It’s been a few days that thing was in my head and I can still not figure out how that mechanic is working, so I’m posting to have some of your personal insights because it looks like I am missing some elements here….
Let me present my problem:
The flows of that 11 new BTC ETF are hudge since a month… They are buying hundreds and thousands of bitcoins everyday…
Though, when I am looking at daily volumes, it appears far from these capital flows.
So, I was thinking… well that’s probably what everybody calls Over the Counter buying, meaning I assumed was a way to buy bitcoin from the exchanges ( coinbase and gemini if i am correct for these 11 etfs ) without having to go through the « official » market…
But then, why would we link the recent pumps to the etf flows if these flows never actually get into the « market trades »?
In theory as long as they but from exchanges it should have no repercussion on the price action … so what am i missing here?
Are they buying a certain percentage out of the exchange as well as OTC? Or is the pumping just buying pressure from « retail spot buyers »???
Thank you for sharing your insights…
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20 sats \ 2 replies \ @Voldemort 15 Feb
Is it not just a function of supply and demand, regardless of OTC or whatever else? Increase in demand is outpacing an increase in supply so price goes up.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Anonymous_Hodler OP 15 Feb
No, prices moves with transactions… i nobody transacts, prices don t move… that s my point… by transacting OTC, the price is not supposed to move , but it does obviously…!
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @badabing 15 Feb
Otc IS transacting. What are you talking about?
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @hodlpleb 15 Feb
Because of the ETFs there is more OTC activity than ever before, and less BTC making it into the general supply.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Anonymous_Hodler OP 15 Feb
As of general supply, according to glassnode, exchanges hold 1.8M btc, so i think such pressure isn t correlated
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Anonymous_Hodler OP 15 Feb
That totally doesn t answers my questions lol… you are actually enforcing my point more otc activity should not have any impact on spot prices since there is no public transaction!
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21 sats \ 11 replies \ @badabing 15 Feb
Even if they buy OTC, it still removes (a lot of) supply from the market and will have an effect on price.
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0 sats \ 7 replies \ @Anonymous_Hodler OP 15 Feb
Let s try to be more visual…
Blackrock buys shit ton of btc, decreasing the supply… but doesn t buy anything « on the market »
Then the market orders show buyers and sellers, and these orders are not affected by the diminished supply since this supply is the exchange reserve…
if the supply / demand had an effect on the « public market » there would be no point to trade over the counter, don t you think?
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0 sats \ 6 replies \ @badabing 15 Feb freebie
If OTC is bought up by Blackrock, others will have to start buying on the open market. There's no unlimited OTC supply. If OTC is exhausted, prices spike higher on open market due to exhausted supply.
0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Anonymous_Hodler OP 15 Feb
I agree with the supply demand effect but this effect only have consequences when trades happen!
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @badabing 15 Feb
Otc IS trading. What are you talking about?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Anonymous_Hodler OP 15 Feb
Yes it is trading, but off grid… it s an agreed transaction between the exchange and the client, compared to have the client buying from another client. So instead of buying the btc from another holder, they buy from coinbase « reserve ». That transaction’s volume is then not accounted in the daily public trading volume. Once again , blackrock and coinbase find an agreement on a price and transact , out of the market. So thiese blackrock volumes shouldn’t impact the btc « public price »
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Anonymous_Hodler OP 15 Feb
It is « private trading » so the volume doesn t appear on the spot market , avoiding massive gaps and candles due to the massive orders.
Blackrock buys btc from binance without having their orders being put in the market buy and sell book…
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