I try to reflect each month that goes by on how things are going in the Bitcoin ecosystem, overall. Perhaps it would be better to do this reflection on a quarterly or semi-annual basis, but since I am so absorbed into the ecosystem in various ways (podcasts, meetups, reading on SN, Nostr, etc.) I find a month works for me. I like to look away from the price and quiet the chatter for a moment and look at the progress (or lack of progress) that was made.

This month I am feeling... queasy... around macro events and the political landscape. Moreover, I find the rate at which people are being orange pilled and finding themselves at the entrance to the rabbit-hole has declined, at least in my world.

People are certainly feeling the pain around inflation, rising cost of living and overall contempt with where they sit in their world regarding what they can do to get ahead and put their money to work for them. September is historically a low month in the markets and that trend seemed to continue this month, albeit with a late month bounce. But, people still have not found Bitcoin for some reason. Ok, rant over - here is my assessment from where I sit as of today:

Bitcoin has proven it deserves to have a seat at the table. But as what and utilized how exactly? Most of us here would probably agree that it is the best medium of exchange the world has seen since fully backed gold reserves - but even better. Yet, the store of value narrative is what seems to resonate the most with people in the developed world today. Is that not counterproductive to what Bitcoin was designed to do? What good is it sitting in cold storage far away from any real world use in a transaction, or locked up in an ETF vault somewhere at BlackRock or Fidelity?

Perhaps I am simplifying things here too much, but it can serve as both, and it does both jobs extremely well. But for most it seems to be one OR the other - not both. The hardest money ever discovered by man kind, which appreciates in value over time, need not be spent, but saved some say. Yet, if you truly yearn for financial independence and freedom, there is no other tool that serves that need as good as Bitcoin - so by earning, saving and spending in Bitcoin you are truly independent of any 3rd party with surveillance baked in. But for some reason... it just simply cannot do both people think.

Your immediate thought might be SoV always precedes MoE and that is just the way the world works, even in the digital age. But Bitcoin is a monumental evolution of the status quo for money and so many people are just unable to see it. That takes me to my next point...

Let's face it, self custody bitcoin is not simple and straightforward. I could not wish more that this was not the case, and as someone who has an engineering degree and works in tech, I even struggle sometimes with doing certain things on my node or managing my LN channels.

The idea of crossing the chasm and achieving broad adoption is through the path of least technical resistance. Think about it - if every time you used your phone you had to disassemble it and hardwire components together to get it to do what you wanted to do, you just would not use it. People use them because they have been designed and optimized for everyday use by the average person. This is where companies like Apple and Google have a leg up on the decentralized and open sourced community - aggregated and focused efforts on a common goal - with relentless activity until that goal is optimized and achieved. Of course, you must be a centralized entity to achieve this type of consensus and subsequent results, and truthfully that's what makes Bitcoin so great - any one can come forth with a good idea and commit time and energy to see it to fruition - but it is also one of its weakest attributes.

While much progress and achievement has been made in this arena, there is still plenty more to do. We often end up making tradeoffs and balancing between risk, custody, ease of use, security and privacy; yet there is not one panacea that optimizes all of these facets of Bitcoin - moreover, there does not need to be one, not yet any way. We need "easy button" solutions to get people to dip their toe... to have their lightbulb moment and say, "wow, this is actually really interesting, I need to dig deeper!". Many of us here, including myself, have had those very moments - but we need more.

This topic could be a post entirely on its own.. but it's on my mind a lot this month, especially after the recent Saif and Saylor interview. I keep hearing that Bitcoin is going to eclipse the mkt cap of Gold, then some other arbitrary number years after that, and then again, and again, until it eats up all the capital in the world. BUT, none of this can happen without the help of TradFi and Big Banking/Institutions. We all know the purpose of Bitcoin is to obviate the need for these very entities, yet we are also cozying up to them and praying they'll help us hit that next line on the log chart. Bitcoin being captured and manipulated by BlackRock and Coinbase is only going to make things more complicated in the future... so how do we ensure this kind of thing does not happen? Most people own zero bitcoin. Then you have people who own <1 bitcoin. Any one with more than 1 bitcoin I would say is on the tail end of the distribution of the overall global population that has access to bitcoin. 15 years in adoption is still low, per se, but it's moving in the right direction.

Perhaps its all about the long game. Maybe having 0.1 BTC will truly be meaningful in 20-30 years. I think it is meaningful now, but more from a philosophical perspective. The one thing we have going for us is that the global world reserve currency is a massive game of shadows and simultaneous dumpster fire, and they can't create more BTC. However, they can print more money, buy BTC, bail out banks and BlackRock (that allowed you to buy BTC IOU's at the same time) and then print yet again and just buy more BTC. They will eventually catch on... and then what can we do to stop them? This is top of mind as of late...

Queasy with a side of excitement for the future. Any battle worth fighting is a battle that ought to be hard fought. While I may seem pessimistic about where we are today - in parallel I am sharpening my axe and preparing my bow for when the fight truly comes to my doorstep - and I am optimistic we will be armed with the knowledge, tools and people to win that fight.

How are you feeling? Do you agree? Strongly disagree? Feedback, insights and perspectives are welcomed.