The minimum exchange rate between cowboy credits and sats is 1.43 CC : 1 sat, because CC transactions are taxed at a 30% rate due to sybil fees. However, this exchange rate will never actually be reached because Lightning transactions also introduce fees, and a 1.43:1 exchange rate does not benefit the receiver of CC, who can simply buy them directly from SN at a 1:1 rate. Thus, the exchange rate must be higher than 1.43:1.

Let's say the exchange rate is 2:1. I believe that there would be a demand for CCs at that rate, due to territory fees. Will there be a supply? Currently, the only way to convert CCs directly to sats is through P2P exchange. Indirectly, one can use CCs to participate on SN and earn rewards in sats. I believe some would be willing to sell CCs for sats at a 2:1 exchange rate, since rewards are opaque and not guaranteed.

However, I believe the demand for CCs currently outpaces the amount of CCs available to trade. That's partly because CCs were only recently introduced to the market. There hasn't been time to accumulate. Another reason is that CCs have a half-life. That is, every time they are transacted, 30% of them disappear and are converted to sats through rewards. It's unclear whether there will ever be a large enough supply of CCs to meaningfully cover costs of territory fees.

Personally, I would be willing to buy CCs at a 2:1 exchange rate. Currently, CCs are used by default for posting fees, even when I have an attached wallet. Thus, I fairly quickly run through my supply of CCs. I like to maintain a balance of CCs in case my wallet goes down, which can happen frequently either due to loss of internet or my computer shutting down for whatever reason.

It'll be interesting to see how the market for CCs develops and whether an equilibrium exchange rate will emerge.