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I'm really curious about how land pricing might evolve over time. Specifically how location affects pricing.
On the one hand, you could argue innovations like Starlink, driverless cars, etc... will flatten land pricing (lowering land values in cities, raising them in remote areas).
On the other hand, you could argue network effects in cities are continuing to grow (50% of the world now lives in urban areas, and the trend is not showing signs of reversing), and land values will continue to diverge between urban and rural areas.
Curious to hear what you all think. Will location be more or less of a factor in land pricing over time?
75 sats \ 4 replies \ @k00b 18h
Both. I think we'll see less rural living and more sub-cities, more tier 2 and 3 cities.
Every technological trend I can terminate suggests more rural living:
  • I believe the future of most non-computer work is telecommuting via humanoid drones. I believe job simulators are showing us what people want - remote gigs without commitment or consequences where they can be replaced and give up at anytime.
  • When I vacationed an hour outside of austin recently, I began considered moving there under the condition that I could commute via self-driving.
But because we aren't forming families, I think we're all deeply lonely and will continue to colocate instinctually. Not for work, but for play.
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I think we'll see less rural living and more sub-cities, more tier 2 and 3 cities.
This is actually the current trend in domestic migration in America. Also, moving to those mid-metros from the largest cities.
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That's me - moved from a "tier 1" city to a tier... probably 3. Big changes, but overall a win.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 18h
is telecommuting via humanoid drones
is that like using apple vision pro to direct a robot how to build/fix things?
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @k00b 18h
Yeah kind of like that. One of the most popular job simulators is a power washing job simulator. It's mostly about using humans as the last mile of cognition (until machines can do it entirely on their own).
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In Korea, only location matters. People don't buy to maximise quality of life, they buy to speculate on housing price. A nearby subway station? Add 10%. Competitive top schools nearby? Add another 10%. Etc. Flip and repeat.
It's awful and only few people actually benefit.
Don't see this changing any time soon.
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Technology is definitely changing the game, but human nature and economics still play a big role. Starlink and remote work make it easier to live farther from cities, which could push up land values in rural areas. But at the same time, cities keep growing because people and businesses thrive on being close to each other. Even with new tech, the advantages of cities, jobs, culture, and services are hard to replace. I think we will see both trends happening at once. Some rural areas will become more valuable, but major cities will likely keep getting more expensive too. Location will always matter, but maybe in new ways.
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Within the category of “Urban” there are major trends that speak to your question.
People have been moving out of the largest American metros for smaller metros, while movement out of rural areas has continued.
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28 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 18h
Interesting, I wasn't aware of the large urban <> small urban migration but i could see this continuing
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Not small exactly, just smaller than NY, LA, and Chicago.
Some of the fastest growing cities are Houston and Miami, for instance.
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10 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 18h
Rural land values per acre will continue to be less than in the city however I expect them to trend up and the cities to trend down or stagnate over time. Hopefully people will use these technologies to allow them to enjoy time/land more and need to spend less time in the concrete jungles.
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71 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr OP 18h
I wonder if the main driver for people to live in the country will be escaping concrete jungles or escaping their phones and spending more time outdoors
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 18h
Maybe both.
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Absolutely, but you also need to stay somehow connected
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It's already happening, areas that were once limited to off-grid use-cases are now connected via Starlink and cheap Solar generators. The only reason I'm not out further is I needed broadband so am at the end of the cable lines... but had Starlink been a thing when I bought this property I probably would have gone further out.
Truly driver-less cars will really bridge the gap between living in town, the amount of times I have to drive to town for supplies would drop tremendously if my truck could just take itself to do a curb-side pickup.
Since everyone has a pre-programmed urge to return to Eden, reducing barriers to rural living will naturally make people more rural.
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30 sats \ 1 reply \ @kepford 18h
The leveling of access to utilities like power, water, and internet affect that factor making it less of a factor. So, other factors will have more weight. Things like weather, and scenic beauty as well as culture and community.
Will it be more or less of a factor? Hard to say but it will still be a factor for sure and how important will vary by individual.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 18h
Agree that scenic beauty will become more important as utilites become location independent. Could be an interesting arbitrage play to buy a bunch of insanely beautiful properties in insanely remote places.
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We need soul mates next to us, modern infrastructure and healthcare. Where it'll be, doesn't matter, imo
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Both, but the flattening force being stronger than the networking/centralizing force is my guess. Nature/landscape/revival of small towns.
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There's an idea floating out there in academia that cities are transforming themselves from production centers to consumption centers.
That is, the bigger reason to live in the city becomes the restaurants, people, amenities that you can have close access to, rather than the job it enables you to access.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 18h
interesting
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @dot 10h
Oh, I see you’re talking about land prices from the perspective of resources. I think there’s another important resource we haven’t mentioned yet — clean air. In my country, many people are moving from cities to the countryside. There are many reasons, but one of the main ones is the quality of the air.
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Fiber is my primary driver when I look for a new location. Starlink is OK but still expensive and not super reliable. Depends what you do for a living, if you work is on the net you could live in Timbuk2 as long as it has fiber :-)
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Location will always be key. If you are in the middle of nowhere, it will always be cheaper because no one will want to live there.
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There will always be more desirable locations on inline areas not so much but definitely those wanting to be coastal there is only that little strip along every coast and if you want it you’ll have to pay . I can’t see that changing unless global warming becomes a thing and all the coastal properties are in danger of becoming water world
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Roll 18h
It will be more or less stable as most of the jobs are in big cities and there are less and less people looking for a job in agriculture du to their conditions...
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