So the letter to shutdown DHS has gone to the agency source plus it has started circulating online…
I do want to note for @mega_dreamer that the source cite highlighted in the post is problematic from the stand point that site only does the operating status in DC. In theory they could deem DC employees essential and any locations outside DC and it would state the operating status as Open
Want to highlight that before people possibly get burned but given the letter has gone out and procedures have begun for a shutdown once it hits midnight in a few hours it should resolve to yes. Polymarket and others have had issues today because the letter went out and they resolved the markets and the markets deemed that the shutdown had to happen Saturday and not today. @Team_Predyx
It’s highly disappointing to see what th response has been from Predyx given the extremely problematic way it wants it to be proven. Polymarket and Kelshi are having a terrible time on social media because of how bad the working was
Hi @Cje95 I understand your concerns and I acknowledge the letter posted by you as I know you work at the congress. I will personally compensate you with the winning amount as we're stacker.news friends. And so sorry for the inconvenience caused.
Now that we know the govt doesn't always update the status on: https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ we will try not to use that as a source and consult you to create an air-tight resolution criteria going forward.
However, prediction markets work differently when it comes to Resolution Criteria/Rules. For every markets one clear source is defined for to avoid ambiguity like these. If the rules says as:
Resolution Source
OPM Operating Status page:
https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/
Then we must follow the rules of the source for air-tight resolutions.
As you know same thing has been happening at Polymakret: https://polymarket.com/event/another-us-government-shutdown-by-february-14
Predyx's resolution criteria matches exactly with Polymakret.
I have same market on manifold: https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/another-us-government-shutdown-befo
However Kalshi chose a different criteria: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovtshutdown/will-the-government-shut-down/kxgovtshutdown-26feb14
Kalshi did not use: https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ as source.
I appreciate making it right and just to show I’m not crazy here is a screenshot I took a half an hour ago of the website. It’s supposed to operate as the DC so eastern time zone but it was labeled as one from the future lol
I totally understand now - going forward, we will never use this source, lesson learned. https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/
Can you please send me an invoice for 50k?
It shouldn't matter if everyone is deemed essential, should it?
A shut down has more to do with funding than operations, as I understand it.
It’s the way that they want to resolve it. It’s honestly just not what people use in government that site is more for visitors than anyone. The FAQs show the huge issue with it.
It’s why when I did the last one I didn’t use the wording they used because it’s a problem.
idiot statist