I have been thinking about the US elections, like any other normal person in the universe this week.
I live in Europe; we are little dogs near the US, so this is exactly why I think it does matter who wins the elections there.
I tend to believe more in the betting industry and their predictions, rather than in research polls. People put real money in bets and the pools can be easily manipulated and even though statistically is very rare that you meet someone that answered a poll, I indeed have never met anyone that has answered one for elections.
The bets are clear, it will be a landslide victory for Trump, and I must say, first time he was elected, I liked it just because of the chaos and the breaking the status quo that electing a figure like him would bring to politics.
Now, assuming that Trump is elected, and his complete 180 degrees change on Bitcoin, his participation in the big Bitcoin conference earlier this year, how can this impact the price in during his mandate?
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Election and results I believe that his win is already priced in, and we could even have a small correction right after election confirmation. We all know how the market works…
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First year: During his first year in charge, I believe there will be many, many facts, like freeing Ross Ulbricht, setting a federal reserve in Bitcoin, and many other to come and hard to predict, that will make the price spike up. Additionally, 2025 is a post halving year, the price should be going up just naturally as well.
I also believe that Trump will bring a pause to some international conflicts that are going on, as they are mostly financed by the US and the government should be focusing on cutting the public spending – Elon Musk has agreed to help Trump with it, anyone still doubts this guy?
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Second year: The buzz will be over, the problems will start to appear, democrats will try to kill or impeach him at any cost. Bitcoin will swing a bit with these events, mostly trending lower.
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Third year: JD Vance starts to be the name to assume the government for the next years, BTC community gets pumped as JD has always been pro BTC, and is a hodler.
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Fourth year: Halving in May approximately, can you imagine the evolution from now (2024) to 2028, it is crazy how many institutions will have adopted it, governments, it is just impossible not to be very optimistic looking 4 years ahead.
These are my thoughts, anyone that thinks differently?
Obviously, if Kamala wins, well…price goes up on long term, same way, but I just feel like we will be living strange times ahead.
Cheers!
