Hey guys, as some of you know, I am based in Bulgaria and have talked about the Euro before. Totally sick of hearing about it at this point, but it's here, and that's all there is to it.
Anyway, saw this op ed today called Brussels is welcoming the EU’s next crisis with open arms
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/01/01/brussels-is-welcoming-the-eus-next-crisis-with-open-arms/
Since SN is always keen for a bash on Europe, i thought i would ask what you think - the author's main line of thought is :
A succession of unstable governments will ramp up spending to stay in power. Money will be siphoned off to cronies, and borrowing, now implicitly backed by the European Central Bank (ECB), will grow and grow until the racket becomes unsustainable, the markets pull the plu,g and the economy crashes. In short, it will be the Greek crisis all over again.
The trouble is, the eurozone is in far worse shape than when the last crisis erupted in 2010. France’s debts have spiralled out of control. Its debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 81pc to 114pc. Germany has embarked on a massive debt-fuelled spending spree, and is no longer in any position to bail out its neighbours.
The EU itself has now taken on massive debts. We have no real idea what the ECB’s balance sheet looks like after years of covert market intervention.
Personally, it does sound like a textbook government move and does sound plausible.
What do you guys think?
No the Eurozone will not collapse Patrick. Some of you people have a boner for the apocalypse to the point of being delusional about reality. 🤣
Do you see influx from North-Western companies into Bulgaria? Or Austrian? I always feel like the politicians are like a hammer and see every problem as a nail (political issue.)
When I look at some of the shitty solutions I've seen for Romanians working remotely for German / Dutch / Danish companies for a crap salary while the middleman agency rakes in 100s of millions, I cannot help but think that there must be better ways to actually do regional development rather than exploitation.
i think the main influx of foriegn companies was when Bulgaria joined the euro zone in general, it seems like the most popular thing is German supermarkets and call centers for western companies, better than India, and maybe not too expensive i guess. Apparently, the Bulgarian IT wokers are also good
That sounds plausible. It's hard to predict with confidence because so many of Europe's problems are own-goals.
If Europe stopped firing on its own net it would be much more competitive and might be able to grow its way out of some of these fiscal problems.
i mean, obviously, Europe can't help itself on that front, i just wonder what a collapse of the eu block looks like
maybe a similar fate to hyperinflation in other countries, just across a block of countries, use the printer, bail in haircut the savings, find more things to tax
It probably depends on who's holding the bag at the end.
If it's EU cronies, then there will be bail-ins to save them. If it's other people, then they may just allow a default of some sort and attempt a monetary reset.
I'd expect hyperinflation only once it looks like the entire EU experiment is coming to an end.
USA facing insolvency too...
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/the-next-class-of-senators-wont-be-able-to-dodge-the-social-security-crunch-67193b54
You need to either raise taxes, reduce entitlements, or both.
The sense of entitlement is the problem.
China will ultimately bailout the EU, and US, with conditions of course- just as they did post GFC...
The reset will involve a new regime of international institutions and protocols.
China has won the trade war and from that monetary hegemony ultimately derives as it has done throughout history.
Fair question and a reasonable concern it doesn’t sound far fetched given past eurozone crises, even if the op-ed leans a bit dramatic.
When governments know that the ECB will stand behind them in a crisis the discipline of the market is weakened. Leaders can postpone difficult reforms and keep spending high to maintain short term popularity. That works until confidence erodes and investors start asking hard questions about repayment capacity. The comparison to Greece is apt but the stakes today are larger because the imbalances involve the core members as well as the periphery. If France’s debt ratio is truly at 114 percent and Germany is no longer the backstop the system relies on then the safety net is thin. What makes this more dangerous is that the EU itself is now a borrower which ties the fortunes of all members together more tightly. That integration was meant to create stability but without fiscal discipline across the bloc it can magnify the shock when things go wrong. The question is not whether the numbers look worrying the question is whether there is a credible path to reduce them before the next downturn forces a reckoning.
I knoooow, I do it all the tiiiime Sowwie
re your article: yes, it's all fucked. There's DEF no way out (#1400983), bar some Milei-type character
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