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I don't recall ever seeing a poll in econ, so I thought I would make one.
Let's presume the notion that Bitcoin is the pulse of broader markets is correct.
Bitcoin tends to be a leading indicator for movements in other markets. In times of crisis we have seen it crash prior to other markets. We have also seen it lead other markets into bullish periods.
I don't trade anymore and I don't like talking about fiat price (1 sat=1sat after all) but I am going to do it because I do like being a market observer. We have now seen Bitcoin drop around 15% from it's USD ATH.
Could be a regular bull market pullback, or year end profit taking, portfolio rebalancing or potentially signaling some cracks in the foundation of broader markets and the economy.
What do you think stackers?
Regular pullback after big rally41.9%
Year end profit taking 20.9%
Year end portfolio rebalancing 9.3%
Fear of Daddy Fed taking the crack away7.0%
Whale manipulation due to low liquidity14.0%
Bitcoin portends future doom 7.0%
43 votes \ poll ended
It seems a regular pullback. Everything that goes up comes down to go up again. It's like a bird thing.
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I think it's been exaggerated. A 15% from ATH is not new for Bitcoin. We also went to 45k after testing 58k in July. I'm not guessing it, just holding.
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Absolutely. I am more curious if the price is telling us something than I am about the actual price itself.
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I think the Bitcoin price still is inverse to the overall other market optimism. If there is more optimistic news for Gold, bonds, crude and others, bitcoin price falls and it's what happened this time.
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I just sort of expected the holidays to be a bit of a slow down. People who are normally stacking like mad are occupied with family and travel. There are a bunch of fiat expenses around the holidays that are probably being paid with bitcoin sales or foregone bitcoin purchases.
It doesn't feel dramatic enough for an economic portent; especially if you measure by deviation from the price trend (30 days or something like that), rather than from the ATH.
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ETFs have been selling recently which I think is a bit of "year end profit taking", "year end rebalancing" and "fear of daddy fed taking the crack away".
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I dunno... Most are credible candidate.
I picked one, but I really do miss an "all of the above" option!
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It probably is all of the above and I considered that but thought it would be less fun.
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portends future doom
I'm in this camp in this particular case.
I think it's Joe Consorti that has charts showing the correlation to money supply, since that's created through government manipulation and not organically it stands to reason it comes in fits and starts.
Sprinkle in a VIX spike around debt ceiling and budget drama etc... these effect money supply.
Sprinkle in a "transfer of power" coming up in January, that "both sides" elude to being anything but peaceful...
Now today the news I've been waiting for personally... markets closed on Jan 9. 🍿
Volatility wrt Bitcoin can either bullish or bearish (short term), impossible to trade other than being long vol simply for the insurance.
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Good thoughts. I definitely think the cracks in the system are deepening again. We know how they will solve that. Filling them with fiat but the question is how bad will it gets before they do.
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how bad will it get
yep, this is what I think a lot of people miss wrt Bitcoin price action and the money printer... we had to go back to 3k during the fake pandemic to justify a big print, NIRP, etc... what has to happen to get "the big print", as Lawrence Lepard calls it, to end all big prints?
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Meh, probably year end profits. Just HODL and DCAing here enjoying cheap corn
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I think just the usual pullback and the frenzy of the paper hands
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I think it will stay stable during this time until Jan 20th. Then it will rise or fall depending on how the market takes the news. Just the feeling I get.
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It makes sense that a big motivated buyer (MSTR most presume) would push the price up, then as the news spreads to everyone that they're in profit, there'd be selling. That it hasn't fallen faster is thanks to some continued buying pressure. I feel shitty talking like this kind of finance stooge. Stay humble and stack sats people. Time in the market beats timing the market.
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I'm pretty sure that this pullback is gonna short lived. Within a few hours .. maximum 48 hours, you'll see the uptrend returning.
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So you think it is an end of year thing?
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A mixup of Year end and holiday season. But tomorrow and day after tomorrow people are gonna recieve money and they would not back out this buying opportunity.
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I feel like there is more weakness to come. Unfortnately the market is very narrative driven in the short term. In the longer term the supply and demand matters most but in the short term people trade off the fear and greed of the latest news and speculation. When they run out of coins to sell price will rise again.
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You're right but the price seems quite stable atm. It's gone range bound. My analysis say that it won't go below 90k as for now. It seems that they've already run out of coins at 91k.
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Crazy things can happen the next couple day as volume will be very low. I could see more downside or a quick rebound to 95k.
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Let's see. I'm betting for 95 to 98 k.
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No doubt!
The regular pullback after those excellent all-time highs!!
And from here there is no one stopping BTC 📈⚡⚡
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GO BIG IR GO HOME
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realbitcoin doggie woof woof took too much of the punch... drank the Odell Kool-Aid it seems
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Which podcast is his? I know TFTC and the freaks are Marty Bent. Or I think he gave up his show?
Never listened to Odell much but I know he’s popular!
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Citadel Dispatch and he does Rabbit Hole recap with Marty Bent.
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Yes you’re right that was it I remember it being promoted on fountain. And him saying he was done with rabbit hole recap
This is obvious but what annoys me most about the fake or phony influencers is when they “leave” Twitter for good to be nostr only, just to go right back to Twitter when they don’t get enough nostr engagement.
Odell at least seems to be one of the good ones who zaps a lot. Of course, what does that say about me if I think you’re one of the “good ones” just because you zap heavy.
You’re the BEST one @grayruby!! I voted for you for STACKER OF THE YEAR 💯💯
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Thank you but I would prefer if Sports won and I didn’t.
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I voted for BooksAndArticles to win :P
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Nothing wrong with that.
I don't trade, I just buy, but I find all of it to be very interesting.
One of the people I follow on X is rektcapital. He seems to get things right way more often than not. He's not overly specific, which of you're being honest, you can't be.
Anyhow, he says there's going to be a price correction somewhere between week 6 and 9 of the parabolic phase. At the end of week 7 we were down, and now we're getting into week 8.
I'm not willing to gamble on it, but if he is correct, we will be back in price discovery soon enough and continue the parabolic uptrend.
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I don't trade either but I used to many years ago. I actually find it more interesting to observe the market and what crazy traders are doing than to actually participate. Ultimately very few traders can actually beat buy and hold but they sure try.
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Yea, I love watching people Yolo some crazy trade, but I'm not much of a gambler.
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Tax season and year end book keeping.