however, is just one of the six Chinese companies that are part of the top 10 biggest battery suppliers globally.'

Note- Politics are important to me-I enjoy the contest of ideas that is fundamental to our freedoms and wealth - as they seem to be to you also, and should be for any citizen that values and appreciates the importance of genuine representative democracy, but while I express genuine concern about the decline and corruption evident in our western democracies you are seemingly in cynical denial - you are spending just as much of your time on here as me- though of course I am not a taxpayer funded apologist for US imperialism. I am a self employed since 1983 free thinker and am not bound by any paid servitude to any politcal masters...unlike you.

Important and fundamental principle of power wielding in a democracy called Conflict of Interest.

Since you do not seem to understand it - it is where you use your position of power and influence for personal gain.

Contrary to the most basic principles that underpin representative democracy, but that seem to now be largely forgotten/ignored in the TACO POTUS administration.

Symptomatic of an empire in terminal decline.

Batteries Made Much Cheaper In China...because they have been investing in this technology since the early 2000s and have the scale and supply chains to produce batteries at half the cost USA can.

China has won the energy generation contest already. https://dialecticaldispatches.substack.com/p/the-ai-race-isnt-about-chips-its

Good on California for trying but facing huge structural opposition from the POTUS and his insane fossil fueled climate change denier road to nowhere. Time to leave the union?

Maybe buying refined rare earths stockpile on the black market?

Spacex will be grounded for the next decade without rare earths supply.

Tesla would be equally immobilised.