Tap water to the equivalent of other countries like here in Germany =good

going beyond that = waste of time and money

There are solid investigations into this. Cut the biggest waste/fraud first:

Unfortunately I don't think Elon is smart enough to cut what makes sense first. He's the kind of guy that cuts for populist reasons or what gives him the most headlines first.

It's just everyone except old people where dying of cancer is hard to dying from old age. And then added 20 to 30 years of age for separation.

So yeah, the 54yo young people :p

I recently saw a line of a few Starlinks rising. It was fascinating, it really looked as if they were much lower than one would expect them to be over Europe. Easy to mistake them for UAPs.

Well, markets can't talk and therefore we don't know what the market is actually pricing in with this gap for sure.

I can't think of many other reasons other than assassination. After two assassination attempts ... what else could it be?

So that's just my best guess. As I already said: the stepping down or medical incident reasons are probably close to zero. What else is there?

I get so many ads for this podcast&newsletter, it's absurd. I guess Bloomberg want to repeat their Odd Lots success.

The funniest thing is how Katie say "...We have fun, we get weird and we want you to join us" with the most bored voice in existence in the ad lol.

Oh that's a good point. The odds would be more in the 3%ish range then.

I can follow but I don't see anyone make this bet now.

Would have been an interesting bet a month ago. But now Harris has already conceded.

Doesn't make sense. If Vance gets inaugurated then Trump doesn't get inaugurated. Therefore the 5% would win their bet.

I might have invented the assassination part for clickbait reasons but there are not many other possibilities for Trump to not get inaugurated.

1/20 is a lot. Certainly higher than the natural chance of dying from a heart attack.

Theoretically this could also mean he steps down before inauguration. I don't think this is what markets expect. But theoretically a president-elect can legally choose to step down before inauguration & the line of succession would come into play. Which would automatically mean president Vance.

Conclusion: this is an odd stat. Anybody got any better explanations than my 3 suggestions?

Get some crazy photographs out of it, make a website and get accused of lying for the rest of my life

Oh for sure there are moles used for spying.

I bet there are many PhDs in the US that got lucrative offers when they visited home on holidays. And I bet many of them get fed false information by US counter spies

Edit: If I had to guess, the same thing is probably happening over there. The PLA is probably littered by american spies. A lot of which get fed false information. lol. It's a cat and mouse game.

Look, I'm not a fan of the chinese regime and generally suspicious of chinese industrial espionage. But this is a bad trend. Universities, research and education are an important tie for cultural exchange. And cultural exchange is an important undercurrent in preventing war - something that should be in everybodys interest. Bad trend.

Advent/Winter decorations = on 1st Advent

strictly Christmas deco = beginning on Christmas eve

I am really on Mike Tysons side here. But I think people underestimate the effects of age. So Jake Paul will probably unfortunately win. At least that's my guess.