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China’s economic rocket ride appears to be ending – or slowing, at least. Growth has declined from 8.4% in 2021 to 4.5% today, youth unemployment has climbed to 16.9%, and cities are filled with unfinished buildings after the collapse of property developer Evergrande in 2024.
For a while now, a phrase has been buzzing on Chinese social media sites Weibo and RedNote to describe what’s happening: “garbage time”.
Borrowed from basketball slang, it refers to the final minutes of a game whose outcome is already decided. The best players sit out. The bench players take over. No one tries as hard because there’s less at stake.
The term caught on last year and seems to capture a mixture of sadness and dark humour. Basically, people now seem to expect less. It’s not so much an economic crash as a slow decline of hope.
垃圾时间, is that also a common expression in Singapore? Or only in modern day mainland China? @cryotosensei
I have never heard of this phrase before until today!
Actually, Singaporeans got to learn a lot of Chinese trending phrases like 躺平 and 摆烂 at around the same time as the rest of the world. We are not that culturally connected haha!
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135 sats \ 9 replies \ @OT 4 Apr
I think 4.5% growth is still good compared with the rest of the world. The 2021 stat of 8.4% might have been a bit cherry picked as it was off the COVID bounce.
Interesting to see how it plays out. Zeihan still things China will collapse.
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I wonder what he considers a collapse... Like a recession? Or worse? Plebs rebelling?
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0 sats \ 7 replies \ @OT 4 Apr
Demographics. He's been saying it for years BTW
I think he's a bit over confident on everything he says. Not sure if you remember his Rogan interview where he said Bitcoin would go negative. Lol
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China is also full steam ahead on AI and bioinformatics, so they will likely aim to replace the existing workforce with AI and highly specialized people
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @OT 4 Apr
I did listen to his book The End of the World is Just the Begining and I remember he addressed this claim. If I remember correct he said something like it's too little too late.
The book was written before the recent LLM boom. But even if we get amazing AI tech that can do most of our current jobs, what are all the people going to do with themselves? They love making money! It's often put as a higher priority than the family.
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This sounds glib, but they will do what they must. They will adjust to a new way of life where people are likely devalued. Neo-feudalism is emerging everywhere it seems
Here's a counter view
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 4 Apr
Yeah, because of his over confident call on Bitcoin you can't really take him too seriously. You know how traders talk when the analyse a chart? They usually don't commit too far to either end. Zeihan talks in absolutes and I think it's not a good strategy.
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Ah a Youtube Doomsday Prophet :) that's a popular niche these days...
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@bxu, what's your opinion on this piece? Does it match your experience in China?
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I love the application of garbage time to the bust phase of a business cycle. I might have to think about how far that metaphor can go.
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You assume they are referring to 'garbage time' as meaning a Chinese loss is inevitable.
They might see it conversely as China having already won the trade war and defeat of the wests global hegemony as being a foregone conclusion!
Trumps global tariff war is most likely to result in other countries to be even more reliant upon trade with China as China is already demonstrably providing the most attractive trade offering in terms of manufactured goods and commodities.
And then there's shipping and logistics...already overwhelmingly dominated by China.
Rare earths. Won.
AI, robotics, biotech, nanotech, solar, wind, hydro and nuclear energy technology, 5G and other post industrial era strategic technologies where China increasingly leads the west or is catching up.
mBridge and other Chinese digital trade payment protocol alternatives to USD SWIFT are already operational and could undermine US financial system hegemony and reserve currency status, if US debt insolvency doesn't do that first.
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Good read
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