My most realistic bull scenario, is that there is a split of reserve currencies, and minor nations begin to adopt BTC for international transactions. BTC takes on a "petrol dollar" type of quality, and you hear of nation states using it for larger transactions. It becomes globally recognized store of value for savings across first world nations, and third world nations populations use it in lieu of bank accounts. I think with this it takes on a large enough market cap to get nearer the $500k a coin mark.
Worst case scenario is that it becomes so banned by first world nations that its only held in the fringe, there are only "rogue" states that use it, and it never surpasses a few trillion in market cap.
So I think most would say I'm bullish either way haha.
Most realistic bear case scenario: We stay a niche internet money forever. Like Tor or torrenting or using Arch Linux. That would be frustrating but I think it's not as unlikely as many Bitcoiners think.
If you've ever been in an argument and had the better points and the better rhetoric but still convinced nobody (or got downvoted due to people not being open minded like zombies) you probably know what I mean.
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I think BTC being used behind the scenes (like LN does in many ways) would change things. If Twitter adopted BTC for tips, and users never move past just holding Sats in wallets I think it could move it past it being too niche. But yes I think you make a good Bear case, do you have a Bull scenario to share?
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i think the bear scenarios are more interesting scenarios are more interesting to discuss. We talk about bull cases all the time.
I personally hope the bull case is underground grassroots adoption - instead of top down integration on already big platforms and countries.
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