pull down to refresh

There are a lot of sophisticated investors on this site, but I suspect few have ever bought a financial asset that outperformed an apple tree.
Let's do some quick math using rough averages:
An apple tree graft costs about $35. It takes 4 years to start bearing fruit, and then has a productive life of 25 years. There are minimal ongoing expenses, mostly watering and mulch. In some cases, these costs can be zero, but let's budget $5/year.
That's a total cost of $160 over the lifetime of the apple tree.
Over 25 years, one can expect an apple tree to produce 7,500 apples, peaking at 400 apples per year. There is a wide variation of 100-800 apples/year for different types of trees in different environments, but let's keep things simple. A decent sized apple is 1/3 of a pound, so that's 2,500 pounds of apples produced from one tree over its lifetime.
Commodity prices for apples are $2-3/lb, and direct sale prices are $5/lb. Specialty or organic varieties can cost more, but let's assume you sell apples for $4/lb.
Let's also assume the apple tree is not treated with pesticides. That means no fertilizer costs, though you may get some apples lost to pests and disease (picking disease-resistant varieties can reduce these losses).
Let's lower production expectations by 20% to account for unexpected losses. That means 2,000 lbs of apples over a lifetime, sold at $4/lb for a grand total of $8,000, or $320/year.
In other words, you're getting a 64x return each year from a $5/year input of water and mulch.
And even when accounting for the upfront cost of the tree, $320 is double the lifetime input costs for your apple tree, and you get it every single year for a quarter of a century. Not bad.
But what about all the labor, packing, and selling related costs?
A typical apple tree can be harvested with hand tools in 3 hours, so let's assume that is worth $100 of your time (the average hourly wage in the US today). If there are another 3 hours spent packing and selling apples, that still produces a $115/year profit.
But what if you don't want to sell your apples? Well, you stand to earn even more money. Recall that a typical apple tree produces 400 apples/year, and 1 apple/day keeps your doctor away.
If you choose to eat your 400 apples each year, you don't have to pack or sell your apples, and the time spent harvesting them simply replaces the time you would have otherwise spent in the apple section at the grocery store each week.
It's true that some varieties of apples don't keep well, but varieties like Goldrush can store well for 6-8 months, and their flavor actually improves during storage. They also have strong disease resistance and top-tier flavor in general.
So you get your full $315/year of profit in the form of grocery bill savings, and since you're not making any direct sales by consuming your own apples, you have no sales taxes to pay as a producer.
So... can you outperform an apple tree?
10 sats \ 0 replies \ @AG 4h
Infallible business model! Bookmarked for next TM7.
reply
10 sats \ 0 replies \ @zapsammy 5h
a few additional benefits of an apple tree in one's own garden:
  • one can make jams, crispy apple chips, apple pies
  • a shade for other plants to grow in or for people to relax in
  • the smell of apples in the morning is refreshing
  • wildlife thriving around the apple tree brings incalculable benefits
  • medical bills saved by not consuming toxic foreign apples are not priced in; fiat insurance can be ditched
an even greater treasure is discovering a wild apple tree on ur occasional hikes;
reply
I just planted 10 fruit trees last week (root stock) that cost $65 total... Officially short Bitcoin.
reply
A friend of mine planted a tract of land his parents owned with black walnut trees. The idea is that he can easily retire on the value of the mature trees when the time comes. Not sure how that compares to apples, but there are no inputs post planting.
reply
42 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr OP 16h
This is the correct answer.
Black walnut trees outperform apple trees over the long run. You get valuable nuts annually and valuable timber many years down the road.
reply
41 sats \ 0 replies \ @gnilma 4h
and valuable timber many years down the road.
As a carpenter, I fully concur. Walnut is one of the more sought after and expensive hard woods out there.
reply
We have one in our yard. The nuts are an enormous pain in the ass to get out and they aren't as good as normal walnuts (or at least that's how most people feel). This summer I'm going to try bringing them to a service that will process them in exchange for a share of the walnut butter.
reply
This is my dream to plant walnut garden. If it's not a secret, how many hectares he planted?
reply
I doubt it's a secret, but I don't recall.
reply
10 sats \ 2 replies \ @OT 16h
Not sure if it's that easy. You might find that the apples you grow are small and sour. Often have bugs or don't look nice.
People don't pay for apples like this. Maybe you could use it to make apple sauce I guess.
reply
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 16h
Yeah if you venture into value added products like sauces, dried fruit, and jams, you’ll be taking on more labor but also getting more revenue.
Probably lowers the return on a percentage basis though.
reply
Got to prune every year to get bigger fungus free apples, but the fruit wood can be chunked and sold in bags to meat/cheese smokers
reply
10 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 17h
You need to have land to put your Apple tree on. One Apple tree in your backyard probably doesn’t take up too much space but if you tried to scale up your Apple tree business you need some land.
reply
40 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 17h
Sure, let's assume you're using marginal land for one tree. As long as you have soil and some sunlight, you're set.
You can also take this investment idea to your neighbor if you can't afford land, and split the profits with them.
reply
I can’t beat an apple tree. Such a brilliant reflection! So sad I can’t grow one here 😢
reply
Hard truth: Nature laughs at fiat. An apple tree quietly outperforms most portfolios… plus it feeds you. Try that with stocks.
reply