Game Theory: Simulation 2025–2040 (LATAM ✦ USD)
A simple dream:
Turn 1 BTC into a self-sustaining pension, leveraging its future value as collateral — without selling it, without banks, and without relying on the State. All it takes is commitment, long-term vision… and access to fiat liquidity.
Turn 1 BTC into a self-sustaining pension, leveraging its future value as collateral — without selling it, without banks, and without relying on the State. All it takes is commitment, long-term vision… and access to fiat liquidity.
📋 Initial Parameters
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Initial BTC as collateral | 1 BTC |
| Reference value (May 2025) | 100,000 USD/BTC |
| Expected annual BTC growth | ≈ 15% compound¹ |
| USD inflation | 4.5% annual |
| Loan interest rate | 5% simple, paid yearly |
| Max allowed LTV | 50% |
| Desired net salary (2025) | 10,000 USD, grows 4.5%/year |
Loan policy:
- Only the principal is capitalized (interest is paid in cash).
- Borrow up to the 50% LTV limit each year.
- Use loan proceeds to pay the salary first;
reinvest the surplus into buying more BTC at that year's price.
¹ You can adjust the 15% BTC growth assumption and recalculate.
⚠️ For better safety, consider keeping LTV under 33%.
📊 Annual Table (all values in USD unless stated otherwise)
| Year | BTC Price | Salary Paid | Interest Paid | Loan Principal | BTC Bought | Total BTC | Final LTV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 100,000 | 10,000 | 0 | 50,000 | 0.4000 | 1.4000 | 35.7 % |
| 2026 | 115,000 | 10,450 | 2,500 | 80,500 | 0.1743 | 1.5743 | 44.5 % |
| 2027 | 132,250 | 10,920 | 4,025 | 104,104 | 0.0959 | 1.6703 | 46.2 % |
| 2028 | 152,087 | 11,411 | 5,205 | 130,810 | 0.0794 | 1.7497 | 47.0 % |
| 2029 | 174,901 | 11,925 | 6,541 | 159,632 | 0.0712 | 1.8209 | 45.7 % |
| 2030 | 201,136 | 12,460 | 7,982 | 191,106 | 0.0719 | 1.8928 | 47.5 % |
| 2031 | 231,306 | 13,019 | 9,555 | 225,416 | 0.0730 | 1.9658 | 48.7 % |
| 2032 | 266,002 | 13,605 | 11,271 | 262,746 | 0.0739 | 2.0397 | 49.4 % |
| 2033 | 305,902 | 14,219 | 13,137 | 303,398 | 0.0746 | 2.1143 | 47.1 % |
| 2034 | 351,788 | 14,861 | 15,170 | 347,551 | 0.0753 | 2.1896 | 46.1 % |
| 2035 | 404,556 | 15,534 | 17,378 | 395,463 | 0.0758 | 2.2655 | 45.3 % |
| 2036 | 465,239 | 16,240 | 19,773 | 447,436 | 0.0761 | 2.3416 | 44.6 % |
| 2037 | 535,025 | 16,966 | 22,372 | 503,739 | 0.0762 | 2.4178 | 43.9 % |
| 2038 | 615,279 | 17,736 | 25,187 | 564,662 | 0.0761 | 2.4939 | 42.8 % |
| 2039 | 707,571 | 18,519 | 28,233 | 630,468 | 0.0758 | 2.5697 | 41.7 % |
| 2040 | 813,706 | 19,353 | 31,523 | 701,458 | 0.0744 | 2.6441 | 40.6 % |
🧠 Quick Summary
- You start with 1 BTC as collateral.
- Each year, you borrow up to 50% of your BTC value.
- From the loan:
- You pay yourself a salary (adjusted for inflation).
- You reinvest the surplus in more BTC.
- By 2040, you’ve accumulated ~2.64 BTC, and LTV remains under 50%.
- You never sold your BTC — you just used it to extract value safely.
🧯 What if BTC drops one year?
A 30% drop could push your LTV to ~58–65%.
Not catastrophic, but your lender may ask for more collateral or partial repayment.
Not catastrophic, but your lender may ask for more collateral or partial repayment.
Risk mitigations:
- Set aside a portion of your salary as a reserve fund.
- Avoid borrowing 100% of your LTV margin — leave some room.
- If BTC spikes, consider not borrowing that year.
🔧 How to Adjust This Simulation
- 📈 Change BTC growth to fit your scenario (10%, 20%, etc.).
- 💵 Modify the base salary (5k, 15k…).
- 📉 Simulate higher interest rates (8%, 10%...).
- 🛑 Lower the LTV cap (e.g. 40%) for more safety.
🛡️ Risk Management
- Leverage allows growth, but it’s a double-edged sword.
- A low LTV is your shield — stay below 50%, ideally between 30–40%.
- Long-term discipline matters more than short-term price moves.
⚠️ Disclaimer – Dreaming is free, but executing requires responsibility
This article is an educational simulation based on optimistic assumptions.
It does not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of returns.
It does not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of returns.
🌱 Dreaming costs nothing, but making it happen requires knowledge, discipline, and responsibility.
💵 This strategy requires access to fiat currency (USD or your local currency) to pay interest and sustain the cycle.
BTC is the engine — but the world still runs on fiat.
BTC is the engine — but the world still runs on fiat.
🌎 In LATAM, where inflation and uncertainty are constant, this could become a personal pension plan: sovereign, realistic, and independent.
⚖️ Leverage is risky. If BTC crashes or you mismanage your LTV, you could lose your collateral.
🎯 Use this idea as inspiration, not as a blueprint. Adapt it to your reality. Study. Improve. Protect your future.
🧾 Key Glossary
- Collateral: Asset used as loan guarantee (in this case, BTC).
- LTV (Loan-to-Value): Ratio between the loan amount and collateral value.
- Simple interest: Calculated on the principal only, not compounded.
- Leverage: Using debt to gain more exposure without selling.
- Leverage-based pension: Income strategy backed by growing BTC value, without selling your stack.