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Years ago I eagerly read the original "Blue Zone" book (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09L5RSR11). There's a whole slew of them now, from cookbooks to life advice book. I've discarded the whole thing, since I went carnivore.

Recently, we had some friends over for dinner, and they're both big proponents of the Blue Zone diet. It's not surprising, the idea was packaged really well. For the dinner, beef was out, but salmon was fine, so it all worked out. But talking about their diet made me delve further into the whole Blue Zone thing, and how the concept has fared.

Here's a summary of what blue zones are supposed to be from Dr Saul Justin Newman, who won an "Ig Noble" prize" for his research: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2024/sep/analysis-data-extreme-human-ageing-rotten-inside-out:

The epitome of this is blue zones, which are regions where people supposedly reach age 100 at a remarkable rate. For almost 20 years, they have been marketed to the public. They’re the subject of tons of scientific work, a popular Netflix documentary, tons of cookbooks about things like the Mediterranean diet, and so on.

The locations in the original book were these:

  • Okinawa, Japan
  • Sardinia, Italy
  • Nicoya Costa Rica
  • Ikaria, Greece
  • Loma Linda, California

Here's some of the characteristics of the "blue zone diet":

  • Food is 95% plant based. Meat is a condiment, not a main course. Meat (usually pork) is eaten only about 5 times per month, and the serving size is small.
  • Beans are a focus, eaten daily, at most meals.
  • Veggies and carbs round out meals

There were other commonalities that they identified as well (sense of community, physical activity, etc), but these are the food related ones.

But this idea, that places exist where it's common for people to live to 100, has been proven to be completely false. The vast majority of the 100 year olds are dead, but not reported, so that their children can continue to receive the pensions.

More from Dr Newman:

Regions where people most often reach 100-110 years old are the ones where there’s the most pressure to commit pension fraud, and they also have the worst records. For example, the best place to reach 105 in England is Tower Hamlets. It has more 105-year-olds than all of the rich places in England put together. It’s closely followed by downtown Manchester, Liverpool and Hull. Yet these places have the lowest frequency of 90-year-olds and are rated by the UK as the worst places to be an old person.
I just put out a preprint analysing the last 72 years of UN data on mortality. The places consistently reaching 100 at the highest rates according to the UN are Thailand, Malawi, Western Sahara (which doesn’t have a government) and Puerto Rico, where birth certificates were cancelled completely as a legal document in 2010 because they were so full of pension fraud. This data is just rotten from the inside out.

It really makes me think of the saying "A lie can travel halfway across the world before the truth has put its shoes on."

And it continues. The Netflix documentary on the blue zones is from 2023 - well after the claims of certain areas having exceptionally high longevity were debunked: https://www.bluezones.com/documentary/

And blue zones is now a trademarked concept. In 2024, Blue Zones, LLC was acquired by Adventist Health, a faith-based nonprofit health system operated by the Seventh-day Adventist Church. And for anyone that doesn't know, the Seventh-day Adventist Church are religiously vegetarian/vegan.

So they now have an even stronger incentive to ignore the truth about this data.

I've heard this before. It's hilarious and won't surprise anyone who thinks like an economist.

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Follow the incentives, right?

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Exactly. For instance, there was a very brief lapse in US inheritance taxes once and more people died during those few days.

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Dang. I hope they just finagled the date of death, and their offspring didn't ... off them.

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A little from column A and a little from column B

My recollection is that the primary suspected mechanism was extremely terminal family members opting to go off life support during those few days.

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People get angry at me sometimes for thinking like an economist

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No wonder. It's super annoying.

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The truth hurts

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94 sats \ 1 reply \ @freetx 13h
The vast majority of the 100 year olds are dead, but not reported, so that their children can continue to receive the pensions.

Ha.

Unrelated but have you heard about the legit "oldest confirmed modern person" story?

Jeanne Calment of France.

She lived in a very desirable apartment in Paris. In 1965, when Calment was 90, she entered a contract with her lawyer, then 47; she kept the right to live in the apartment for life, and he agreed to pay her 2,500 francs per month until she died.

By 1995 her lawyer died at age 77 - Calment was then 120 yrs old! - he never got to take possession.

The arrangement was carried on by his heirs who continued to pay Calment the agreed stipend until she finally died a few years later at 122.

When asked about it, she said: "What can I say, he made a bad deal..."

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I like this story!!

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yup, it's all just humbug fraud fad nonsense.

Alex Tabarrok got me onto this a few years ago: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/the-real-secret-of-blue-zones.html

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very dubious that these sorts of observational studies mean anything at all

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Humbug, fraud, fad, nonsense - and yet still the average person who's health conscious hasn't heard nothing of that angle. They still believe there's the magical communities of people who live forever mostly because they eat the right plants and strictly limit meat.

Heck, that was me maybe 5 years ago.

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I liked the documentary! Was fun

Long story short. Stay active and moving to live a long life

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I have a friend from sardinia and her grand-father is over 100 years old driving and living like a 70 yo individual. He was always a muratore, very physical job, fought in WW2. IMO opinion is not only the diet, but living in a small town not working 9to5 in an office and physical work helps a lot.

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I think that's the reason it sounds appealing - it's not just the diet, it's also the community, being outdoors, having a balanced life. Sounds great.

Too bad it appears to mostly be based on pension fraud.

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any small town in southern italy will have those characteristics, just be careful with the mafia in some places.

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