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Operation Saylor - Episode 30/120

Hi again and welcome to another episode of the Operation Saylor. This is update number 30, corresponding to December 2024.
If you are reading this for first time, you might want to check Episode 1, where my plan and details are explained. That will get you in context.

Stats

  • BTC stack: 1.26540283BTC
  • € stack: 530.20 €
  • Current total value in €: 118,213.66 €
  • € into BTC: 30,000 €
  • Paid back to bank: 10,619.80 €
  • Outstanding debt + interests: 33,324.53 €
  • Installments to go: 91

Charts


Log

Hello again and welcome to another episode of the series. This episode comes after an unplanned break of a couple of months. All is well, life simply kept getting in the way. Apologies for that.
With the extra time between episodes, our little Operation has had time to see its figures change quite a bit recently. You can check the details above, but clearly the simplest visual cue is the blue line in the stack vs debt chart. With the strong price hikes of november and finally breaking through 100K, the value of the Operation's war chest has gone parabollic and keeps leaving the debt behind.
I think it's easy to look at these figures and charts right now and think: "fucking hell, this is clearly a massive win". I personally think it is. By now, I'm assuming I'm not going to see the blue line go below the orange one again at all. But, for new readers or veteran-yet-forgetful ones, this scent of victory wasn't always around. You can simply travel back to earlier episodes (you have a list of links at the bottom of this post) and replay history. You can go read, month by month, how figures were looking like, where my thoughts where and what people discussed during those times. The vibes were clearly not the same as today, and success was anything but granted (or at least that was the mood).
It's funny. Most people will agree that the Speculative Attack makes sense on paper. But then we have this very emotional reactions which go opposite to that rational bit. When the gamble starts, we suddenly feel uncertain about it. When it has clearly worked (as planned), we are surprised and excited about, as if we didn't believe at the start that it would. I include myself in this behaviour. I wonder why we behave this way.
With a strong evidence like this very specific Operation that this works, some readers might be wondering... should I go and do it? And... should I go and do it now?
I'll jump into those questions in the next episode. In the meanwhile, I wish you a good time with your families and great start for 2025. As always, thanks for reading and I'll see you next month.

Previous episodes

Do you think you’re going to do this again in the next bear market in 2026? I’m definitely considering it. As I mentioned in the past, I also took out a loan at the end of 2022 but only €10k.
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Will dive into that next month.
I think there might be a case for doing it earlier.
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👀
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next bear market in 2026
  1. what
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Question… Would you ever consider refinancing this loan when interest rates are inevitably lower?
If not, why?
If so, at what interest rate would that make sense for you and would you keep the same 10 year term, essentially rolling your position further and further into the future?
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That's a good question.
The way I am now reasoning about this is that I've set certain targets about how I want my liabilities to look like. This includes stuff like what should my debt-to-equity %, what % of my monthly income I'm happy to put towards installments or what set of maturities I'm happy sitting on. Kind of how you can have a portfolio allocation plan that says I want this % in this asset and this % in this other asset and I'll rebalance this way if positions drift.
In the case of loans this is a bit harder to manage in a precise way because it's not like you can go acquiring a bit more liabilities every week ("Oh I'm 0.17% off my desired Debt-to-Equity, I'm gonna borrow 327.12$ more"). I can only get debt in big chunks, so it happens that I drift severely from my liabilities targets. But I still have them.
Coming back more precisely to your question: yes, I'm willing to take on more debt or roll my existing one if it improves how my liabilities portfolio looks like or it brings it closer to my desired targets.
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That's a good way to look at it. I've never taken a personal loan before (home loans aside). I'm curious to know what factors your bank considers when deciding how much to lend. I'm assuming debt-to-income ratio and collateral are the biggest, but do they also consider what you're using the loan for? Or don't they care? And (assuming you're with a traditional bank in the EU) would they accept BTC as collateral?
If you've already written about this, I apologize. I've just read your first couple of posts in the series. I need to keep reading.
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No probs.
I guess the behaviour of banks changes a lot across countries.
In my case, personal loans are easy to get if you have a steady income stream, and banks are happy to give away while your installments-to-income stays somewhere under 30-40%. After that, it's very hard to convince them. Their algorithms automatically throw you out.
Regarding what you are using the loan for: they say they care, but they lie. There will probably be a checkbox somewhere to ask about it. You can happily proceed to pick any box (never changes the conditions you are being offered) and they will never ask again or perform any kind of check.
And about loans with collateral: it's an area I'm currently researching about, but I don't have a lot of experience with it either. Surely, no bank around here would touch BTC as collateral, but some might be willing to take other tradfi assets like stocks and mutual funds. Real state is also an option, of course.
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Interesting. Thanks for documenting the journey for us and being so open. This is valuable stuff, keep it up.
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Inspiring! I'll take out a loan myself if btc price hits the bottom again. Thanks
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Last episode I predicted a big Q4 for you. Congrats.
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Indeed, you called it out in August. Good one!
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certainly inspiring as that blue line has had a considerable increase, I also think that there is no fall and the numbers increase, and the best thing for the story that recorded the previous episodes and see how it has been growing and gaining strength over time. let's start the new year with strength.
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Fantastic!
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How is the acquisition strategy by convertible debt different from all the seignorage tokens like OHM (Olympus) ? I mean if you consider the underlying stock of Microstrategy to the OHM token, and being a holder of the equity rather than someone investing in the bonds/notes?
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I don't understand shit from what you said nor see any connection with the OP.
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Yeah my bad, a bit of an autopilot brainfart. At best it was tangentially related to the Saylor strategy. I get the whole strategy is to acquire and hold BTC long term, I thought since we're posting about the strategy someone had an opinion on my question.
The whole question of what happens to equity holders of the debt collateral doesn't really apply unless you're issuing stock of your own (which you're not).
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OHM is a shitcoin
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Its very nice to see the mindest has changed. I always look forward to your episodes. Congrats and Merry Christmas.
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I'm happy for you and thanks for keeping us updated on this interesting experiment. Merry Xmas and look forward to keep reading your thoughts nad insights during your journey.
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