If you examine the historical statistics of Bitcoin's Lightning Network — including node count, channel count, and total channel capacity — you will notice a decline since the first quarter of 2022. Over the past two years, it appears that LN is not only stagnating but also contracting significantly. This contraction is surprising, especially considering the seeming all-time high popularity of LN by other metrics. So, what is happening and what does the future hold?
pull down to refresh
Is exactly what I repeated over and over in my guides and on SN...
In conclusion, read what I said here: #486306
And here I made a simple empirical scheme (for siggy) about how will look the LN topology in the future.
https://m.stacker.news/27110
Guides in which I warn and recommend these aspects:
TLDR frothing newbs thought they could make a quick buck are going, POW engaging.
If you apply basic filtering to that node count (nodes that did not update their state in the last 60 days, nodes with no advertized adddress, channels disabled on both sides,,..)
You already diminish to 3500 nodes / 16500 channels /1800BTC currently, according to my node data.
So it would be interesting to see the historic data with such filters included. Because if the number of actually useable nodes is still 1/4 of the raw advertized number, i am not sure we can actually draw advanced conclusions from it
What’s happening is that there is zero adoption by brick and mortar businesses. Thus, the use of LN is limited to enthusiasts and a few online businesses, and when the channels and hubs consolidate, and small nodes go away, there’s no additional growth.
Making a lightning network work is not enough to make it successful as a medium of exchange. Someone needs to go out there and push it and make it worthwhile for shops and businesses to actually accept it.
NOBODY is doing this at all. Literally no one, to the best of my knowledge. This is why it’s not growing.
I don't think there is much desire in the public to buy a cup of coffee with "digital gold" for $3 today, but will have cost you $30 in 5 years.
Greshams Law. "Spend bad money before you spend good money". Currently there is lots and lots of bad money to spend.
This is why I'm also skeptical of the "we need to scale bitcoin" L2 projects. Not against them, just skeptical if there is actual economic demand.
What are the other metrics?
Check the link ;)
I guess it's mostly referring to the River report.
Can you see the statistics for TOR nodes?
While it's not directly related to TOR nodes, I shared this updated report a few days ago, and it's worth checking out. #500891