I'm reminded of clips of the financial experts right before the 2008 crash saying everything is OK.

We are not out of the woods for sure. This is how it works. We are kicking the can down the road so the crash will be worse.

Very US-centric view, in my opinion.

US inflation has been delegated and pushed down the throats of all the other nations that don't have much choice but to use Dollars as reserve currency.

Yes, the can has been pushed down the road and out of the US.

But yeah, I agree that doomism is a naive worldview. The rich and smart are resilient enough to find a new local equilibrium until the next crisis destabilizes things again... the poor are suffering just a little bit more each time. The middle class gets eroded at every crisis.

I was always quite aware that my own biases leaned towards doomerism, especially hanging out in so many Bitcoin and contrarian spaces. So I would consciously correct for that bias whenever those feelings of impending doom became overwhelming.

You're right that people are resilient. Finance is finance, but what truly matters is the productivity of the people. A financial collapse can gum up the gears for a while, but people will always find a way forward.

good you didn't participate in prediction markets about it, lol 👀

sorry, replied too fast, reading the rest now :)

i have to admit that i don't know much about economy stuff but

how come you think that it's thanks to his actions not despite of his actions?

that isn't clear to me reading your post. is the only variable in a economy really just the interest rate that Powell sets? Or in other words: Does Powell have full reign over the economy or are there other variables he is not in control? (Honest question, as mentioned, I don't know much about this stuff but I would like to know)

I think of it as the tidal flows of the sea. If the establishment can fine tune the credit expansions and credit contractions then the economic sea will appear relatively stable. Doomers predict a devastating tsunami but the establishment will expand and contract credit with relative skill. Bitcoin is our way of building and contributing to an alternative system; it will take to build out. I personally don’t want the current system to collapse as it would hurt the masses more than it harms the parasites.

I agree.

Every time I look at Venezuela or Argentina, I think about how people can live there, and they have been living there for decades of horrible economic policies with inflation at more than 100%.

Yet, still people live there, go to a restaurant, meet with friends, etc.

Same with the war in Ukraine. People still try to maintain a normal life, going out for a movie, etc.

Humans really are incredibly resilient.

That reminded me of the stoics. It's a good idea to practice hardship from time to time, say get a smaller place to live instead of the one you can afford, or don't eat one day, or go out in the cold with not enough clothes.

By putting yourself in those situations you prepare your mind for the times you might actually have to be doing those things not for choice.

It is great because you will be at peace. You know you can deal with anything, because you have been there before and you survived.

I got a lot wrong but I have always had confidence in the desire and capability of central banks and governments to kick the can down the road for longer than we expect.

I don't share your sentiment that the Fed has done a good job. They've done, a job. How do we know the economy wouldn't have recovered on its own faster without the Fed talking it up or down? Or how do we know the mess they had to get out of, wasn't made artificially worse because of their existence? How do we know resources wouldn't have been allocated more effectively, earlier? Or the market would have perhaps cut the fat sooner? We can never know.

But I'm willing to bet their existence made the allocation sub-optimal, even if that means it was less painful in the short-term.

When the central planners control big enough carrots and sticks to make the winners and losers, the game becomes more about guessing which winner and loser will be picked. And when.

What really grinds my gears, is that people can instantly "predict" that a third world country attempting blatant economic manipulation by controlling prices or setting quotas on some random physical good is going to lead to instability and bad outcomes...but when the Fed attempts to control the price of money, everybody has full faith that their central planning is going to work great going forward.

RE: human resilience - the older I get, the more it does seem to be a good bet, to bet with the optimists. To the optimist go the spoils.

i think just as we know bitcoin is inevitable, so is the end of the current system. to pretend to know when and/or how either happens, is naive imo

'we overestimate in the short-term and underestimate in the long run'

i remember being at work, boss often watches CNBC on a spare computer, and seeing the market rip post covid while everyone is telling you the world is falling apart, and thinking what the hell is going on. but that leads me to this thought. i think its important to talk about what is the barometer. How do you measure 'not that bad' its so hard, everything is relative to each individuals situation.

also iirc isnt a big thing, when the debt needs to be refinanced at these higher rates.

The economy is based on belief and the average person doesn’t want to believe in doom and gloom.

Bitcoin is a risk off asset that can trade like risk-on big tech. The asset to hold in good and bad times

I also find myself frequently buying into the doomerism. The insidious part is that I think it has been affecting my health. Physical, mental, emotional, spiritual.

Sometimes I think the pessimistic take is actually the most rational take. But I don't think it's good for humans to live with excessive pessimism...at least not for me. It's almost better if I plug myself back into the matrix and live optimistically.

The other thing I've noticed about doomerism is that the catastrophe is always just around the corner, the goal posts get moved and explained away when things don't materialize. Maybe humans are just really really good at can kicking.

Regardless, I find it maladaptive for myself to focus on doom, even though I might agree with a lot of it.

I know that I am not smart enough to make any predictions. No one is. I watch all the prognosticators on Youtube from all sides of the financial spectrum and none of them know anything either. People like to make big and bold predictions because it gets views and clicks. I'm sure one day we will see another crash but for now things carry on. There is a huge cohort of Millenials and Gen Z's shortly behind them coming into their prime productive years and can keep things chugging along for a while yet. While we are able to be productive things will hang on the secular bull market could continue for a while yet.

Markets are heavily manipulated and those in the know front run. Politicians, company insiders, etc. that’s what I love about bitcoinstrue free and open market! It is open to all and manipulated by none!

Stopped reading when you say “inflation has fallen”

Inflation never falls with fiat currency. The RATE is always positive and they tell you whatever number they want.

The middle class is being destroyed for a 2-class system, haves and have nots.

Unfortunately there isn’t a lot we can do about this, except take our places in the “haves” and start productive self supporting businesses that pay average people their salaries in Bitcoin

There is a lot of ruin in a nation.

I dont know if you are right about the inflation and money printing... I dont believe it is getting that much better. Holding bitcoin is never a bad idea, though.

#bitcoin is the most bullish ever right now. Let me tell you how . During 2012-13 bear market, it took 472 days to break the previous all time high, it took 563 days to break the previous ATH in 2016-17 bear market, it took 721 days to break the previous ATH during 2010-20 bear market, Right now, we are at 469 days from the bottom and price is just 4.94% below the All Time High.

I predicted inflation correctly. That was easy though. Production declined and the government sent people checks. Inflation was the only possibility. In hindsight, that is the only prediction I made. I debated a "doomer" several times that we were not going to experience hyperinflation this year, so if that counts as a prediction I guess I was correct.

Here is the thing about people predicting recessions, depressions, economic chaos and etc. - eventually they will be right. They might be wrong for 10 years, but once there is a recession they always act as if they are some sort of economic prophet despite being wrong more often than they are correct. Predicting a recession in the future is literally the easiest thing one can do. It will happen eventually. Meanwhile, people with opposing views would be correct the majority of the time and wrong once. Somehow "doomers" give more credence to the people who are wrong more often than right.

Maybe shit will hit the fan now that you have thrown the towel? Don't most recessions hit only after rates have passed their peak?