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The historical correlation between the DXY and 10-year rates is broken.

Traditionally, a strong dollar accompanies high yields. But since mid-2024, the DXY has fallen significantly while yields have remained high at around 4.5%.

This movement suggests that other factors are dominating exchange rate dynamics: capital flows to emerging markets, expectations of global monetary policy, and US fiscal issues.

Hmm 🤔

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Woot! Bond rates to the moon!

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Sort of looks like yield is clipping, i.e. there's artificial suppression. Perhaps demand for treasuries is being manufactured.

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