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Much of infertile world is the wealthy, developed part that does most of the innovating and building that makes it possible for so many of us to be alive and prospering today. For those of us who intend to live well into the future, that’s not a happy fact, and if we want to live better lives, it’s a fact that demands a solution. Unfortunately, child benefits intended to promote fertility tend to have only small to modest effects. A problem with that inference is that most child benefits have also been small to modest in terms of generosity. In truth, massive benefits have not been tried, and, indeed, may seem to make little fiscal sense.
But Robin Hanson has an interesting proposal that might just work, and could fix Social Security in the process. The idea is simple: Let parents claim a portion of the taxes their children pay.
In the Hanson Scheme, the lifetime value of the payouts should be left uncapped. This is where the massive pronatal transfer side of the scheme comes in: uncapped benefits from the taxes of people’s children mean more kids net higher total payouts, and making kids more productive does the same. If parents obtain a constant fraction of the taxes their children pay, the upside to a given birth could be enormous. Because the transfers in this scheme are dependent on ongoing taxation and made immediately available, there will not be a funding issue like there has been for Social Security.
Really interesting scheme.
There's a shitty version of this already, which is welfare paid out per child. This has obvious virtues, but my friend is a section 8 landlord and has many stories over the years of this benefit being exploited as a kind of "career" which I think is not holding with the spirit of the thing.
Not a thing you can say in polite company. The prevalence of it I don't know, though, so maybe it's rare in absolute terms.
Anyway, interesting comparison to Hanson's scheme.
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I feel like it won't be workable. Paternity/maternity is hard enough to establish without the government stepping in. To operationalize this would require a multigenerational data collection and maintenance effort by the government of very personal biological data.
Just cut social security. People will start having kids!
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Not sure if I agree but very creative idea by Robin Hanson
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There should be a rule against posting controversial but interesting content on 1 April….
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