Warning! PSA bitcoinprediction.market is stalling on paying out many larger bets \ stacker news ~lightning

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They appear to be mostly only paying the smaller bets.

There is no place I could see on the website to contact them.

Have you placed a bet and not been paid out?

@HYPERBITCOINZATION who appears to be involved with the website might comment?

https://stacker.news/HYPERBITCOINZATION

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21 sats \ 15 replies \ @south_korea_ln 7 Nov

Yes, also still waiting for a payment. But they seem to have tried.

@HYPERBITCOINZATION, feel free to send it to south_korea_ln @walletofsatoshi.com or to my SN address here.

55 sats \ 1 reply \ @petertodd 7 Nov

Note that SN has a relatively small maximum payment size, and a limit on total balance. People might be running into issues due to that

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @south_korea_ln 7 Nov

Good point. I do have an attached wallet, so not sure how this limit would affect my case.

102 sats \ 12 replies \ @HYPERBITCOINZATION 7 Nov

The payout should be sent now.

10 sats \ 11 replies \ @south_korea_ln 7 Nov

Well received, thanks!

5 sats \ 10 replies \ @south_korea_ln 7 Nov

Just a quick question: when it says potential return for a bet, is that the amount I am sure to get in case the bet resolves in my favor? Is the percentage locked in from the moment I make the payment? Or does the actual percentage vary until the bet resolves?

0 sats \ 8 replies \ @HYPERBITCOINZATION 7 Nov

The potential return of your bet shown in the UI is your potential return at that current moment in time, but that potential return changes based on the odds. We currently use the parimutuel betting system which calculates payouts based on the total amount wagered. You are allocated a reward in proportion to how much you contributed to your side. The actual percentage ROI you would be rewarded varies until the bet resolves, and that percentage ROI is not currently locked in.

We're looking into building a Bitcoin-based LMSR prediction market that enables you to buy/sell shares where you can lock in a fixed percentage return at some moment in time. It's the system most prediction markets use, and it's superior to the parimutuel betting mechanism for forecasting events.

3 sats \ 0 replies \ @south_korea_ln 7 Nov

Ok, thanks for the clarification. Makes sense, otherwise there'd be free money on the table with some of the current bets where betting on both outcomes at the same time would yield assured profits.

I should have guessed from this message on your main page:

Winners split the losers sats All bets on one outcome go into a pot. When the event occurs, the pot is split proportionally among the winning bets.

Maybe adding somewhere it's parimutuel betting could clarify things further.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 7 Nov

For example my bet-

solomonsatoshi @getalby.com 110100 25351 134350 pending 21/10/2024, 5:40:39 pm

is still pending

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @HYPERBITCOINZATION 7 Nov

Did you receive any payout?

110 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 7 Nov

Received a small one of about 600sats but the larger one of 134350 sats (to alby wallet) -

solomonsatoshi @getalby.com 110100 25351 134350 pending 21/10/2024, 5:40:39 pm

remains unpaid.

Correction! - it just arrived. cheers

reply on another page

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 7 Nov

Any news on when the larger bets will be paid out?

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @HYPERBITCOINZATION 7 Nov

We're paying them out manually as there have been many errors/bugs/pending payments. We can get to yours ASAP.

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 7 Nov

Ok BTW the LMSR system would be a huge improvement as the current system highly incentivises people to leave any betting to the very last minute.

If the current parimutuel system remains in place you would ideally need to put a closing date for placing bets sufficiently in advance of the event to prevent people gaming the system.

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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 7 Nov

No its not locked in- the amount you get ultimately (if you predict correctly) can be very different depending on what bets are placed after yours. Yes the actual percentage varies until the bet resolves. I think this is a problem they have (apart from not paying out larger bets!) in that there is no incentive to lace early bets- for example in the bet on whether BTC would reach USD$80k by 5th Nov you could wait until the last day when it was clear that it would not likely reach $USD80k and place your bet at the last moment.

24 sats \ 1 reply \ @denlillaapan 7 Nov

I was paid out earlier today, but my bet was small (four-digits)

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 7 Nov

Yes most of the smaller bets have been paid out- not so much the larger ones!

25 sats \ 5 replies \ @HYPERBITCOINZATION 7 Nov

Hey we're still working through the payouts. We're going through and sending them out manually because there's some errors with recipient inbound liquidity/routing and many pending payments (lots of zeuspay lightning addresses that need to manually receive).

We have a telegram group here: t.me/bitcoinpredictionmarket

You can also email us at hello @birkeland.sh

We should be finished with on-chain payouts by the end of the week. Send me a message if you have any issues.

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @random_ 7 Nov

Mind doxxing your node?

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @openyoureyes 8 Nov

You can find it out very easy. Create a invoice and copy it. Go to amboss.space and scroll down to tools. Insert invoice in lightning network request decoder. Now you get the payee pubkey. 02d85514f52477d0d664ef6ba18c19fd9a4e243bb88095bf12054db7dc5f67a901 Chek out the node for more details: https://amboss.space/node/02d85514f52477d0d664ef6ba18c19fd9a4e243bb88095bf12054db7dc5f67a901

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @random_ 8 Nov

lol

it's not my first rodeo. just wanted the pubkey.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @openyoureyes 8 Nov

You got it and a explanation how to get it. So what is your problem? Maybe someone else wants to learn something if you dont want to. Or are you only lazy to look it up?

2 sats \ 0 replies \ @random_ 8 Nov

You got it and a explanation how to get it. So what is your problem?

reread this until you get it.

so tilted lol

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @chungkingexpress 7 Nov

I got my pay out, but it was small.

4 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 7 Nov

I'm pretty sure I didn't get paid out, but I haven't dug through my logs to check.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satoshi__Nakamoto 7 Nov

I didn't knew that's one

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 7 Nov

I think I saw I got a payout earlier on the Trump win. There was no description so I can't be sure. I bet 100 sats and I received 144.