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China's central bank just pulled off its most interesting non-move of 2024. While keeping rates frozen (1-year at 3.1%, 5-year at 3.6%), the real story is playing out in the currency markets, where the yuan is doing its best impression of a tightrope walker.
Dive deeper, and you'll find Beijing trapped in a financial catch-22. October's rate cut already has banks counting pennies, with profit margins thinner than a silicon wafer. But here's where it gets spicy - the yuan's sliding against the dollar like it's on ice, and Ukraine's political turbulence is only adding fuel to the fire.
The Plot Thickens: • Capital's playing hide and seek with dollar-denominated assets • Chinese banks are stuck between a rock and shrinking profits • Every potential rate cut now looks like a loaded gun pointed at the yuan • Foreign investors are watching this game of monetary Jenga with popcorn in hand
Beijing's message is clear: Yuan stability trumps growth aspirations - for now. But with property markets still wobbly and local governments juggling debt, this pause might be more pressure cooker than strategic breather.
The real question: How long can they hold this pose?
47 sats \ 0 replies \ @xz 20 Nov
monetary Jenga
The best description of financial markets to date.
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There is a theme in financial writing of the sort found on zerohedge, which could be summarized, I think, thusly: "how many metaphors can I fit into this information dense paragraph?"..
This post conforms to the pattern and does not disappoint. Thanks for sharing.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 20 Nov
Lol. I am in a good mood on the way to the beach. Nothing will stop this today... have a nice day too
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That sounds positively delightful.
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Have your popcorn and hard assets ready for the show!
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How is the yuan going to stabalize when they are dumping us treasury bonds like water?
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How exactly does the Chinese policy of pegging the Yuans value relative to the USD pose a problem for the Chinese?
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