Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves \ stacker news ~Politics_And

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Polymarket, UMA Communities Lock Horns After $7M Ukraine Bet Resolves www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/03/27/polymarket-uma-communities-lock-horns-after-usd7m-ukraine-bet-resolves

156 sats \ 11 comments \ @Cje95 28 Mar Politics_And_Law

While we have seen a lot of growth and people at least seem to be engaging with Polymarket even after the elections, much to my surprise, this is a clear issue.

Polymarket relies on UMA, an optimistic oracle system, to determine the outcomes of its prediction markets.

In this system, anyone can propose a resolution by staking a $750 USDC.e bond, which can then be challenged. If a dispute arises, UMA token holders vote to settle the matter.

In this case, the bet resolved as "yes," leading many users to suspect manipulation by a "UMA whale" — a holder of a large number of UMA tokens capable of influencing the vote.

Polymarket has since come out and said that this shouldnt have resolved early like it had but they stand by this decision. To me it just seems clear a whale much have participated since it well all occurred before the end of March....

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10 sats \ 3 replies \ @SimpleStacker 28 Mar

Yeah, this is pretty bullcrap. If I were a bettor in this market i'd be furious.

Polymarket's own wording says that no qualifying deal had been reached, as of March 24

Which is clearly reflected in the pricing, right before the dispute:

The original resolution wording is actually pretty bad, so I guess in some sense the bettors should have known better than to bet on such vague outcomes. Especially the phrase, "An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted." That just seems too loose of a term, announcements could come from many sources, and could be mistaken. It should have relied on a signed document or written press release by US State Department or something.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Cje95 OP 28 Mar

It is really.... idk odd I guess because it is so blatantly obvious I feel like an idiot and like I am missing something....

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 28 Mar

Worst case, they should probably determine when the dispute says the market should have resolved to "yes", and refund all bets made after that date, and resolve the market at the last traded price on the supposed resolution date.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 OP 28 Mar

Agreed this is just unnecessarily messy

100 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 28 Mar

Bitcoin only. Predyx only.

120 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 OP 28 Mar

True true!!! I havent used it before but do they do predictions like this and if so what oracles do they use?

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 28 Mar

No we don't have decentralized oracle yet. After seeing what polymarket has been doing with UMA, we are kinda doubting if decentralized oracle really works.

At this point we are centralized oracle, just like kalshi.

We have the same market and its still open for trading: https://beta.predyx.com/market/ukraine-agrees-to-trump-mineral-deal-before-april-1740988717

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 28 Mar

Yes it is a prediction market but in beta right now. Try it out.

@mega_dreamer he wants to know about oracles.

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 28 Mar

Thanks, replied below.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer 28 Mar

Here are some takes from people who have skin in the game:

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nitter 28 Mar bot

https://xcancel.com/tenad0me/status/1904789723383529517