Thank you! We're working on a more anonymous version to enable private betting (+ selling of shares before event happens for more accurate forecasting) such that you don't reveal your lightning address to everyone.

We're going to keep the markets online until we resolve them and make the payouts.

It's back online now, co-founder was testing some stuff in the backend, accidentally unlisted the topic.

Apologies, for some reason it became unlisted. It is still active though. I'm contacting my co-foudner right now. Here is the link if you are interested in the meantime.

We can always make a payout from a different wallet or node, but it would be nice if we could fix this bug. Albyhub is another potential option, if you're interested in running a self-custodial node in the cloud. It costs a little bit of money, but by paying that price you get self-sovereignty and custody over your own funds.

Any reason why you don't want to try Androi/IOS mobile apps? They're pretty good.

For some reason I can't connect to coinos as a peer. Maybe their node has some special rules or something. I connected and opened a channel to one of their peers, hopefully that helps. Otherwise I think it's something on their side.

Great, I saw your bets. I can open a channel tonight, hopefully that can help.

Yeah I really wish the lightning network had better reliability. It's really not good if more payments fail as the network grows. The devs at lightning labs and other infrastructure providers need to focus on better routing reliability rather than stablecoins if they actually want the Bitcoin-native lightning network to succeed.

The only thing I could suggest is possibly trying wallet of satoshi, zbd wallet, or blink. I know those work, and I bet you could transfer from the coinos wallet to one of those.

Well we do have open channels with mutual peers. Coinos wallet is connected to megalith node, which is connected to us. There's both inbound and outbound liquidity in those channels, so it's strange that the payment failed. I even examined their node and balanced all the channels.

My guess is that the native routing algorithms are pretty shitty so they stop trying to find a route after a few attempts. But, according to your error, have you tried increasing the max fee in your wallet? That might have something to do with it.

Also have you tried possibly using your stacker news wallet? That one works (until Nov 5th I believe).

So our node is online, channels have sufficient inbound/outbound liquidity, and other wallets work. Many times lightning payments fail because of pathfinding issues between the nodes.

Your node might be struggling to find a route because of the decentralization of the Lightning network. As the network becomes more decentralized, payments become harder to process simply because the native pathfinding algorithm sucks.

I can look into opening some direct channels with coinos.io wallet, maybe that can help.

I just made a bet with walletofsatoshi and getalby... not sure why your wallet might be failing.... Are your channels misconfigured?

Not sure what could be the problem, our node is online and we have channels with inbound liquidity. Let me look into this deeper.

We just fixed it

Sure, we're thinking of tracking with polymarket at the moment. Once overwhelming and obvious consensus is reached, we will release the payouts. I anticipate there might be some conflict after the results are released, as regardless of which party wins, the other will dispute it.

If you click on the title of the post then you can see all of the bets. Same goes for the other markets as well.

Any good idea should have some competition, and right now polymarket is the big one to compete with. Similar to crypto exchanges, there's room for 10-20 multi-billion dollar prediction markets by 2030.

Next week I'll be a Tabconf, might be busy, maybe in 2-3 weeks I'll be more free.

This article gave me some inspiration with regards to LMSR and the cost of running the market.

Triible looks cool, censorship resistant betting could be a massive driver of Bitcoin adoption globally. I first bought Bitcoin in 2017 to gamble it away on Pokerstars (Fiat to Coinbase to Bitcoin to Zelle to Pokerstars). Seems like the product-market fit was already there, it's just about the UX and building out a network effect. I even played csgo poker, where I could deposit my csgo skins and gamble at super micro stakes (like 0.1c/0.2c). Bitcoin Lightning could be a perfect medium of exchange to enable that, but it's less about building product and more about getting it to market, and getting traction from paying customers.

Most definitely would love to chat, I'll be at Tabconf and Adopting Bitcoin later this year. You planning on going to any conferences?

When we get the traction and capital, we'd love to build on either of them. Just gotta get that traction and raise another round of funding first.

This makes me very bullish. I like the way you think. More traders doing this would make for much better forecasting.

Stats are listed below the topics. Click on the title of the topic to go there. We thought it would be better to show all the stats below the topics, rather than on a separate page.

We show the bets placed, but the fees are deducted when we send the payouts (1% fee at the moment). The total odds add up to 108% because it is basically

Odds_total = Odds_Trump + Odds_Kamala = Y_T/(Y_T+N_T) + Y_K/(Y_K + N_K).

Both markets are independent (betting on Trump does not change Kamala's odds, it only changes Trump's odds), so they are not necessarily supposed to add up to 100%. For a clever user like yourself there's an arbitrage opportunity there to balance the odds. Few people have spotted that so far.