"...or might not."
Generally, when people drive and insist on looking in the rearview mirror bad shit happens.
Forecasting economic recessions, let alone how the infinitely complex financial system breaks down, is pretty much impossible.
Central bankers are always fighting the last war, etc., and publications like this one are perfectly hedged: anything can happen, but if they're right they're gonna look like geniuses.
Still, a nice-ish report -- and I was hoping the little "b" they shoved in the button corner was a subtle hint to bitcoin, the decentralized currency we know is at the risky core of the financial edifice. (LOL)
The craze in cryptocurrencies and leveraged exchange-traded funds is already making the meme-stock madness of 2021 look quaint by comparison.
Some other candidates include: Fragile regional banks, falling commercial property prices, highly valued technology stocks. Nothing about Saylor (#980200, #961162) or the 37trn behemoth Treasury market.
...and, you've never believe this: MISTER TRUMP! #986107
...his second term has already proved to be an agent of chaos for financial markets.
Rapid growth in financial markets often fosters and obfuscates weaknesses which become visible only during periods of crisis. How might a crisis play out? [...] When the next crisis does come, American financial institutions will undoubtedly be at the centre of it. The world will be left to contend with the fallout.
EVERYONE will suffer, because American financial markets rule the roost and courtesy of trade deficit, everyone in the rest of the world owns a bunch of American assets:
The flip-side of America’s current-account deficit is increasing foreign ownership of its assets, since the dollars America pays for things made elsewhere are invested in dollar-denominated assets.
Talk about synchronized risks, eh.
What do the Stackers think? What's gonna break next time?
non-paywalled: https://archive.md/IHoO8